ASML Stock Price Forecast - ASML Near $1,350; NASDAQ:ASML Joins $500B Club On AI Memory Supercycle And EUV Ramp

NASDAQ:ASML – AI Lithography Leader Above $1,330 With $500B Valuation

NASDAQ:ASML trades around $1,335–$1,350, up roughly +5.7% on the day after a +$71.98 move from a previous close at $1,263.72. The 52-week range runs from $578.51 to a fresh high near $1,358.00, putting market cap near $517.6B with a P/E of ~47.4x and a 0.55% dividend yield. Average volume is about 1.4M shares, so this is a highly liquid large-cap. Day range at $1,331.66–$1,358.00 shows buyers are willing to pay near the top of the band as AI and foundry capex re-rate the stock. Real-time structure and intraday flows sit here: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/ASML/real_time_chart.

Revenue, Margins And Cash Engine Of NASDAQ:ASML

Latest quarterly numbers show revenue around €7.52B, up 0.65% YoY, with net income near €2.12B, growing 2.31% YoY. That implies a net margin of roughly 28.3%, which is extremely high for a capital equipment maker. EPS sits at about €5.49, up nearly 4% YoY, while EBITDA of €2.74B is ahead by 2.47%. The key point: even in what management calls a digestion phase, NASDAQ:ASML holds premium margins and small but positive top-line growth, which tells you demand for EUV and advanced DUV tools has not collapsed; it is simply transitioning into the AI-heavy mix. A net margin above 28% plus double-digit returns on capital means every cycle dollar that comes back through AI memory and logic falls through the P&L with strong operating leverage.

Balance Sheet Strength, Returns And Capital Allocation For NASDAQ:ASML

On the balance sheet, total assets run near €45.1B, up roughly 8% YoY, against total liabilities of about €26.1B, rising less than 2% YoY. That leaves equity close to €18.99B, with cash and short-term investments at €5.13B, up almost 3% YoY. Return on assets sits around 13.7%, while return on capital is close to 28.7%. Those numbers are closer to a dominant software platform than a traditional equipment supplier and are the real reason NASDAQ:ASML commands a premium multiple. On cash flow, the quarter you gave shows net income ~€2.12B, cash from operations only ~€559M (down more than 40% YoY), cash from investing about -€1.93B, cash from financing about -€742M, and a net cash change of -€2.12B. Free cash flow still reached about €1.61B, up over 90% YoY, which tells you working capital and capex swings distort the operating line, but the underlying FCF engine remains powerful. Management is clearly leaning into heavy investment in High-NA EUV and capacity while still throwing off more than €1.5B of free cash per quarter.

AI Memory Supercycle And DRAM 1c Demand For NASDAQ:ASML

The AI memory story is the first structural leg of the next up-cycle for NASDAQ:ASML. DRAM inventories across high-end server suppliers are tight and weeks of stock are low by historical standards, while 2026 price grids for DDR4 256GB and DDR5 512GB point to sharp expected price gains as AI workloads absorb capacity. DRAM makers cannot serve that demand on old 20nm-class nodes; they need DRAM 1c and similar advanced nodes with denser cells and more complex patterning. Those nodes add lithography steps and, more importantly, introduce EUV into DRAM at scale. That shift means every new DRAM 1c fab line carries a larger tool budget for NASDAQ:ASML, both in EUV systems and in high-end DUV layers. The order book will capture this as higher net bookings, a rising book-to-bill ratio and a richer mix tilted toward memory again as AI servers ramp. You are effectively seeing AI demand converted into long-cycle tool revenue three or four layers upstream.

High-NA EUV Ramp And Margin Expansion Path For NASDAQ:ASML

The TWINSCAN EXE:5200B High-NA EUV platform is the second major leg. Early units are installed at leading customers for nodes such as 14A, with volume production targeted around 2027–2028. High-NA lifts numerical aperture from the standard EUV level into a higher band, which allows tighter pitches with fewer multi-patterning steps. In practice, that means logic and DRAM at 2nm-class geometries can be printed with fewer masks and cleaner process windows. Right now, High-NA is still dilutive to group margins because factory and field infrastructure are sized for future volumes while only a small number of tools ship each year. Management’s long-term guide is 56–60% gross margin by 2030, versus low-50s today, and the lever is simple: once High-NA moves into high-volume manufacturing, those fixed costs spread across a much larger installed base. If annual EUV shipments move from roughly 48 units (trailing twelve-month level) toward 75–80 units, and High-NA goes from single-digit shipments to a visible fleet, the gross margin mix shifts decisively in favor of NASDAQ:ASML. That is the core of the 2030 profitability story.

China Mix, Export Limits And Geopolitical Pressure On NASDAQ:ASML

China has been an important but temporary amplifier. Over the last several quarters, Chinese customers have driven roughly one-third of total revenue, far above the long-term norm in the mid-teens. That spike came from pull-forward buying ahead of export controls on both advanced EUV and certain DUV systems. Management has already signalled that 2026 China demand will be “significantly lower” than the 2024–2025 peak, while still expecting 2026 net sales not to fall below 2025. The implication is straightforward: the mix will rotate back toward the U.S., Taiwan, Korea and Europe as AI logic and DRAM capex ramps there. Export restrictions and counter-measures on critical materials force NASDAQ:ASML to hold more inventory and diversify its suppliers, which hits working capital and adds some execution risk. The technology moat is still intact; there is no realistic EUV competitor at scale, but geopolitics can change quarterly revenue shape, especially if another round of controls hits either service access or installed-base upgrades in China.

TSMC Capex, AI Logic And External Demand Signal For NASDAQ:ASML

On the logic side, the clearest external confirmation of the bull case is the capex path at leading foundries. Recent guidance from the top customer points to 2026 capital investments near $56B, up from prior expectations and driven directly by AI chip demand. That same customer is expected to be capable of installing 40–45 EUV tools in 2027 as it lifts advanced capacity by 40–50%. Aggregated across the industry, independent estimates put potential EUV demand at 75–80 tools per year, which is close to ASML’s EUV capacity ceiling. Once you overlay that on the DRAM 1c memory narrative, you get a combined AI infrastructure cycle where: logic nodes at 3nm and below are heavy EUV users with double-digit exposures per wafer, DRAM shifts to EUV-enabled nodes, and trailing nodes still consume DUV and service. The latest price reaction confirms how the market reads that signal. After the strong Q4 from the leading foundry, NASDAQ:ASML stock spiked over 6–7% intraday, pushing valuation beyond $500B and taking the ADR to new highs near $1,350.

Macro Backdrop, FX And Valuation Levels For NASDAQ:ASML

Macro data are supportive but not extreme. U.S. retail sales up 0.6% month-on-month and PPI running around 3.0% year-on-year signal a still-resilient U.S. consumer with controlled but present inflation. The Dollar Index near 99 shows a firm dollar but not a blow-off move. For NASDAQ:ASML, the main macro impact is on the discount rate and on the customers’ ability to finance multi-billion capex programs; both still look manageable. At about $1,335–$1,350, the stock trades at a trailing P/E near 47x. On a reasonable forward EPS bridge, assuming growth in 2026 and some margin expansion, forward P/E sits in the low-40s. Peer equipment names cluster in the low-30s forward, so NASDAQ:ASML carries a premium of roughly 30% versus large-cap semicap averages. Historically, that premium often sat closer to 50–60%, so the stock is expensive in absolute terms but not at peak relative euphoria. You are paying for a unique monopoly on EUV and High-NA plus a visible path to higher margins and structurally higher tool intensity per wafer.

Bull, Bear And Verdict: NASDAQ:ASML Is A High-Quality BUY With Cycle Risk

The bull case for NASDAQ:ASML rests on three hard pillars. First, the AI memory supercycle tightens DRAM and drives DRAM 1c and beyond, which increases EUV and DUV tool intensity per fab. Second, High-NA EUV transitions from R&D cost center to volume business between 2027 and 2029, pushing gross margin toward 56–60% and lifting operating leverage. Third, leading foundries are committing tens of billions of dollars in capex, with AI logic nodes demanding more EUV layers per wafer than any previous generation. The bear case focuses on a potential air-pocket when China orders fall back to normal, export restrictions tighten again, or AI capex overshoots and leaves excess capacity around 2028. Any of those can compress the multiple from the 47x zone even if long-term earnings hold. Putting the pieces together, at roughly $1,335–$1,350 with a market cap above $500B, strong net margin near 28%, high-20s returns on capital, and a credible roadmap to higher EUV volumes and High-NA scale, NASDAQ:ASML is not cheap but it is justified as a Buy rather than a Hold. The business is structurally tied to AI infrastructure in a way no other equipment name can replicate, and the current relative premium versus peers is closer to the low end of its own history than the top.

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