Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Tests $107K as ETF Flows, Options Expiry, and Inflation Clash Shape Next Move
Volatility Surges Ahead of $40B Options Expiry While BTC-USD Fights for Control at $107K
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is currently trapped in a tactical battle near $107,000, with price action tightening between $105,000 and $108,000 heading into the final days of June. This narrow consolidation masks a storm beneath the surface: $40 billion in BTC options are set to expire, with a max pain point around $102,000. That dynamic is acting as a gravitational pull, limiting upside momentum and increasing the risk of a temporary flush to reduce open interest.
At press time, BTC trades at $107,391, up 0.3% over the last 24 hours, with altcoins like XRP, ADA, and SOL showing mild sympathy gains of 1%–4%. Despite these moves, the market remains fragile, underpinned by weakening onchain activity and a looming weekend setup often associated with low liquidity swings.
Institutional Flows Hold the Line: $4B in ETF Inflows Signal Confidence Despite Choppy Tape
One of the few bullish constants this week has been institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have added over $4 billion in net flows over the last 12 sessions. That capital injection helped absorb sharp derivatives-driven selloffs, where $28.6 million in longs and $25.2 million in shorts were liquidated in under 24 hours, according to Glassnode.
BTC-denominated open interest collapsed ~7%, falling from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC, suggesting a leverage reset phase underway. This reset, while painful in the short term, builds structural support if spot buyers remain active.
ETF juggernauts like BlackRock’s IBIT, now controlling $75 billion in Bitcoin holdings (3% of circulating supply), have become a critical ballast. If retail pulls back, institutional flows may keep price buoyant — but the risk is concentration: BlackRock’s stake alone means that any shift in ETF liquidity trends could disproportionately impact Bitcoin's broader ecosystem.
Technical Setup Caught in Crossfire: $108K Resistance and $104K Fair Value Gap Define Range
Technically, BTC remains locked inside a descending channel, with resistance capped near $108,000–$110,500, and structural support concentrated between $103,400–$104,600, coinciding with a daily fair value gap and the 200-day EMA. This confluence has turned that zone into the market’s battlefield — bulls seek a bounce here; bears see it as the gateway to deeper retracement.
Short-term price action is still digesting a failed sweep of liquidity near $109,000, followed by a fade back to the current $107K band. If price closes a daily candle above $108K, momentum could carry it toward the next cluster near $112,000. Failing that, a dip below $104K could accelerate liquidation toward $98,500, where past liquidity lures remain untested.
Analyst Rekt Capital has flagged $108,000 as the final key resistance on the weekly timeframe. A successful weekly close above that threshold could open the door to new all-time highs, while a rejection implies a longer consolidation stretch.
Onchain Trends Show Apathy: Weak User Activity, Slowing Volume, and Fading Profitability
Despite strong price levels, onchain participation is weakening. Glassnode data shows a 36% decline in transfer volume earlier this quarter, and only a $7.7 billion increase in spot activity for Q2 — a muted response compared to January’s ETF launch surge.
Profitability metrics are also fading, suggesting more coins are trading near cost basis or in slight loss. Coupled with low wallet activity, this hints at a cooling phase, where short-term traders are exiting and long-term holders are not yet reengaging.
That said, long-term holders remain structurally bullish, accumulating nearly 800,000 BTC per month. This accumulation run is the most aggressive since the 2020 cycle, and acts as a supply sink, tightening availability even in the absence of new demand.
Macro Risks Return: Sticky Core PCE Data Signals No Fed Rate Cut Relief Ahead
The macro backdrop has turned less supportive. The Fed’s Core PCE inflation data rose to 2.7%, up from 2.6%, marking the first increase since February 2025. Headline PCE came in at 2.3%. While these numbers were close to expectations, the uptick in Core PCE reduces the likelihood of a summer rate cut, keeping real yields high and placing continued pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin, often described as a macro hedge, has historically reacted negatively to tighter financial conditions. With inflation proving sticky and no Fed pivot imminent, risk appetite is throttled, unless price can decouple through a high-conviction breakout.
Analysts like Scott Melker argue Bitcoin’s resilience during macro volatility reflects strong institutional demand, while others caution that the next leg up needs more than ETF inflows—it needs an actual breakout.
Analyst Targets Diverge: $110.5K Seen as Breakout Trigger, $98.5K as Ultimate Support Catch
The trading community remains split. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe points to $110,500 as the critical resistance to breach. If that level breaks, he sees upside targets toward $112,000 and potentially $165,000, depending on ETF strength and market breadth.
Downside zones remain equally mapped. Support is anticipated at:
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$105,500–$104,000: Local demand zones
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$98,500–$100,000: Historical high-conviction reversal area
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$102,000 max pain: Options expiry magnet that could suppress price short-term
Analyst AlphaBTC cautions that Bitcoin still lacks momentum to flip the $108K–$110K resistance zone into support. Without that level turning decisively, any upside risk remains capped by selling pressure and volatility traps.
Meanwhile, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich warns that the $108,000 level continues to trigger selling, with large players using that line to offload into liquidity. That matches the current chart behavior: every move into that zone is met with absorption.
