Ethereum Price Battles Below $2,500 As $870M Selling Wave Hits — Will $2,344 Support Hold?

Ethereum hovers below $2,500 as bulls and bears fight key levels

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades at $2,476 after shedding momentum near the $2,600 zone. Sellers have pushed over $870 million worth of ETH, about 350,000 coins, onto exchanges in the past five days — a clear warning that short-term conviction is waning. Simultaneously, long-term holders (LTHs) have begun increasing their activity, with Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) spiking, indicating that some seasoned investors are reducing exposure.

ETH-USD remains pinned below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), now at $2,461. The failure to reclaim this level during the post-Thursday recovery hints at fragile buyer control. The MACD continues to decline toward zero with increasing red histogram bars, while the RSI has turned lower toward the 50 mark, showing deteriorating momentum. Without a rapid push back above $2,700, ETH-USD is exposed to fresh downside risk, potentially sliding to the next key support at $2,344.

Wyckoff pattern builds tension as bulls eye $4,000 breakout potential

Despite current weakness, several analysts highlight that ETH-USD remains within a Wyckoff accumulation phase. After rebounding from the $2,190 low — marked as the “last point of support” in this pattern — Ethereum has held its range between $2,400 and $2,700 since mid-May. CryptoCaesar noted that ETH may have completed the “spring” stage, now primed to target $3,000 first, with $4,000 in sight if resistance zones at $2,810 and $3,000 break.

Supporting this structure, technical similarities are emerging to the pattern seen during ETH’s 2024 rally to $4,000. Bulls now face stiff resistance at $2,640 and $2,730, according to MEXC COO Tracy Chen. If those levels flip, ETH-USD could accelerate toward $3,069 and ultimately $3,465, depending on market sentiment shifts.

Exchange flows and long-term holder sell pressure raise caution

Ethereum exchange net position change data is flashing a bearish signal. Over $870 million in ETH has returned to exchange wallets over the past five days. This follows a multi-week rise in CDD, suggesting LTHs are reducing their positions. When combined with the rise in aggressive taker sell volume, the market is showing increasing signs of caution from key players.

Unless this selling trend reverses, ETH-USD could struggle to reclaim $2,600. The $2,344 support becomes crucial: a break below it may open the door toward $2,205, which is where the next buyer wall currently sits.

ETF inflows strengthen long-term bull case despite short-term weakness

Amid market uncertainty, one bright spot remains — institutional demand via Ether exchange-traded products (ETPs). Last week, ETH ETPs recorded $296 million in inflows, their strongest weekly intake since late 2024. ETH-USD is currently holding above $2,500 partially on the back of this institutional demand, as ETFs now account for over 10.5% of all crypto ETP assets under management.

Bitget’s Ryan Lee forecasts ETH-USD staying within the $2,400–$2,800 range near term but acknowledges that ETP demand could help drive the next push toward $2,700 and beyond. Still, he warns that trade tensions and deflationary concerns could limit near-term upside.

Taker buy-sell ratio points to rising bearish dominance

Market internals confirm that recent ETH weakness is not just passive drifting. The ETH Taker Buy-Sell Ratio 30-day moving average has been falling, indicating that aggressive sellers are increasingly dominating order flow. This aligns with profit-taking and distribution, particularly as ETH-USD has repeatedly failed to break $2,600.

This pattern reinforces the risk of deeper correction unless bulls can regain urgency and reverse the flow dynamics. Until the Taker Ratio stabilizes and rises, expecting a sustainable breakout above $2,700 would be premature.

Technical structure mirrors early 2024 setup — breakout still possible

While sentiment appears mixed, ETH-USD’s price structure still mirrors the bullish flag seen before its 2024 breakout past $4,000. To confirm another move higher, bulls must drive a decisive breakout above $2,749 and sustain gains toward $3,069. Failure to breach this zone will risk renewed bear control.

On the downside, the key IOMAP support between $2,349 and $2,426 holds 64.88 million ETH in unrealized gains — this is the line bulls must defend to avoid cascading losses. If breached, the path to $2,205 becomes likely.

Macro risks and US-China trade uncertainty cap upside

Broader crypto markets, including ETH-USD, remain sensitive to macro headwinds. Monday’s US-China trade talks in London risk triggering volatility across risk assets. Ethereum’s earlier 50% rally now faces resistance from both technical ceilings and a less favorable macro backdrop.

With US CPI data due Wednesday, markets remain cautious. Trade tensions, along with hawkish Fed expectations, could renew USD strength and suppress ETH upside.

Buy, sell or hold ETH-USD?

After covering all data points, here is the decisive call: Hold for now.

While ETF inflows, strong IOMAP support, and the Wyckoff setup provide bullish longer-term signals, the current rising sell pressure from LTHs and aggressive short-term traders argue against aggressive buying here. If $2,344 breaks, ETH-USD could swiftly test $2,205. On the flip side, reclaiming $2,640 would open room toward $3,069.

Therefore, prudent investors should hold existing positions but refrain from adding aggressively until ETH-USD closes above $2,640 with improving volume and buy flow. Risk of a further pullback remains elevated in the short term.

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