Bitcoin Price Climbs to $109K: Is a New BTC-USD All-Time High Just Days Away?

Bitcoin price steadies near all-time high amid trade optimism

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded around $109,000 on Tuesday, slightly off Monday’s high of $110,530 but still just 1.56% below its all-time peak of $111,965. The crypto market remains laser-focused on US-China trade talks in London, which have helped fuel broader risk-on sentiment. With BTC already up 4.3% on Monday, the market is now consolidating gains while awaiting key inflation data from the US.

Whale opens massive leveraged long on BTC

Market momentum was punctuated by a bold $54.5 million leveraged long position on Bitcoin executed via Hyperliquid. The newly created wallet "0x1f25" funded with $10 million USDC, opened a 511.5 BTC position at an entry price of $106,538, using 20x leverage. With liquidation set at $88,141, the whale is already sitting on an $11,000 paper profit. Traders speculate this could be high-profile investor James Wynn, who suffered $99.3 million in liquidations in late May but has resumed aggressive bets.

ETF inflows revive institutional appetite

Institutional demand is ramping back up. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a $386.27 million net inflow on Monday, according to SoSoValue data, breaking a two-day streak of outflows. Total ETF assets now exceed $122 billion after $2.8 billion of inflows in May. This suggests deep-pocketed investors continue to buy BTC dips, supporting price strength.

Correlation with equities and macro headwinds

BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 remains elevated at 82%, meaning broader equity trends and US macro data remain crucial drivers. JPMorgan and Citigroup recently raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500, citing easing US-China trade tensions and better economic data. Bitcoin mirrored this rally, adding over $190 billion in market value alongside equities.

However, Bitcoin futures premiums remain muted. Since June 6, 2-month futures annualized premium has hovered near 5%, a baseline level indicating neutral sentiment. Though BTC is near its record high, futures traders remain cautious due to macro uncertainties.

Realized cap hits record as whales accumulate

On-chain data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin’s realized capitalization hit a new high of $936.60 billion. This suggests older BTC coins are moving at current high prices, signaling strong holder conviction. In parallel, the Coinbase Premium Index has climbed, reflecting aggressive US-based institutional buying. BTC’s MVRV ratio of 2.34 indicates it is far from overvalued — historical tops occur above 3.7.

Technical setup points to new breakout potential

BTC’s price action is forming an ascending channel. The daily BTC/USD chart shows price finding strong support above the 50-day EMA ($101,977). Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 signals bullish momentum. If RSI holds above 50, BTC could break above $112,072 in coming sessions. MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, another potential buy signal.

Support is now at $106,406; failure there could trigger a retest of $102,000 or the psychological $100,000 mark. Still, current technicals favor further upside.

Institutional and corporate BTC demand strengthens

Beyond ETFs, corporate appetite is growing. KULR Technology announced a $300 million capital raise to expand its Bitcoin treasury. This follows major BTC purchases by firms like Strategy. Meanwhile, US investors added $110 million worth of BTC last week alone, per CryptoQuant data.

James Toledano of Unity Wallet highlighted that BTC’s resilience post $100,000 retest is driven by sustained institutional inflows and easing US regulatory fears. He notes that rate cut expectations for July could further boost BTC, though resistance looms at $112K-$125K.

Impact of US-China trade talks on BTC trajectory

BTC’s latest push above $108,000 was sparked by optimism around US-China trade negotiations. The US may ease tech export restrictions in exchange for better access to China’s rare earths. News of progress has buoyed both equities and crypto.

Yet Tuesday’s session saw Chinese equities slide, reflecting jitters over potential setbacks in the talks. If an agreement materializes, BTC could surge alongside global risk assets. Conversely, stalled negotiations may cap near-term upside.

Market positioning remains constructive

BTC’s long-to-short margin ratio at OKX sits at 4x, within healthy levels. Historically, extreme bullishness pushes this ratio above 20x; sub-5x ratios suggest a balanced market with room for more upside. Short liquidations remain a key driver — over $205 million of liquidations occurred during Monday’s rally, forcing shorts to cover.

Near-term outlook: Eyes on inflation and Fed policy

Looking ahead, Wednesday’s US CPI report looms large. Softer inflation could revive Fed rate cut expectations, boosting BTC. Current CME Fedwatch data shows a 99.9% probability of no rate change this month, but a 14.9% chance of a cut in July. If dovish signals emerge, BTC could rally toward $120,000.

Still, recession fears and high correlation to equities may limit gains in the short term. BTC must decisively break the $112K-$125K resistance zone to unlock the next leg higher.

Final thoughts

Bitcoin remains structurally bullish. Institutional inflows are firm, whales are accumulating, and technicals point to a potential breakout. Yet macro headwinds and equity correlations temper near-term euphoria. As long as $106,406 support holds, the path of least resistance is upward, with $120K in sight if favorable catalysts align.

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