Bitcoin Price Rebounds to $117,768 But Faces ETF Outflows, Macro Stress

BTC-USD bounces to $117,768 but fails breakout as macro, ETF flows stay weak

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed to $117,768.10 by 17:06 UTC on July 29, staging a modest rebound after briefly dipping under $116,000 earlier in the week. The move came after five straight red candles and an intraday reclaim of the $117,000 threshold, but it failed to hold above $118,500 — the key resistance zone. Bitcoin remains locked in a fragile structure between $114,800 and $118,900, with no confirmation of bullish reversal. The rebound lacked volume, and key momentum indicators stayed muted. Traders are now eyeing the $114,000–$115,000 zone as critical structural support before July closes, especially with the FOMC and August 1 tariff deadline looming. There’s no breakout without sustained pressure above $119,500, and bulls know it.

Whales take profits near $118K as retail activity fades again

Whale wallets controlling over 1,000 BTC offloaded over 13,800 BTC between July 26 and 29, perfectly timed around the $118K mark. Glassnode shows that exchange inflows outpaced outflows for the first time in nine days, suggesting capital rotation into stablecoins or sidelines. New address creation dropped 5.4% week-over-week, and daily active users dipped below 850,000 — the lowest since April. Dormant supply is rising, and long-term holder spending has ticked up, indicating smart money is distributing into strength. Bitcoin dominance remains stable at 52.1%, but only because altcoins are suffering equally — not because BTC is leading.

ETF demand softens: IBIT sees $22M outflows, open interest declines

Spot ETF flows turned negative again, with BlackRock’s IBIT losing $22.1M and Fidelity’s FBTC flat. Daily volume in Bitcoin ETFs dropped nearly 38% vs. July average, showing fading institutional demand. Total cumulative ETF inflow now stands at $15.3B, but that number has barely budged in two weeks. Derivatives aren’t faring better: open interest across Binance, Bybit, and CME fell 4.1%, while the Binance funding rate printed -0.0092%, the lowest since March. Risk appetite among leveraged players is fading. No new ETF narrative has emerged, and spot flows aren’t replacing that void.

Macro pressures dominate: Fed tone, dollar strength, and trade risk limit upside

The macro setup remains defensive. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.35%, pricing out any near-term rate cut, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) firmed to 98.94. With the Federal Reserve set to speak on July 31, markets expect a hawkish hold — no rate move, but tighter guidance. Crypto assets, already sensitive to liquidity, are exposed to even modest upticks in rate expectations. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tariff ultimatum tied to the August 1 trade deadline continues to weigh on investor confidence. With no resolution for Taiwan, South Korea, and Mexico, BTC’s sensitivity to global risk remains elevated. Bitcoin’s muted response to Nasdaq and S&P volatility shows that traders aren’t viewing it as a macro hedge this cycle — at least not yet.

RSI flat, MACD bearish, and EMAs showing a soft trend rejection

Bitcoin’s technical setup remains unresolved. The daily RSI closed at 49.8, dead center in no man’s land. There’s no bullish divergence, and price is hovering just under the 20-day EMA at $118,500. The MACD histogram remains negative, and the 9/26 crossover continues to widen to the downside. Worse, the 50-day EMA just crossed below the 100-day EMA — a trend degradation not seen since Q4 2023. If BTC fails to reclaim $119.5K this week, the next high-volume node support lies at $114,800, followed by a potential sweep of the 200-day MA at $112,400. Resistance remains thick between $118,900 and $120,500, where liquidation levels and supply clusters are stacked.

Sentiment weak: Fear & Greed Index stuck at 39, social volume plummets

Crypto sentiment remains anchored in fear. The Fear & Greed Index is holding at 39, its lowest since the May flash dip. Reddit mentions of “Bitcoin ETF” fell 21% week-over-week, while Google search interest for “Bitcoin price” dropped 18%, despite intraday volatility. Telegram trading channels and Discord sentiment trackers show neutral-to-bearish tone, with short-term retail interest notably absent. Even meme token volume dropped 36% in the past 5 days, suggesting retail disengagement beyond Bitcoin. With the ETF wave priced in and macro narratives stale, BTC lacks emotional momentum — which has historically been critical to upward breakouts.

Buy zones thinning out: Bulls must defend $114,800 or risk larger breakdown

While bulls continue defending the $115K zone, repeated tests are weakening it. If price breaks that shelf, the next major buy zone isn’t until $111,000–$112,400, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and a prior March support cluster. Volume-weighted average price (VWAP) from the January breakout sits at $110,750, giving further weight to that level. On the upside, bulls must close above $119,500 with rising volume to shift the trend. Until that happens, this is a sideways-to-down structure with aggressive upside capped by whale distribution and ETF outflows.

Verdict: HOLD — Bitcoin stuck between technical damage and macro paralysis

This is not a bullish breakout — it’s a technical reaction. Bitcoin reclaiming $117,768.10 is not enough without follow-through above $119.5K, and none of the core drivers — ETF flows, whale accumulation, macro policy, or technical breakout — are flashing green. While price hasn’t broken down, there’s also no actionable momentum to chase. Risk/reward is neutral at best, and sentiment is fading. Unless the Fed surprises dovish or whales re-enter above $120K, Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable sideways churn. Verdict: HOLD — stay defensive, wait for clarity, and avoid emotional entries near resistance.

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