Bitcoin Drops 6% After $111K Peak – Time to Buy or Brace for a Bigger Fall?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Tests $105K After ETF Rally Fades and Options Expiry Sparks Volatility

What Will Drive Bitcoin's Next Big Move—A Breakout or Breakdown?

Regulatory Shakeups Collide with Technical Fragility Near $105,000

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $105,600, having dropped over 5.2% from its May 22 peak of $111,970. Despite this slide, the token remains up 11.59% over the past 30 days. However, an intensifying mix of options expiry pressure, quantum security concerns, and changing macro dynamics has sparked rising fear among bulls as BTC threatens to test the psychological $100,000 support.

The SEC’s surprise retreat from its case against Binance, combined with the House’s Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, represents a regulatory turning point. Binance called it a “huge win for crypto,” reinforcing growing political momentum toward structured crypto frameworks under the incoming U.S. administration. Yet the market hasn’t rallied — a sign that sentiment is being driven by broader factors than just litigation wins.

$9.83B in Options Expiry: Is Bitcoin Being Pushed to Max Pain at $100K?

On May 30, the market faced the largest options expiry in months: 92,501 Bitcoin options, split between 48,880 calls and 43,620 puts, representing $9.825 billion in notional value. The Put/Call Ratio sits at 0.89, slightly favoring bulls, but the Max Pain level of $100,000 has begun to act like a gravitational pull. Traders expecting sideways price movement are attempting to push BTC toward this zone to capture maximum profit.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin volume surged 15.45% to $58.37 billion, confirming high participation from both bulls and bears around these expiration dynamics. Technicals are deteriorating: RSI at 54 is pointing down, and MACD shows increasing bearish histogram bars, both signaling waning momentum.

Institutional Demand Holding Steady—But ETF Inflows Aren’t Lifting Spot Prices

Despite the recent correction, Bitcoin ETFs brought in $2.75 billion in the week ending May 23, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone attracting over $6.2 billion in May. The fund now controls nearly 3% of total BTC supply, representing about $70 billion in current valuation. But why hasn’t BTC responded?

Analysts note that institutional flows via ETFs often don’t impact spot price immediately, as positions are settled off-exchange or hedged elsewhere. While bullish on longer-term adoption, these ETF inflows aren’t currently strong enough to offset near-term selling.

Trump Tariff Ruling, Fed Policy, and Q3 Seasonality: Macro Is a Wildcard

The Court of International Trade's ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs gave bulls a brief reprieve, but the Federal Circuit allowed their temporary continuation while the case is appealed. Combined with anticipation around the June 18 FOMC meeting, Bitcoin investors remain on edge. The Fed’s stance will significantly influence BTC’s path — any dovish hint could spark renewed risk-on appetite.

Historically, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with an average gain of just 6.03% since 2013. However, analysts believe 2025 could break this pattern, given regulatory progress and ETF tailwinds. Still, the market is watching for confirmation — not assuming seasonality will reverse.

Quantum Risk Emerges: BlackRock Warns BTC May Be Vulnerable

A Google research paper dramatically reduced the number of qubits needed to break cryptographic protocols, prompting BlackRock to amend its ETF filings, warning that quantum computing could render Bitcoin’s cryptography obsolete.

Investor Chamath Palihapitiya noted that “the only safe trade may be hard assets and, dare I say, gold” if quantum threats become real. While still years away, this risk is now on institutional radars and could weigh on sentiment over the long term.

BTC Technical Setup: Momentum Slipping Below $106,000 with Eyes on $100K

Bitcoin closed below its critical $106,400 support level, exposing it to downside risk toward $100,000, its current Max Pain price and psychological floor. RSI near 54 continues to descend, while MACD’s red bars grow, supporting a bearish short-term case.

If BTC reclaims $111,000, it may ignite a rally toward $120,000, but current signals suggest that price action is tilting toward consolidation or a sharper correction first.

Crypto Peer Signals: Ethereum and XRP Reinforce Bearish Short-Term Outlook

Ethereum (ETH-USD) was rejected at $2,724, now down to around $2,600. If it falls below its 200-day EMA at $2,455, next stop is $2,277. RSI at 64 was just turned away from overbought levels, with MACD confirming bearish momentum.

XRP (XRP-USD) has dropped to $2.21, under its 50-day EMA of $2.29. RSI at 41 and MACD crossover further support a bearish continuation, possibly retesting $1.96 support.

Elon, Trump, and Bitcoin's Wildcard Narrative Power

Whispers around Elon Musk’s crypto plans and Donald Trump’s renewed embrace of Bitcoin are fueling speculation, but not traction. While these stories generate buzz, the market is demanding liquidity, not rhetoric. BTC has risen over 50% YoY, but gains are now consolidating around real policy, ETF flows, and rates — not tweets.

Final Verdict: Bullish Longer-Term, Bearish Short-Term — Prepare for Turbulence

Bitcoin is currently in a short-term correction, facing pressure from a record options expiry, critical technical resistance, and macro crosswinds. That said, institutional support via ETFs, regulatory clarity, and longer-term adoption trends remain positive.

Verdict: Hold if in, Buy under $100K, Sell if fails to hold $100K this week.

Upside potential toward $120,000, downside risk to $95,000 if selling continues. This is a battlefield of momentum, and the next 72 hours will be decisive.

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