Bitcoin ETF Boom Fuels Rally Above $97,000

Bitcoin’s ETF Revolution Ignites Institutional Floodgates

Since spot BTC-USD ETFs launched a year ago, total assets under management (AUM) have rocketed to $111.99 billion as of May 1. Thirteen consecutive days of net positive inflows added roughly 127,000 BTC—about $12.3 billion—driven by BlackRock’s IBIT (which hauled in 2,841 BTC, or $270 million, in a single session) and Fidelity’s FBTC (1,462 BTC, $138 million). The usual “slow start” for new ETF launches was upended, with year-one Bitcoin ETF inflows already dwarfing gold’s SPDR GLD debut, which managed only $12 billion. Today, ten U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold 1,153,451 BTC (≈ $109.6 billion), cementing a relentless adoption wave among institutions.

Dragosch’s $1 Million by 2029: Matching Gold’s $21.7 Trillion

Bitwise European research head André Dragosch forecasts BTC-USD at $1 million by 2029—equating Bitcoin’s market cap to gold’s current $21.7 trillion. His base-case this cycle pegs Bitcoin at $200,000, assuming continued “off-tape” purchases by sovereign entities. Should U.S. authorities deploy “budget-neutral” strategies—funded via tariff revenue or reallocated gold certificates—Dragosch’s target climbs to $500,000 before decade’s end. His thesis rests on prolonged ETF inflows extending the four-year halving cycle, wirehouse distribution unlocking capital from over $10 trillion at firms like Merrill Lynch, and potential government reserve mandates fueling a self-reinforcing demand loop.

Weekly ETF Flow Surge: $1.13 Billion in Four Days

Data from Sosovalue reveals U.S. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $422.45 million on May 1, bringing the four-day total to $1.13 billion and pushing the week’s haul near $1.2 billion. Though shy of last week’s record $3.06 billion, this marks the second-highest seven-day inflow since November 2024.
Inflows by fund:
• BlackRock IBIT: +2,841 BTC (≈$270 M)
• Grayscale GBTC: +1,600 BTC (≈$152 M)
• Bitwise BITB: +1,100 BTC (≈$105 M)
• Valkyrie BTF: +870 BTC (≈$83 M)
• ARK 21Shares ARKB: –1,200 BTC (–$115 M)
With 1,153,451 BTC under management and average daily trading volumes of $3.5 billion, Bitcoin ETFs now dwarf gold ETF flows and underscore Bitcoin’s ascent as a mainstream institutional asset.

Dominance Surge: Bitcoin Claims 64.9% of Crypto Market

As ETF allocations grow, BTC-USD dominance has climbed to 64.89%—its highest since January 2021. Major altcoins like ETH-USD, SOL, and XRP remain 43–61% below their cycle highs, highlighting Bitcoin’s resilience amid tariff-induced volatility. While the S&P 500 is down 6% YTD, Bitcoin trades just 10.9% below its $108,786 peak. Key on-chain metrics reinforce the narrative: active addresses up 15% since ETF debut, daily transactions at 1.2 million, all-time high hash rate near 540 EH/s, and CME futures funding rates at a 0.02% daily premium—reflecting bullish institution-grade demand.

Whale Activity & Insider Movements

On-chain analysts report three whales accumulated 5,362 BTC (~$517 million) in 24 hours via Aave loans and Binance withdrawals—moves that often presage fresh inflows or hedged derivative positions. Meanwhile, Coinbase insiders disclosed they sold only 5% of exercised options in April, signaling confidence that ETF-driven liquidity will sustain or elevate price levels.

Technical Landscape: Charting the Path Above $100,000

On May 1, BTC-USD reclaimed $97,000, eyeing the critical $100,000 milestone. Daily candles trade above the 50-day EMA at $94,200, approaching the 100-day EMA at $102,500. The RSI sits at 62—below overbought territory—while the MACD histogram remains positive.
Key levels:
• Support: $95,000 (50 DMA, low-volume node)
• Resistance: $100,000 (psychological, CME gap fill)
• Stretch target: $108,786 (all-time high)

Analyst Verdict: Embrace the Momentum

Record ETF inflows, sovereign interest, and robust on-chain fundamentals underpin a bullish bias. Even under Dragosch’s base-case of $200,000, BTC-USD offers +106% upside; the $500,000 scenario delivers +415% gains. While macro headwinds (tariffs, rising rates) pose risks, the structural adoption narrative endures. Buy dips toward $95,000 with a stop-loss at $90,000; scale out near $120,000. Institutional lock-up and ETF scarcity create an asymmetric return profile unmatched by traditional assets.

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