Bitcoin Stuck at $108K: Whales Retreat, ETFs Surge—Is $120K in Sight or Will $96K Crack First?

Bitcoin Hovers at $108K: ETF Inflows Surge While Whales Pull Back—Is $120K Next or Will $96K Crack First?

BTC-USD Struggles to Hold $109K as Institutional Demand Clashes With Whale Distribution

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is hovering near $108,400 after slipping from its recent high of $111,980. The recovery attempt stalled just under the $109,588 breakout level, now a zone fiercely defended by short-term sellers. This comes as the Accumulation Trend Score for whale wallets—those holding 10,000+ BTC—slumped to 0.4, signaling a shift from aggressive buying to cautious profit-taking.

While Japanese investment firm Metaplanet raised $21 million to add to its 7,800 BTC treasury and GameStop (NYSE:GME) acquired 4,710 BTC, data from Glassnode reveals a reversal in exchange flows. Whale entities that previously withdrew large BTC volumes are now redepositing to exchanges—often a precursor to distribution.

ETF flows, however, tell a contrasting story. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $432.6 million in net inflows on May 28 alone, continuing a streak that began mid-May. The inflows mark a bullish divergence between institutional investment vehicles and direct whale action, suggesting that retail and asset managers still view BTC as a long-term strategic hold.

Macro Sentiment Shifts After Tariff Ruling—But BTC Lags Nasdaq and S&P 500 Gains

A U.S. federal trade court issued a permanent injunction blocking the Trump administration’s broad-based tariffs under emergency powers, triggering a 1.7% jump in Nasdaq 100 futures and a 1.2% rise in S&P 500 futures. However, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) barely moved in response, highlighting a growing decoupling between crypto and equities—at least short term.

The macro backdrop remains tense. Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed officials are concerned about “persistent inflation” alongside weakening growth, putting the central bank in a potential bind. As Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to interest rates, Thursday’s second GDP reading and weekly jobless claims are expected to guide near-term risk appetite.

If GDP prints stronger than expected, or claims decline, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may firm, adding pressure to BTC. Conversely, soft data may trigger renewed buying, especially as spot ETFs act as an institutional onramp during macro dips.

Technical Breakdown: BTC Eyes $106K, but $100K Psychological Floor Remains Solid

Technically, BTC/USD lost momentum after rejecting at $109,588. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 62, down from recent overbought territory, while the MACD has crossed bearish, with growing red histogram bars suggesting downside continuation.

Immediate support lies at $106,406—a level BTC has tested twice in the last 72 hours. A close below that opens the door to $100,000, a psychologically critical threshold. Below that, $96,000–$97,000 has emerged as a high-volume imbalance zone where bulls previously stepped in aggressively.

However, if Bitcoin can retake $111,980 with volume confirmation, the next upside target shifts toward $120,000, with potential acceleration to $130,000 based on Fib extension and on-chain resistance metrics.

Optimized Trend Tracker Flashes Breakout: $200K Not Impossible, But Confirmation Needed

The Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT)—a macro moving average tool used by quant desks—has triggered its first bullish signal since mid-2024. The last time this signal appeared, BTC ran from $69K to $111K within months. Current OTT breakout aligns with structural support retests, adding weight to bullish continuation narratives.

Some models now price in a potential extension to $200,000 by year-end, with an upper range target of $250,000 in 2026—should ETFs, institutions, and global demand converge in Q3/Q4. Still, analysts caution that such moves depend on reclaiming $120K quickly and sustaining momentum above new all-time highs.

Whale Behavior Splits: Some Accumulate at $106K While Others Prep to Sell

While some whales are sending BTC back to exchanges, Material Indicators notes continued accumulation near $100K–$107K. This divergence implies mixed conviction among high-cap holders. The last two days saw an uptick in deposits, but wallets under the 10,000 BTC threshold continued net buying.

Glassnode highlights that this push-pull dynamic typically resolves at inflection zones—and the market is now stuck between post-breakout consolidation and the fear of a repeat crash like in 2021, where massive accumulation at $69K preceded a 40% drawdown.

Where Does BTC-USD Go Next? Critical Levels and Volatility Ahead

• Immediate Resistance: $109,588

• Breakout Trigger: $111,980

• Upside Targets: $120,000 → $130,000

• Key Support: $106,406

• Bear Trap Zone: $100,000

• Capitulation Zone: $96,000–$97,000

With volatility compressing and macro triggers approaching, Bitcoin is set for a decisive move within days. The direction will likely depend on whether ETF inflows continue to overpower whale caution and whether macro data tilts the Fed more dovish—or even neutral.

Verdict: HOLD BTC — Watch $106K Like a Hawk, Add on Dips to $100K, Confirm Above $112K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is in a pivotal zone. Despite clear weakening in short-term momentum and a split among whales, the underlying strength in institutional ETF flows and the long-term OTT breakout argue against panic. However, bulls must defend $106K with conviction. A breakdown below $100K could lead to violent unwinding, while confirmation above $112K could reignite the next leg toward $120K+.

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