Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Reclaims $93k as $240M ETF Inflows and Vanguard’s Entry Signal Institutional Revival

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF Inflows Surge $240 Million as IBIT Leads and Vanguard’s Policy Shift Triggers Institutional Reentry

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rallied sharply above $93,000, gaining 7.4% in 24 hours, as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $240 million in new inflows, ending a six-day losing streak. The move marks a pivotal return of institutional confidence following weeks of outflows. The latest data shows U.S. crypto funds dominating global allocations, with $994 million entering U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs out of $1.1 billion in total digital asset inflows last week, fully reversing November’s $4.7 billion cumulative outflow.

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF Leads Bitcoin’s Institutional Demand

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) once again topped inflows with $120.14 million in a single day, pushing its cumulative total to $62.62 billion, representing more than half of all Bitcoin ETF capital raised since January 2024. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with $21.85 million in new allocations, lifting its total to $12.12 billion, while Bitwise’s BITB brought in $7.44 million, bringing cumulative inflows to $2.26 billion. Altogether, Bitcoin ETFs now hold $119.6 billion in assets under management, with trading volume reaching $5.26 billion on December 2, confirming the magnitude of institutional rotation into Bitcoin as the preferred store-of-value instrument among regulated vehicles.

ARKB and GBTC Display Divergent Institutional Behavior

While most Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows, ARK Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB ETF suffered a significant $90.94 million outflow, reducing cumulative inflows to $1.74 billion. Grayscale’s GBTC, which continues to experience investor migration away from its legacy structure, now reports $25.02 billion in net outflows since conversion, while the newer Grayscale BTC ETF shows a healthier $1.96 billion in inflows. This shift underlines a structural migration from older, higher-fee products toward new-generation ETFs offering tighter spreads and improved regulatory clarity.

Vanguard’s Access and Bank of America’s Allocation Policies Reignite Flows

A major catalyst behind the rebound has been Vanguard’s reversal of its anti-crypto stance, which now allows over 50 million clients to access spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs. The policy shift provides direct brokerage access for investors who were previously locked out of regulated crypto markets, significantly expanding potential liquidity. Simultaneously, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) approved 15,000 wealth advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs as part of diversified client portfolios, with guidance suggesting 1% to 4% exposure in crypto. Analysts estimate these changes could unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand through regulated ETF channels by early 2026.

Macro Liquidity and Federal Reserve Policy Drive ETF Demand

ETF momentum is also reinforced by a supportive macro backdrop. The Federal Reserve has effectively paused quantitative tightening and injected $13.5 billion in short-term liquidity, while prediction markets now assign a 90% probability to a rate cut on December 10. With U.S. yields retreating and Core PCE inflation easing to 2.4%, institutional allocators have rotated back into high-beta assets such as BTC-USD, which benefits directly from easing liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin Outperforms Ethereum as ETF Rotation Intensifies

On December 2, Ethereum ETFs posted $9.91 million in outflows following $79 million in redemptions the prior day, reflecting cooling demand after the Fusaka upgrade. By contrast, XRP ETFs logged $67.74 million in inflows and Solana ETFs added $45.77 million, while Bitcoin ETFs remained the primary inflow driver. Bitcoin’s renewed dominance signals a tactical preference for stability and depth over speculative Layer-1 exposure, reaffirming BTC’s position as the institutional anchor in the crypto asset class.

Technical Overview: BTC-USD Clears $93K, Faces $95K Resistance Zone

Technically, BTC-USD rebounded from $86,000 lows to $93,010, its best performance in two weeks. The daily structure shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming a return to bullish territory. Immediate support lies at $91,000, with secondary cushions at $89,000 and $85,000. Resistance remains concentrated between $94,000 and $95,400, where major Fibonacci levels align with the 50-day SMA. A breakout above $95,400 opens a pathway toward $98,000–$102,000, with upside projections extending to $108,000–$110,000 in the medium term. RSI has recovered to 52.8, and open interest exceeds $130 billion, showing renewed confidence in leveraged positioning.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Dominates Market Share and Liquidity

IBIT remains the undisputed benchmark for institutional exposure, commanding over 40% of total ETF trading activity. Data shows an 8% week-over-week increase in large block transactions exceeding $5 million, reflecting strong activity from sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and macro hedge funds. The ETF’s on-chain backing surpasses 650,000 BTC, equivalent to 3.1% of total circulating supply, underscoring its systemic importance to market liquidity and volatility compression.

Global Distribution of Bitcoin ETF Inflows

The United States continues to dominate with $994 million in weekly inflows, followed by Canada at $98 million, Switzerland at $24 million, while Germany recorded $57 million in outflows, mostly from inverse Bitcoin products. Short Bitcoin ETPs saw $1.9 billion in withdrawals, confirming a strong directional bias toward long exposure. The global rotation from hedge positions to outright buying aligns with the rising confidence in the ETF-backed price structure of BTC-USD.

Institutional Shift From Exchanges to ETFs

Institutional portfolios are transitioning away from direct exchange holdings toward ETF-based exposure. Exchange Bitcoin balances dropped 1.3% month-over-month, while ETF-held reserves rose 4.8%, indicating direct substitution of self-custody with regulated fund vehicles. This structural change enhances transparency, reduces counterparty risk, and provides liquidity depth, reinforcing Bitcoin’s stability above $90,000 despite reduced retail volumes.

Derivative Market Stability Supports ETF Rally

Futures open interest increased 6.2% week-over-week, reaching $130 billion, while implied volatility on CME fell from 59% to 52%, reflecting decreasing downside hedging. Options data on Deribit show call dominance of 62%, with traders pricing a 35% probability of BTC above $100,000 by January 2026. The combination of lower volatility, sustained inflows, and institutional accumulation forms a supportive technical base for further ETF-driven appreciation.

Institutional Strategy and IBIT’s Market Command

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF accounts for 54% of all Bitcoin ETF allocations, reflecting strategic institutional preference for its scale and execution efficiency. Average holding duration now exceeds 70 days, consistent with long-term allocation rather than speculative rotation. Both Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB report similar accumulation trends, confirming steady capital inflow from pension funds and asset managers seeking inflation-hedged digital exposure.

Market Sentiment, Price Forecasts, and Forward Outlook

Sentiment indicators remain moderate despite the rebound, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index holding at 23, suggesting the rally is underowned rather than overbought. Analysts forecast that if ETF inflows sustain above $200 million weekly, BTC-USD could advance toward $110,000–$125,000 by mid-2025, with potential peaks at $140,000 by 2026. The “Vanguard Effect” is projected to contribute $500 million monthly inflows, while Bank of America’s adviser network may inject additional capital as institutional adoption deepens.

Final Assessment on BTC-USD ETF Positioning

Given the strength of inflows, the macro liquidity backdrop, and institutional adoption, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is rated Buy, with a 12-month target of $108,000–$125,000. The dominance of BlackRock’s IBIT, the policy reversal by Vanguard, and consistent ETF accumulation confirm that Bitcoin remains the cornerstone of institutional crypto allocation. Unless macro liquidity reverses or ETF flows collapse below the $50 million daily threshold, Bitcoin’s structure remains decisively bullish, supported by deep institutional conviction and expanding ETF-based liquidity.

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