Bitcoin Price Holds $107K as ETF Outflows, Macro Risk, and Miner Data Shape July Outlook

BTC-USD Consolidates Near $107K as Macro Winds and ETF Flows Battle for Control

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is hovering near $107,783, clinging to gains from a post-geopolitical surge that pushed prices off June lows near $98,240. A bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart set the stage for the recent advance, with BTC rallying sharply from a double bottom formation around $105,130. Yet while short-term bullish conviction is evident, technical ceilings remain unforgiving. Resistance looms at $108,800, with a more formidable ceiling at $110,587, a level that bulls have repeatedly failed to conquer. Until a daily close above $108,500 occurs with credible volume support, momentum remains speculative and prone to reversal.

The intraday range has tightened considerably — BTC traded between $105,402 and $107,727 — signaling coiled price action likely to resolve in a breakout or breakdown. With 24-hour volume clocking $27.94 billion, there's enough liquidity on the books, but direction remains indecisive. Oscillators confirm this hesitation: RSI at 56, Stochastic at 82, and CCI at 62 all suggest neutrality with a tilt toward exhaustion. The ADX at 13 reinforces the lack of trend strength, even as MACD at 567 and momentum at 6,787 suggest latent bullish bias.

Multi-Timeframe Charts Paint a Narrow but Critical Battle Zone

On the 1-hour chart, BTC has stair-stepped from $105,130 to $107,819, with a possible bull flag formation setting up a near-term test of $108,500. Volume backs the move, but overbought pressures are surfacing, setting up a likely pullback toward $106,800–$107,000 to validate support.

On the 4-hour timeframe, a double bottom breakout from $105,130 is powering the structure, but $108,800 remains the inflection level. Failure to reclaim that level risks another trip to the low $105,000s, with leveraged long liquidations potentially exacerbating downside if stops get triggered.

Meanwhile, the daily chart holds a broader bullish setup if $108,500–$109,000 clears decisively. A clean breakout could unleash upside toward $111,980, the May 22 all-time high. If not, risk tilts back to $104,305, where the 50-day EMA sits as soft support. Below that, the psychological round number of $100,000 re-emerges as a potential magnet.

ETF Outflows Break 15-Day Inflow Streak, Reflecting Defensive Posture

A critical shift occurred Tuesday when U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $342.2 million in outflows, halting a 15-day streak of inflows that began June 9. The retracement came from major players: Fidelity's FBTC (-$172.7M), Grayscale's GBTC (-$119.5M), ARKB (-$27M), and Bitwise's BITB (-$23M).

This ETF exodus signals a return to risk-off positioning, coinciding with a broader macro recalibration ahead of two key deadlines: Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” budget vote and the July 9 tariff pause expiration. These events introduce headline volatility and policy risk that Bitcoin traders are reluctant to absorb with leveraged positions.

Leveraged ETFs also saw a drop-off in volume, with two consecutive days of outflows and “muted participation,” according to K33 Research. Annualized BTC futures premiums on Binance fell to a 21-month low of 3.9%, while CME BTC futures dropped to 6.5%, confirming reduced appetite from institutional derivatives desks.

Institutional Demand Diverges as Coinbase Premium Remains Elevated

Despite softer ETF flows, institutional spot demand remains constructive. The Coinbase Premium Index — a signal of U.S.-regulated buying — has stayed positive for 73 straight days, suggesting that real-money accumulation continues beneath the surface. BlackRock’s IBIT now accounts for 55% of all U.S. BTC ETF holdings, while Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) added another 4,980 BTC worth $531.2 million, lifting total holdings to 597,325 BTC.

Other corporates are following suit. The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has nearly doubled in six months, pushing Bitcoin into mainstream treasury strategy. As liquidity returns and regulatory clarity improves, this wave of accumulation could result in a fresh supply squeeze — particularly as miner supply softens.

Bitcoin Miner Revenues and Hashrate Add Contrasting Signals

Bitcoin miners generated $2.0 billion in revenue in Q1 2025, with 53% gross margins, per JPMorgan. MARA Holdings (MARA) again led production volume, while IREN (IREN) posted record gross profit. However, the network’s monthly average hashrate fell 3% in June, indicating a potential slowdown in network growth and security. Some traders interpret this as a short-term bearish signal, especially if declining hashrate reflects operational pullback during periods of price stagnation.

Hashrate contraction, paired with subdued futures activity and ETF outflows, suggests that enthusiasm may be cooling — or at least pausing — despite favorable technicals.

Geopolitical Relief and Rate Cut Expectations Still Fuel Bullish Case

The geopolitical ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which briefly pushed BTC below $99,000, has faded into the background. Since then, Bitcoin has bounced over 8%, breaking past $108,000 before stabilizing. Traders now shift their gaze to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, due Thursday. A soft print could escalate expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, unleashing risk appetite across crypto.

Bitwise analysts remain bullish. Citing 20 historic post-crisis rebounds, they note that Bitcoin has returned +31% on average within 50 days following major geopolitical or macro events. If history rhymes, BTC could eye $136,000+ in Q3. Their base target remains $200,000 by year-end 2025, echoed by Bernstein and Standard Chartered, both citing liquidity, institutional inflows, and scarcity as structural tailwinds.

Technical Structure Supports Breakout Setup Toward $110K if $108,800 Clears

The price structure across all key timeframes shows bullish alignment. All major EMAs and SMAs — including the EMA-10 ($106,692), EMA-50 ($104,351), and SMA-200 ($96,314) — support upward bias. The RSI at 55, MACD histogram rising, and bullish crossovers on lower timeframes all point to continuation — contingent on clearing $108,800–$109,000.

Should BTC break above that ceiling and close above $109K on a 4-hour candle, the path to $111,980 ATH and $120,000 extension opens quickly. However, rejection at these levels — especially on fading volume — could see a retracement to $105,333, and failure there risks a dip toward $104,000–$100,000, particularly if ETF outflows intensify.

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