Bitcoin Battles $106K — Will $100K Trigger the Bounce Back to $120K?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Struggles at $106K Resistance as Traders Eye Liquidity Trap Near $100K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is once again showing signs of exhaustion below the critical $106,000 threshold, currently trading around $105,330, approximately 6% below its all-time high of $111,980. Despite a strong rebound from April's low near $74,000, the current consolidation between $104,000 and $106,000 signals a period of indecision fueled by geopolitical tension, ETF outflows, and looming macroeconomic catalysts.

Support Builds Around $100K as Traders Anticipate Liquidity Sweep

The psychological level at $100,000 remains a magnet for trader attention, with multiple liquidity clusters forming just below that zone. According to CoinGlass data, $170 million in bid orders are stacked around $93,200, signaling possible downside grabs before any sustainable upside breakout. This area coincides with the 150EMA on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing its role as a critical battleground.

Pseudonymous analyst CrypNuevo notes: “$100K is a strong psychological level and liquidity tends to stack here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flush to $99K before recovery.” Meanwhile, AlphaBTC warns that a failure to hold $100K could lead to a deeper slide toward $90,000, a zone backed by the market value to realized value (MVRV) model.

ETF Inflows Falter, Institutional Appetite Wanes

After consistent gains in April, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now witnessing outflows for three straight sessions. Monday alone saw $267.52 million in net redemptions, according to SoSoValue. If this trend continues, it could undermine the institutional floor that helped BTC reclaim its $90K+ levels last month.

Bitfinex noted in a report that "Bitcoin’s recent pullback isn’t purely technical; it’s a response to renewed macro pressure from U.S. tariff policy and surging 30-year Treasury yields now above 5%." These economic jitters, paired with risk-off sentiment from Middle East conflict escalation, have led investors to rotate into traditional safe-haven assets like Gold (XAU), further stalling BTC’s rally.

Technical Indicators Suggest Bearish Bias Amid Sideways Drift

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 52, tipping downward toward the neutral 50 level, suggesting fading bullish momentum. The MACD histogram is showing increasing red bars below the signal line, reinforcing short-term bearish divergence.

Should BTC-USD lose the $100K mark, the next downside levels are $93,200, $89,000, and $82,000, all previously marked as support during late Q1 dips. On the upside, a successful close above $106,406 would open the door to challenge resistance at $109,000 and retest the all-time high at $111,980.

Monero (XMR) Outpaces BTC With 86% YTD Surge

While Bitcoin posts a respectable 12% YTD gain, privacy coin Monero (XMR) has surged 86%, significantly outperforming BTC. The XMR/BTC ratio recently broke out of a double-bottom pattern at 0.00165, and analysts point to Ichimoku cloud clearance as evidence of a sustained bullish reversal.

This divergence underlines a potential rotation from BTC to altcoins as traders seek asymmetric upside. However, the key support near the double-top neckline remains crucial for XMR to maintain its lead.

Forecasts Remain Bullish Long-Term But Show Near-Term Caution

Major forecasts remain aggressive despite current turbulence:

• Standard Chartered targets $200K BTC by end of 2025, with $120K as an interim target.

• VanEck sees a dual-peak scenario in 2025 with a cycle high of $180,000.

• ARK Invest reiterates its base-case target of $1.2 million by 2030.

Short-term, however, caution dominates. Market makers anticipate sideways movement through June ahead of the FOMC decision on June 18, which could shift liquidity conditions dramatically. For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $100,000 support will determine whether it can sustain its post-halving bullish trajectory or revert into deeper correction mode.

Verdict: BTC-USD is in a neutral-to-bearish zone in the short term. Hold if above $100K, but prepare for downside pressure toward $93K if liquidity grabs accelerate. A breakout above $106,406 flips the narrative back to bullish.

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