Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Rebounds Above $91,000 as Fed Easing Bets Ignite Crypto Rally

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Rebounds Above $91,000 as Fed Shift Sparks Renewed Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed sharply to $91,396, regaining strength after last week’s fall to $80,600, its weakest level since April. The rebound came as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, now pricing an 85% probability compared to 44% a week earlier. The shift in sentiment coincided with speculation that President Donald Trump may appoint a more dovish Fed chair before Christmas, a move expected to accelerate liquidity expansion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that five candidates are under review, fueling expectations for a policy pivot that could sustain Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Liquidity Cycle and Macro Catalysts Driving Bitcoin Recovery

The liquidity environment has turned decisively more supportive. According to ARK Invest, total U.S. liquidity dropped to $5.56 trillion during the 43-day government shutdown but has since rebounded as the Treasury released $70 billion into markets. Another $300 billion is expected to return in the coming weeks, while the Treasury’s cash balance remains elevated at $892 billion, far above the normalized $600 billion range. This backdrop strengthens Bitcoin’s risk-on appeal. Cathie Wood reiterated her bullish conviction, maintaining a $1.5 million bull case and a $650,000 base case for 2030, noting that “liquidity pressure will reverse soon.” Her remarks align with the recent improvement in investor sentiment and renewed institutional participation.

Technical Overview and Market Structure

Bitcoin is consolidating within a tight range between $90,658 and $91,926, just beneath the key $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone defined by overlapping Fibonacci levels and previous April–May support. Momentum remains constructive but cautious. The Relative Strength Index hovers near neutral, indicating that buyers have regained moderate control. The short-term trend is supported by the 10-day EMA at $90,023 and the 10-day SMA at $88,493, though longer-term moving averages up to the 200-day EMA at $109,985 still sit overhead, confirming that the broader macro structure remains bearish. The formation of a recent death cross underscores that recovery may require sustained volume above $92,000 before Bitcoin can re-establish long-term bullish dominance.

Institutional Flows and ETF Activity

Institutional positioning is beginning to stabilize. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered $129 million in inflows over the last two sessions, but overall November flows remain negative at –$3.5 billion, marking the second-worst month since inception. Analysts at QCP Capital note that ETF-related selling pressure near $95,000 may keep the market trapped in a sideways channel, while firms such as K33 Research describe current levels around $90,000 as “long-term accumulation territory.” The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) advanced nearly 3% to $51.03, mirroring the rebound in spot prices.

Analyst Divergence and Forecast Revisions

The latest market debate centers around diverging institutional forecasts. Tom Lee, the chair of Fundstrat, lowered his year-end Bitcoin target from $250,000 to “above $100,000,” while maintaining confidence that BTC will surpass six figures before year-end. He acknowledged that reaching the $126,296 all-time high set in October is unlikely in the near term but insisted that “Bitcoin’s best days may still occur before the end of 2025.” In contrast, Cathie Wood remains firm on her $1.5 million 2030 bull scenario, emphasizing expanding liquidity and the resilience of long-term holders as reasons to stay constructive despite the November correction.

Market Psychology and On-Chain Dynamics

The recovery from $80,600 to $91,500 reflects a transition from capitulation to cautious optimism. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which hit its lowest reading of the year last week, has begun to normalize. On-chain data reveals heavy liquidation clusters around $100,000, suggesting potential for short squeezes if resistance breaks. Below current price, a liquidity vacuum between $80,000 and $85,000 persists—an area that could serve as the next accumulation base should short-term sentiment weaken. Historically, similar liquidity pockets have preceded sustained upside reversals once sellers are exhausted.

Inter-Market Correlations and Equity Influence

The correlation between Bitcoin and major U.S. indices remains strong. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.82% to 23,214, the S&P 500 gained 0.69% to 6,812, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.67% to 47,427. Risk appetite in equities, particularly within AI-related stocks such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), supported crypto sentiment. Nvidia climbed 1.37%, while AMD rose 3.93%, underscoring renewed optimism in high-beta sectors. The Dollar Index weakened slightly to 99.48, offering additional support to Bitcoin’s price structure as global investors rotated toward higher-yielding digital assets.

Altcoin Response and Broader Market Context

Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s lead. Ethereum (ETH-USD) traded at $3,021, up 2.3%, while Solana (SOL-USD) advanced 3.1% to $142. XRP (XRP-USD) climbed 0.9% to $2.21, and Cardano (ADA-USD) gained 3.4%, highlighting synchronized sector recovery. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) inched higher at $0.15, while smaller-cap tokens like Toncoin (TON-USD) and Render (RENDER-USD) advanced more than 4%. The market’s total capitalization recovered to $3.2 trillion, reflecting broad-based appetite for digital assets after weeks of deleveraging.

Outlook and Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin’s short-term momentum hinges on reclaiming the $92,000–$94,000 zone, a move that would open the path toward $96,000–$100,000 and challenge the upper range of the year’s trading corridor. Failure to sustain above $89,000 could trigger renewed selling toward $86,000–$87,500, where structural liquidity remains dense. The balance of forces shows that bulls are regaining control of the short-term narrative, but the broader trend remains fragile under macro headwinds.

Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – Hold with Bullish Bias

Based on the convergence of improving liquidity conditions, strong institutional re-entry, and technical resilience above $90,000, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) warrants a Hold rating with a near-term bullish bias. While resistance near $92,000 may trigger short-term volatility, continued Fed easing expectations and liquidity restoration across U.S. markets position Bitcoin to test $94,000–$100,000 in the weeks ahead. The long-term trajectory remains upward, contingent on macro liquidity expansion and sustained accumulation above the $89,000 floor.

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