Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Steadies Around $87K While BTC-USD Builds a Path Toward $97K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds the $87K Line While the Market Quietly Repositions for 2026

Price Damage Since the $125,000 Peak: How Deep Is the Drawdown?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading in the high-$80,000s after a sharp reset from the October peak around $125,000. The drop to roughly $110,000 in early November erased about 16.23% in a single move, and Q4 as a whole now shows a drawdown of roughly 23% from the quarter’s opening level, making it the weakest quarter since the 2022 Terra/FTX period. Over the last 24 hours BTC has slipped about 2%, sitting roughly 3% below yesterday’s intraday high, with price action compressing just under a well-defined resistance zone. Short term the chart looks dull; structurally, the market is resetting positioning after an overheated run.

ETF Flows: Structural Tailwind Turned Short-Term Headwind

Spot Bitcoin ETFs transformed BTC into a mainstream macro instrument, but 2025 proved that institutional flows can easily flip from engine to drag. ETF assets under management peaked near $163 billion in October and have since fallen to roughly $116 billion, a reduction of almost $47 billion in institutional exposure. December flow data shows mostly red: only seven positive flow days and continuous outflows since December 18, which explains why BTC repeatedly fails to sustain levels above $90,000–$91,000. The same risk frameworks used for the S&P 500 are now applied to BTC-USD, keeping it highly correlated to equities and turning it into a liquid risk toggle rather than a pure independent hedge.

On-Chain Momentum: OBV Breakout Versus the $90,840 Ceiling

Underneath the flat tape, on-chain momentum has started to turn. Between December 21 and December 26 price drifted higher while On-Balance Volume (OBV) printed lower highs, a clear bearish divergence that justified the failed breakout and long upper wick on December 26. This week OBV finally broke above the downtrend line connecting those lower highs, signaling that buying pressure is rebuilding. The signal is not fully confirmed until OBV pushes above roughly 1.58 million; until that happens, the improvement remains provisional, not a green light. The price map is very clear: $90,840 is the first real wall, having rejected BTC on December 12 and in every attempt since. Above that zone the next upside checkpoints sit near $97,190, then $101,710, and finally $107,470. On the downside, support around $86,915 has held since December 19, and a failure there would open air down toward $80,560, where a deeper washout is possible in thin year-end liquidity. For now BTC is boxed between $86,915 and $90,840, with OBV arguing for a test of the upper boundary first, but no guarantee.

Long-Term Holders Add 3,783.8 BTC: Slow Money Steps Back In

While ETF investors have been net sellers into Q4 weakness, long-term holders have quietly resumed accumulation. The Hodler net position change metric, which tracks wallets holding coins for over 155 days, turned positive on December 26 for the first time since late September. In that reading, long-term holders added 3,783.8 BTC. This cohort does not buy for a two-week move; they buy when multi-year risk/reward improves. It is the first tangible sign of renewed conviction after almost three months of net trimming. For a durable trend higher in BTC-USD, this metric needs to stay positive into early 2026, not just flash one strong print, but the direction has turned in favor of accumulation.

Japan’s Corporate Treasuries: ANAP and Metaplanet Lock In Supply

Japan is becoming a live demonstration of how corporate treasuries can reshape Bitcoin’s float. Listed trading house ANAP Holdings bought 109.3551 BTC across December 24–25, a purchase worth about 1.5 billion JPY (roughly $10 million), bringing its total holdings to 1,346.5856 BTC, approximately $85 million at current prices. CEO Rintao Kawai has been explicit that he expects many companies to realize the benefits of holding Bitcoin in three to five years, warning that waiting until then may be “too late,” and urging firms to prepare now. Meanwhile Metaplanet has effectively repurposed itself into a Bitcoin holding vehicle, scaling back real estate and retail activities and building a balance sheet of roughly 30,823 BTC. These positions remove a meaningful amount of BTC from tradable supply and form a structural bid, although they can also become a concentrated source of selling if macro or governance pressure forces balance-sheet cuts.

AI and On-Chain Forensics: Japan’s Early-Warning System for BTC Shocks

Japanese researchers are now using AI to interrogate Bitcoin’s transaction graph itself instead of relying solely on price and volume. A government-backed think tank has shown that large price dislocations are preceded by changes in the network of addresses, with certain “influential nodes”—high-impact wallets—dominating conditions leading up to sharp moves. By isolating these nodes and tracking their behavior, the model identifies precursors to volatility that standard market data misses. This work directly challenges the idea that halving cycles alone drive BTC and argues that demand, liquidity, and network structure now matter more than the embedded supply schedule. For serious risk management around BTC-USD, that means continuous monitoring of the chain, not just charts and funding rates.

Bitcoin as a Global Stress Barometer: From $125,000 to $110,000

The move from the $125,000 high in October to $110,000 in early November—roughly a 16.23% cut—is a clean example of Bitcoin’s role as a global stress gauge. Analysts in Japan frame BTC-USD as reacting less to its own “fundamentals” and more as a mirror of global anxiety. When conditions turn defensive, Bitcoin is often the first asset to be liquidated because of its high volatility and deep liquidity, ahead of equities and even some credit. That framing matches Q4 behavior, where macro uncertainty, tariff noise, and policy risk, combined with ETF outflows and derivatives liquidations, triggered a rapid repricing while long-term structural narratives remained intact.

Gold and Silver Dominate 2025: A 70% vs 150% Challenge for BTC

By year-end, the performance scoreboard is owned by precious metals, not crypto. Gold futures have repeatedly printed new highs, with prices around $4,552–$4,585 per ounce and intraday spikes near $4,568–$4,579, delivering roughly 70–74% gains in 2025 and marking the strongest year since 1979. Silver futures have surged through levels like $75.84, $76.49, $77.196, and close to $79 per ounce, achieving approximately 150–162% year-to-date appreciation and a quarterly jump near 70%. High-profile early Bitcoin advocates now argue that silver could overshoot $100, after years of alleged suppression. For BTC-USD, this powerful metals trade means a substantial slice of global liquidity is parked in traditional safe havens. The flip side is that when this trade exhausts, a portion of that capital can rotate back into higher-beta assets such as Bitcoin, creating fuel for the next crypto leg.

ETF Outflows, Q4 Pain, and What the Bearish Quarter Really Signals

The combination of ETF assets dropping from $163 billion to $116 billion, Q4 price sliding roughly 23% from the Q3 open, and persistent net outflows since December 18 has turned this quarter into the harshest since 2022 for late Bitcoin bulls and leveraged players. This also explains why BTC could lag gold and silver while its structural story remains intact. ETF redemptions and whale selling have dominated slow but steady hodler accumulation, and risk models have kept BTC tied to S&P 500 behavior rather than allowing a full safe-haven decoupling. The regime shift investors need to see is straightforward: a sustained turn from negative to positive ETF flows, combined with ongoing long-term holder accumulation and some easing in macro volatility.

Derivatives Volume: $86 Trillion of Leverage Behind BTC-USD

The 2025 derivatives data underlines how much leverage now sits behind every Bitcoin move. Crypto derivatives volume around $86 trillion for the year shows that futures and options dominate short-term price discovery. This leverage amplifies ETF-driven selling, on-chain repositioning, and macro shocks. When ETF holders de-risk aggressively, forced liquidations cascade across perpetuals and dated futures, turning normal corrections into sharp air-pockets. For BTC-USD to mount a cleaner advance in 2026, the market will need healthier positioning, with less crowded leverage on both the long and short sides.

Bitcoin, Payroll, and Stablecoins: Real Economy Use Versus Market Volatility

Away from trading desks, the role of Bitcoin in payments and payroll continues to grow. Since 2023, major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have offered spot BTC products, allowing corporates and high-net-worth clients to access BTC-USD through regulated channels. Fintech and Web3 firms are building crypto payroll rails, timing conversions into BTC or pairing salaries with stablecoins to manage volatility. On the protocol side, upgrades like Taproot have enhanced privacy and smart-contract capabilities, enabling more advanced settlement structures. At the same time, stablecoins are becoming the preferred vehicle for freelancers and contractors who want crypto rails without Bitcoin’s price swings. The net effect is clear: the use-case and infrastructure for BTC are improving, even as the short-term price remains hostage to macro factors, ETF behavior, and speculative leverage.

From Metals to Crypto: The 2026 Liquidity Rotation Scenario

The violent rallies in gold and silver—gold up roughly 70%, silver near 150%+—fit the classic pattern of a panic bid into hard assets first, then a later rotation into higher-beta risk once anxiety peaks. A plausible 2026 roadmap is that capital currently parked in metals starts to rotate as macro fear stabilizes and central bank policy becomes more predictable. Additional Fed rate cuts on top of the three delivered in 2025, reduced tariff uncertainty, and a clear improvement in growth expectations would all support that shift. In that scenario, Bitcoin ETFs are positioned to become the primary conduit for this returning risk appetite, with flows flipping back to sustained net buying and BTC-USD reclaiming leadership from metals and some equities.

BTC-USD Verdict: Accumulate on Weakness, Not a Chase Above $97,000

The data picture is clear. Price is roughly 30%+ below the $125,000 high and about 23% lower this quarter versus Q3’s open. ETF assets have dropped from $163 billion to $116 billion, while long-term holders have resumed accumulation with a 3,783.8 BTC net add and Japanese corporates such as ANAP and Metaplanet locking away 1,346.5856 BTC and 30,823 BTC respectively. OBV has broken its downtrend but still needs a push above 1.58 million to fully validate a momentum turn. Key supports sit at $86,915 and $80,560, with resistance stacked at $90,840, $97,190, $101,710, and $107,470. Gold around $4,552–$4,585 and silver near $76–$79 are absorbing the safe-haven bid for now. On that basis BTC-USD is a Buy with an accumulation bias, not a momentum chase, especially in the $80,560–$86,915 zone. The structural case remains bullish; the market is simply clearing excess leverage and digesting ETF outflows before it is ready to sustain a move back through the $97,000–$107,000 resistance band.

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