Boeing Stock Price Forecast – BA Stock Hovers Near $243 as Orders, Cash Flow and 737 MAX Output Rebuild Confidence

Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) – price, valuation and where the turnaround stands now

Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) trades around $242–$243, near a 52-week range of roughly $129 to $254 and at a market value of about $191 billion. On current earnings, that implies a trailing P/E close to 100x and revenue growth of around 35% year on year as the company climbs out of the post-pandemic and MAX crisis hole. The market is clearly paying ahead of time for a multi-year recovery in cash flow, not for today’s profitability. For real-time pricing, you are tracking it via your live chart, which keeps the current tape central to any long-term thesis.

Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) – Q4 2025 optics flattered by divestiture, not by core profit

Headline fourth-quarter numbers looked explosive: revenue up roughly 57% to about $23.9 billion, GAAP operating income swinging from a loss of around $3.8 billion to a profit near $8.8 billion, and EPS moving from a loss of more than $5 per share to a gain above $10. Non-GAAP earnings showed a similar flip from roughly a $4 billion loss to about $8.5 billion profit. The problem is the source of that “profit”. Almost the entire EPS surge comes from the sale of the Digital Aviation Solutions unit, which added around $11.8 per share. Remove that one-off and Boeing is still loss-making on an operating basis. The real story in Q4 is not a clean transition from loss to healthy profitability; it is a move from a large operational loss to a smaller operational loss with an accounting gain layered on top. The market cannot treat that as repeatable earnings power.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes – delivery surge, MAX and 787 progress, 777X cash drag

The commercial division finally resembles a functioning large-scale manufacturer again. Quarterly revenue for Boeing Commercial Airplanes jumped from roughly $4.8 billion to around $11.4 billion as deliveries climbed from 57 to about 160 aircraft year on year. That acceleration comes from higher production rates on the 737 and 787 and the absence of last year’s work stoppage. Even with that volume, segment profitability is still thin. Internal modelling in the material you supplied expected an operating loss in the $550 million area; actual performance came in weaker as a larger slice of corporate overhead was allocated to the commercial P&L, and an additional 777X-related charge pressed margins. On the narrowbody side, 737 MAX production has increased from about 38 to 42 aircraft per month, with management guiding to 47 per month later this year and a potential move to 52 per month in late-2026 or early-2027. Before the MAX crisis, Boeing struggled to sustain production above 50 per month. That next step therefore is a real execution test, not a formality. Inventory has been largely flushed: only one MAX 8 remains, alongside roughly 35 MAX 7 and MAX 10 units waiting for certification, which is still targeted for this year. That shifts cash generation from inventory drawdown back to pure throughput. On the widebody side, the 787 program is stabilising at about eight aircraft per month with plans to increase to ten as the supply chain, especially seats and certification, catches up. Only five Dreamliners remain in inventory, so the big working-capital tailwind from stored jets is almost gone. The 777X remains the most complex commercial program. Certification has advanced into the TIA3 test phase covering avionics, environmental systems and auxiliary power units. A durability issue on the GE9X engines has been flagged, but first delivery is still guided for 2027. Cash is the real issue. Because pre-delivery payments came in years ago, current build and preparation activity generates a net cash outflow larger than a normal cycle would. Management only expects 777X to be cash positive on a unit basis around 2029, almost ten years after the original optimistic 2019 service-entry target. Commercial aviation, in short, has momentum on volumes and backlog but is still carrying heavy cash and margin drag from legacy decisions.

Boeing Defense, Space & Security – recurring losses and fixed-price contract risk

The defense, space and security business remains a weak link. Q4 revenue was slightly ahead of internal expectations by around $80–90 million, but instead of producing a modest profit of roughly $150 million, the segment reported a loss near $500 million. The core reason was another reach-forward loss of about $565 million on the KC-46A tanker program. Even adjusting for that specific charge, margin would be under 1%, which is far below where a mature defense franchise should be. The broader problem is structural. Legacy fixed-price contracts, including KC-46A and the VC-25B presidential aircraft, continue to carry significant cost-overrun risk. Boeing is negotiating new terms on VC-25B, and any schedule reset is likely to bring more loss recognition. Integrating Spirit AeroSystems into the broader industrial base will also shift risks back in-house on multiple defense and widebody programs that had previously been pushed to suppliers. Over the long term that can help margins by removing supplier mark-ups and improving coordination, but in the near term it increases the on-balance-sheet exposure to execution missteps. Defense gives Boeing scale and backlog but, right now, little in the way of clean, high-quality profit.

Boeing Global Services – high-margin, steady cash contributor

The services arm is the most predictable contributor in the portfolio. Boeing Global Services increased revenue by about 2% in Q4, missing internal forecasts by roughly $40 million, yet delivered adjusted operating margins around 18.8%, slightly better than expected. That translated into about $7 million more profit than the projections in the material you provided. The services backlog has reached a record near $30 billion, underpinned by long-term contracts such as C-17 cockpit modernisation for the United States Air Force and ongoing commercial maintenance, parts and digital solutions. It does not offer the headline growth of the commercial jet business, but it stabilises free cash flow with a recurring, support-driven base tied to a growing installed fleet.

Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) – cash, debt, free cash flow and balance-sheet trajectory

By the end of 2025, Boeing held around $29.4 billion in cash against roughly $54.1 billion of consolidated debt, versus $23 billion of cash and $53.4 billion of debt the prior quarter. That leaves net debt near $24.7 billion, down from about $30.4 billion. The improvement is heavily influenced by the Digital Aviation Solutions sale proceeds rather than by organic cash generation alone. Operating cash flow in Q4 was about $1.3 billion, with free cash flow at roughly $375 million. That is a welcome change after years of deep cash burn but remains modest against an enterprise value north of $215 billion once net debt is included. The internal long-term framework you cited expects Boeing to deliver around $10 billion of annual free cash flow by 2028 as 737 and 787 production rates rise, 777X moves past its peak cash-burn years and the Spirit integration starts to eliminate duplicated margins in the supply chain. At the current equity price and debt load, that implies an implied enterprise-value-to-future-FCF multiple a little above 21x on that 2028 cash flow, before discounting back. In other words, the market is already capitalising a large portion of the future recovery. Debt strategy is central. The expectation path is a 2026 dip in margins versus 2025 as the divestiture one-off drops out, but with operational performance improving; a 2027 step-up in cash flow that supports organic deleveraging; and a 2028–2029 phase where free cash flow accelerates and allows both aggressive debt paydown and opportunistic refinancing at lower rates. Some sell-side work bakes in dividend resumption around 2027. The more conservative view in your material, which is rational at this leverage level, is that Boeing should focus on driving net debt toward zero around 2029 before using excess cash for dividends or buybacks. 

Backlog, orders and growth runway – why the bullish narrative exists at all

Full-year 2025 revenue reached about $89.5 billion, up roughly 35% from 2024, confirming that demand is not the problem. Boeing booked around 1,175 gross commercial orders versus roughly 1,000 for Airbus, the first time since 2018 that Boeing out-ordered its European rival. Total backlog sits at more than 6,100 aircraft and approximately $700 billion in value across commercial, defense and services. Commercial backlog is in the mid-$500 billion area, defense orders around $85 billion and services near $30 billion. Deliveries hit 600 aircraft in 2025, the highest level in seven years, and management is guiding for about 10% more units in 2026. That gives Boeing multi-year visibility on production and revenue. Importantly, the order book is not concentrated in one geography or one carrier. Orders from airlines such as Alaska Air Group and Ethiopian Airlines, among others, diversify the exposure. If any specific region faces weaker traffic or funding stress, cancellations or deferrals hurt margins but are unlikely to wreck the aggregate backlog. This backlog is effectively a long-dated revenue and cash-flow pipeline that, if executed efficiently, justifies a premium multiple versus a typical industrial name.

Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) – valuation against peers and history

At roughly $243 per share, Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) trades on price-to-sales and enterprise-value-to-sales ratios broadly in line with industrial aerospace peers while carrying a small premium to its own longer-run averages. That premium is defensible because the direction of travel has flipped from negative to positive: volumes are up, backlogs are larger, and cash flow is no longer decisively negative. On earnings metrics, the stock still looks expensive, with a forward P/E in triple digits because profits are depressed and distorted by one-offs. On a free-cash-flow basis, using the internal $10 billion 2028 target, the stock implies low-20s EV/FCF on future cash generation, not current. Work you referenced suggests there is little upside left versus a 2027 earnings base, which would normally argue for a Hold stance. The upside appears when you extend the horizon: a 2028 target near $328 per share implies around 38% capital appreciation from current levels if Boeing actually delivers that free-cash-flow normalisation, with incremental upside beyond 2028 as debt falls and cash accumulates. The current valuation therefore is not cheap; it is a priced-for-execution turnaround.

Risk set – certification, safety, integration and cycle sensitivity

Multiple risk clusters sit directly against that valuation. Certification risk remains elevated on the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants and on the 777X. Any renewed delay would ripple through deliveries, customer confidence and milestone payments. Safety and regulatory risk remains in focus after years of incidents and heightened Federal Aviation Administration oversight. Any new safety event could trigger groundings, penalties or forced production changes, which would pressure both cash and reputation. Integration of Spirit AeroSystems is another execution gauntlet. Bringing core structures and components back inside the Boeing perimeter should, over time, capture supplier margin and improve coordination, but in the near term it drags on cash and forces Boeing to absorb risk it previously pushed into the supply chain. The defense segment is still exposed to fixed-price contracts with a history of reach-forward losses, as shown again by the KC-46A charge, and renegotiation of VC-25B terms could easily trigger additional hits. Finally, macro and cycle risks are real. A global air-traffic downturn, tighter airline financing conditions or a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment would slow new orders and promote deferrals. With net debt still in the mid-$20-billion range, Boeing has less room to absorb a serious air-cycle shock than in past decades.

Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) – Buy, Sell or Hold?

On the numbers and risk profile you provided, Boeing Stock (NYSE:BA) is not a low-risk compounder; it is a leveraged, execution-heavy turnaround priced for success. The backlog, production ramp, and 2028 free-cash-flow potential support a bullish long-term narrative, but the path is narrow and exposed to program, regulatory and macro shocks. With the stock near $243 and internal modelling pointing to a fundamentally supported level with real upside only emerging around 2028, the clean label is a speculative Buy for investors who are willing to accept volatility, program risk and a multi-year holding period. For anyone demanding a wide margin of safety or short-horizon certainty, the current valuation and leverage profile push it closer to Hold.

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