Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Tests $68K While $63,300 Support Battles $73K Ceiling

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Price Forecast 2026: Boxed Between $63,300 Support And $73,000 Ceiling

BTC-USD From $126,000 Peak To $60,000 Flush: Where Price Sits Now

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has already completed a full boom-and-bleed cycle on the latest leg. From the all-time high above roughly $126,000, price dropped by just over 50% to a multi-year low near $60,000 on February 6. The rebound from that low has been partial, not a full recovery. Spot now trades around the $67,000–$68,000 band, with weekend prints pinned near $67,820 as price shadows the CME futures close and waits for fresh flow when derivatives markets fully reopen. Day-to-day action is flat, but the broader trend over the last seven days is still a mild bleed, not a clean turn. The structure is classic post-spike digestion: big top, deep retrace, then a wide consolidation range that is still unresolved.

Monthly And Weekly Structure: $73,000 Range Low Versus $50,000 Demand Zone

On higher timeframes, the key levels are explicit. The prior leg up stalled into a broad resistance band, and the subsequent pullback has settled into a blue demand zone just above $73,000 on the weekly chart. Candles around that zone show limited downside follow-through. Selling pressure has not punched price decisively below the range low. A monthly close near $73,000 would argue that demand is absorbing supply exactly where it needs to, and that the current move is a controlled retracement within a larger bullish cycle. A monthly close clearly under that range low changes the picture. If BTC-USD finishes the month with a body pushed below $73,000 and weekly support fails, the path toward the next structural demand area around $50,000 opens up. That lower band has been highlighted as the zone where buying interest stepped in during previous downswings and where analysts expect buyers to defend again. That $50,000 level is not the base case, but it is a realistic tail-risk within the current macro and crypto setup.

Cost-Basis Walls: $72,200–$73,200 Resistance And $63,300–$64,300 Support

On-chain cost-basis data explains why Bitcoin keeps stalling under the mid-$70,000s. Roughly 149,000 BTC were accumulated between about $72,600 and $73,200. That cluster is a heavy overhead wall where a large number of holders are sitting close to breakeven. Every approach into that zone triggers supply from addresses that rode the last move down and want out at cost. Technical resistance aligns with that. Around $72,200 sits a key line that many desks treat as the first serious resistance. To satisfy the Polymarket crowd aiming at $75,000, BTC-USD must break above $72,200, chew through that 149,000-coin supply band between $72,600 and $73,200 and then sustain trade above it. From current levels, that requires a move of more than 6% with real volume. On the downside, there is a mirrored demand block. Approximately 150,000 BTC cluster between about $64,300 and $63,800, with a critical technical level around $63,300. That stack defines the current floor. Above $64,300–$63,800, the range remains intact. A decisive break under $63,300 means that entire support cohort is under water and unlocks a path toward the psychological $60,000 region that Polymarket has priced as a secondary scenario. Right now, BTC-USD is boxed between these cost-basis walls: heavy supply overhead between $72,200 and $73,200 and concentrated demand between $64,300 and $63,300.

Momentum And Hidden Bearish Divergence: Why $75,000 Is Not A Free Ride

The daily chart justifies caution even while the longer-term cycle remains intact. Between mid-November and mid-February, Bitcoin printed a lower high in price, but the Relative Strength Index carved a higher high. That mix – falling price peak with rising RSI – is a hidden bearish divergence inside an existing downtrend. It signals that, despite a temporary improvement in momentum, the larger selling bias is not resolved. Since that divergence flashed, BTC-USD has already dropped about 6%, confirming the pattern’s warning. Price is now stuck in a range, but the burden of proof sits with the bulls. As long as the divergence is not invalidated by a clean higher high above the last peak, the probability that BTC grinds sideways or lower is higher than the probability of a smooth melt-up through $72,000 and on to $75,000.

Prediction Markets And Probabilities: 17% For $75,000, 12% For Sub-$60,000

Prediction markets give a clean snapshot of how aggressively the crowd is positioned. On Polymarket, the single most popular February outcome for Bitcoin is “above $75,000”, priced at around 17% probability with more than $88 million traded and millions of dollars of active liquidity in that bracket. That outcome has already seen its odds cut by more than half, showing that confidence in a quick break to new highs has faded as the correction dragged on. The next most popular bin is the opposite extreme: “under $60,000” at roughly 12% probability. The curve is split: one camp still pays for upside optionality to $75,000 and beyond, another is quietly positioning for a deeper flush back into the low-$60,000s or below. With BTC-USD stuck in the high-$60,000s, the market is effectively saying the range has not broken and that both extremes are plausible within a relatively short window.

Long-Term Statistical Metric: 88% Odds Of Being Higher And A $122,000 “Average Return” Path

Despite the local bearish divergence and the range trap, long-horizon statistics lean clearly positive. An informal monthly-frequency metric built on data back to 2011 shows that 50% of the last 24 months printed positive returns. Under that frequency profile, the probability of Bitcoin trading higher ten months from now comes out near 88%. The same model implies an average percentage gain of about 82% over that ten-month horizon. Applied to current levels, that points to a notional target around $122,000. The designer of the metric stresses that it measures frequency, not magnitude: it is better at flagging inflection points than at delivering precise targets. The conclusion is straightforward. Over the next few months, Bitcoin can easily move sideways or even lower while that metric still heads down. Over a ten-month horizon, historical behaviour makes it more likely than not that BTC-USD stands higher than today, with an “average” finish near the low-six-figure zone.

Institutional Targets: Bernstein And Wells Fargo Point Toward $150,000 With Heavy Inflows

Institutional research adds a more aggressive upside scenario. A recent note from Bernstein put out a $150,000 objective for Bitcoin in this cycle, characterizing the current downturn as the weakest bear phase in the coin’s history. At the same time, a Wells Fargo analysis sees around $150 billion of capital inflows into Bitcoin and equities by the end of March, tied to higher savings and renewed speculative appetite. That bank explicitly expects “YOLO” style risk-taking to return as risk assets stabilize. If even a modest slice of that projected $150 billion flows into BTC and related products, the combination of structural ETF demand and renewed leverage could push BTC-USD deep into six-figure territory. These calls do not negate the risk toward $60,000 or even $50,000 on the downside, but they define the upper boundary of the 2026 range that serious macro desks are working with.

Long-Term Holders: Heavy Selling Has Eased, True Accumulation Has Not Started

The biggest structural bid in any Bitcoin cycle comes from long-term holders – coins that have been dormant for more than a year. Their behaviour around the recent top was textbook supply. On a 30-day rolling basis, they reduced their holdings by about 244,919 BTC around February 5, a massive wave of distribution into strength. By February 21, that net reduction had narrowed to around 81,019 BTC, a 67% drop in selling pressure. That improvement matters. It explains why BTC-USD has stabilized instead of nuking straight through $60,000. But net, they are still selling, not buying. The pause in distribution is not the same as an accumulation phase. Until this cohort shifts into net positive territory and begins adding tens of thousands of coins over a multi-week window, any rally into the $72,000–$75,000 region will face the risk of renewed long-term holder supply into strength.

Whale Positioning: Mega-Whales Add 13,460 BTC, Mid-Tier Whales Sell 10,000 BTC

Whale data paints a split picture rather than a unified front. Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have increased their balance from roughly 676,540 BTC to about 690,000 BTC, an accumulation of 13,460 BTC. That is cautious but meaningful buying from the largest buckets. At the same time, whales in the 10,000–100,000 BTC bracket have reduced their holdings from around 2.27 million BTC to 2.26 million BTC, selling roughly 10,000 BTC into the weakness. Net, the flow tilts slightly toward accumulation, but it is not a synchronized push. Some of the very largest entities are clearly willing to add in the high-$60,000s. A broad chunk of mid-tier whales remains defensive and uses liquidity spikes to offload risk. This fragmentation matches the price action: enough buying to keep the $63,000–$64,000 region intact so far, not enough conviction to punch straight through the supply wall near $72,000–$73,000.

Mid-Sized Versus Micro Holders: 0.8% Reduction Versus 2.5% Growth

Wallet cohorts also highlight who is fading the move and who is leaning into it. Addresses in the 10–10,000 BTC band – the classic mid-sized and small whale category – have cut their balances by around 0.8% since the October peak. Micro holders with 0.1 BTC or less have increased their holdings by roughly 2.5% over the same period. The result is familiar: smaller accounts “buy the dip” while more meaningful balance sheets quietly trim. This configuration does not normally mark a blow-off top, but it also does not scream bottom. The structural fuel for a sustainable, vertical breakout comes when larger cohorts start accumulating aggressively and micro wallets chase later. Right now, the pattern is still early-stage repositioning, not late-stage euphoria.

Spot ETF Flows: From +$6 Billion Surge To $3.8 Billion Outflows And A $54 Billion Net Base

ETF investors have followed a similar path of enthusiasm, then fatigue. In the two weeks leading into the $126,000 peak, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over $6 billion of net inflows. That wave of demand helped drive the final leg of the rally. After the top, flows flipped negative. Three consecutive weeks in early November saw more than $3.5 billion pulled out. That behaviour continued into the new year, and spot products are now sitting on a streak of five net-outflow weeks in a row, totalling about $3.8 billion withdrawn. Weekly outflows peaked at about $1.33 billion in the week ending January 23, followed by roughly $1.49 billion the next week. More recently, there is a tentative improvement. Weekly net outflows have slowed to under $360 million, and isolated sessions have seen around $88 million of net inflows. Cumulative net inflows into spot BTC ETFs have slipped from roughly $62.77 billion in early October to about $54 billion most recently – still a massive structural base. The conclusion is clear. ETF buyers are not aggressively adding at current levels, but they have not abandoned the asset. This is consolidation of positioning, not capitulation.

Sentiment And Narrative: $150,000 Hype Cools, “Bitcoin Is Dead” Spikes, Altseason Talk Returns

Sentiment analytics show a useful mix for medium-term upside: over-optimistic price calls are fading while doom narratives flare. Retail-style $150,000 slogans have cooled off sharply as price slid more than 50% from the top and stalled around $68,000. Social feeds have seen a surge in “Bitcoin is dead” chatter, a pattern that has often lined up with higher-probability entry zones historically than the “supercycle” language near the highs. At the same time, cycle talk is resurfacing around “Altseason 2026”, with historical altcoin runs of +2,500% being recycled across feeds. That rotation narrative usually appears when Bitcoin dominance stalls after a major leg higher. Combined, these signals point to a market that is no longer euphoric on BTC itself but is still hunting high-beta opportunities, while the broader public mood has turned skeptical again. That mix is usually constructive for Bitcoin over a 12- to 24-month window, even if it means more sideways chop in the short term.

Short- to Medium-Term BTC-USD View: Trade The $63,300–$73,000 Box, Respect $60,000 And $50,000 As Risk Levels

Putting the technicals, on-chain positioning, ETF flows and sentiment together, the current map is straightforward. Over the next few weeks, BTC-USD is likely to remain trapped between strong downside support around $63,300–$64,300 and heavy upside resistance between $72,200 and $73,200. A daily and weekly close above $72,200, followed by absorption of the 149,000-coin cost-basis wall up to $73,200, would be the first genuine signal that the path toward $75,000 and then the $86,000–$115,000 Elliott-wave target zone is reopening. A break below $63,300, especially if it carries through $60,000 quickly, raises the probability of a full retest of the broader $50,000 demand area flagged on the weekly chart. Over a ten-month horizon, the 88% historical odds of Bitcoin trading higher and the $122,000 “average return” estimate, coupled with institutional calls toward $150,000 and projected $150 billion inflows, argue that BTC-USD remains fundamentally biased to the upside. Over a one- to three-month horizon, the hidden bearish divergence, overhead cost-basis wall and ongoing ETF outflows justify a defensive, level-driven approach.

BTC-USD Verdict: Medium-Term Bullish, Short-Term Cautious Buy-On-Weakness Rather Than Aggressive Chase

Taking all of this into account – the 50% drawdown to $60,000, the current $67,000–$68,000 print, the $63,300–$64,300 support cluster, the $72,200–$73,200 resistance block, the 149,000 BTC overhead, the 150,000 BTC below, the 244,919 BTC long-term holder reduction easing to 81,019 BTC, the 13,460-BTC mega-whale accumulation, the 0.8% reduction in 10–10,000 BTC wallets, the 2.5% growth in sub-0.1 BTC addresses, the $6 billion ETF inflows into the peak followed by $3.8 billion of outflows, the $54 billion net ETF base, the 88% statistical probability of being higher in ten months with an average path toward $122,000, and the $150,000 institutional targets – the stance is direct. BTC-USD is a medium-term buy, with the correct execution being staged entries on weakness inside or slightly below the $63,300–$68,000 area, not an aggressive chase into the low-$70,000s against a heavy cost-basis wall. Short term, the tape is fragile enough to justify a cautious approach and tight risk management around $63,300 and $60,000. Medium term, the combination of structural ETF demand, long-term historical return profile and institutional targets keeps the bias firmly bullish, with $122,000–$150,000 a realistic range for the next major upside phase once the current range resolves.

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