Bitcoin Reclaims $103K — Breakout to $107K or Reversal to $98K?
Can Bitcoin break above $107K as ETF inflows rise and geopolitical tension escalates? | That's TradingNEWS
Bitcoin Battles $103K Resistance as Fed, Iran, and ETF Flow Set the Tone
Fed Policy, Tariffs, and War Risk Shape BTC Volatility
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is showing signs of renewed volatility, holding just above $103,000 in Monday’s early trade after briefly dipping below $102,400 during the previous session. Traders are reacting to layered geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, including a potential U.S. military escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, hawkish Fed tone, and resurging stablecoin inflows. As of 10:22 AM ET, BTC/USD is trading at $103,070, up +0.3% on the day. The broader crypto market remains cautious, with Ethereum (ETH-USD) hovering below $5,460 and XRP (XRP-USD) flat near $0.498.
Stablecoin Inflows Fuel Demand – Is Bitcoin Preparing a Breakout?
On-chain metrics show a sharp rise in USDT and USDC inflows to centralized exchanges, suggesting institutional capital is reentering the crypto ecosystem. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that over $780 million in stablecoins entered exchanges over the weekend, with much of that flow concentrated on Coinbase and Binance. This liquidity surge has historically preceded upward price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, funding rates remain mixed—implying derivative traders are cautious amid uncertainty over the Fed’s next move and Trump’s tariff proposals.
Geopolitics and Bitcoin: Safe Haven or Speculative Risk?
Bitcoin’s correlation to geopolitical crises is once again under the spotlight. Iran’s Supreme Leader warned of “irreparable damage” if the U.S. intervenes militarily, prompting speculative bids in hard assets including gold and Bitcoin. Oil surged above $76 for WTI and nearly $77 for Brent, reinforcing inflation risks. Meanwhile, Circle’s CRCL stock surged +7.19% to $159.87 as Congress advanced stablecoin legislation—further validating digital asset legitimacy. Bitcoin may find renewed demand if these tensions escalate further. However, the $104,600 resistance zone remains a ceiling unless global risk appetite rebounds sharply.
ETF Watch: Is Institutional Buying Picking Up?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows last week, reversing the prior two-week outflow trend. BlackRock’s IBIT added $88.2 million on Friday alone, the strongest single-day net inflow since May. If this trend holds, BTC could be targeting the $106K–$107K range in coming sessions. However, Grayscale’s GBTC continues to bleed, losing -$124 million over the same period, suggesting retail remains hesitant.
Technical Structure: Can BTC Hold the Uptrend from $97K?
BTC/USD continues to trade above its rising 50-day moving average near $100,900, a key trendline that has supported every dip since April. The 21-day EMA at $102,300 now acts as dynamic support, while resistance stands firm at $104,600, the upper Bollinger Band and former breakdown point. A clean breakout above that level opens the door to $107,400, while failure to hold above $101,800 increases the probability of a retest of $98,000 support.
Derivatives: Funding Rates Split, Open Interest Mixed
Funding rates on Binance and OKX flipped marginally positive on Sunday, while Bybit remained flat. Open interest across BTC perpetual futures rose +2.8% overnight to $15.4 billion, indicating cautious long-side exposure is returning. However, put-call ratios and options skew still suggest hedging dominates positioning ahead of the Fed decision and further updates on stablecoin regulation.
Insider Risk-On Signals: Coinbase, Circle, and Tesla Watch
Circle’s IPO momentum is spilling into broader crypto sentiment. With CRCL now up nearly 380% since its $31 IPO, investor focus is shifting toward regulatory clarity and payment adoption. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) remains under scrutiny—analysts expect it may soon disclose additional Bitcoin purchases in Q2 filings, especially with Elon Musk’s xAI reportedly burning through $1B/month in compute expenses. Any indication Tesla is reaccumulating BTC would provide another major institutional tailwind.
Will Bitcoin Reclaim $107K as ETF Inflows and Stablecoin Momentum Build?
Buy/Sell/Hold Verdict: Tactical BUY (Target $107,400, Support $98,000)
The macro backdrop remains tense, but flows, technical support, and regulatory progress point to bullish momentum building under the surface. As long as BTC holds above $101,800, the setup favors a tactical long targeting $107,000+ in the near term. However, a break below $98,000 would flip the bias to neutral.
