Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD at $1,950: Oversold ETH-USD Between $1,370 Support and $2,960 Target

Ethereum (ETH-USD): deep drawdown, fragile bounce

ETH-USD price, drawdown and current performance

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around the $1,950 area, with recent intraday prints between roughly $1,905.12 and $1,986.59. Over the last 30 days, ETH is down about 32.86% and over the last six months the drawdown sits near 54.54%. Year-to-date losses are around 34.29%, but the three-year change is still positive at roughly 15.72%, showing how far price has fallen from prior peaks. The rebound from the February 6 low near $1,740 toward roughly $1,970 represents about 4.5% from the local bottom, but this is happening inside a clearly defined downtrend rather than after it. Daily volatility remains elevated, with a recent range of $1,905.12–$1,986.59 equating to roughly 4.3% intraday movement, which is typical for a market still in a corrective phase.

Key structural levels on ETH-USD

The short-term map is clean. The lower Bollinger Band sits around $1,464.64, which is the first deep “flush” support. The middle band near $2,249.90 is the initial resistance line for any rebound. Above that, the 50-day moving average around $2,683.73 is roughly 37.8% above spot and acts as the primary medium-term resistance. The 200-day moving average around $3,514.14 is the longer-term trend barrier. The previous year high near $4,955.90 is still more than 150% above the current zone. Trading well below the mid band and both moving averages confirms ETH is in a late-stage downtrend where valuation arguments start to appear but trend pressure is still negative.

Momentum signals: oversold but not yet reversed

Momentum indicators are already at stressed levels. The RSI around 31.64 sits just above classic oversold territory and confirms that heavy selling has already occurred. Stochastic oscillators near 29.25 (%K) and 24.13 (%D) echo the same oversold message, while Williams %R around -63.32 indicates that price is near the lower end of its recent range. Between February 15 and February 19, a bullish divergence appeared as price printed a lower low while RSI printed a higher low, which helped trigger the bounce from about $1,740 toward the $1,900–$1,970 region. This is the constructive part of the picture: sellers are no longer in full control of every move.

Trend indicators: ADX and MACD confirm the downtrend

Trend tools are less forgiving. The MACD line sits near -256.77, the signal line near -259.25, and the histogram around 2.48, pointing to a possible bullish crossover but still on the negative side of the axis. More importantly, the ADX around 46.87 signals a very strong trend, and the active trend is down. That combination means ETH is oversold inside a powerful downtrend, not a clean reversal. Short squeezes and sharp bounces can develop from here, but the burden of proof remains on the upside until price starts reclaiming key resistance bands.

Staking demand collapse and liquid supply returning

The structural change is coming from staking. Over the last six months, cumulative net staking deposits dropped from around 1,994,282 ETH on January 13 to roughly 1,008,012 ETH on February 22, a decline of about 986,000 ETH, close to 50%. Staking normally removes coins from circulation because locked ETH cannot be easily sold. When staking demand falls this hard, it means a larger share of supply stays liquid or returns to the market. The trade-off shifted: at current prices and risk profile, yield on staked ETH is no longer enough to offset the desire for flexibility and cash. That erosion in staking demand directly reduces one of ETH’s key supply sinks.

Exchange balances: more ETH sitting on the sell side

Exchange data confirms that this returning supply is not just theoretical. Exchange balances have climbed from about 14,241,203 ETH to roughly 14,586,720 ETH, an increase of around 345,500 ETH, or approximately 2.4% in a short period. The last time balances sat at similar levels, around February 4, ETH-USD dropped from roughly $2,140 to around $1,820 in a single day, nearly a 15% intraday collapse. Rising exchange balances in a market that is already trending lower usually means more inventory is available to sell into any bounce, and that is exactly the set-up that is forming now.

Whale positioning: distribution into the rebound

Large holders are reducing exposure rather than adding. Since February 19, on-chain whale balances fell from about 113.65 million ETH to 113.42 million ETH, a reduction of roughly 230,000 ETH. This selling coincided with the move off the $1,740 low toward the $1,900–$1,970 area, which is classic behaviour of big holders using strength to exit, not to support a reversal. Combined with the extra 345,500 ETH sitting on exchanges and the roughly 986,000 ETH drop in net staking deposits, the whale selling confirms that supply is actively rotating toward liquidity.

Vitalik Buterin’s sales and the MVRV undervaluation signal

Flows from Vitalik Buterin add a clear sentiment layer. On February 22, he withdrew 3,500 ETH from Aave, worth about $6.95 million, and quickly sold 571 ETH for roughly $1.13 million. Since February 2, he has sold more than 7,380 ETH for about $15.5 million, at an average price close to $2,100, off the 16,384 ETH initially allocated for a “mild austerity” plan. That means more than half of this reserve has already been liquidated in less than a month. This is happening while ETH-USD is already down about 30% over that period and trades just under $2,000. On-chain valuation metrics like the 30-day MVRV now show heavy undervaluation for ETH, a zone that historically precedes strong long-term entries, but founder sales, whale distribution and rising exchange balances argue that the timing of large new allocations still faces a serious flow headwind.

Cost basis clusters and resistance between $2,020 and $2,070

On-chain realised price distribution shows a concentrated cost basis block between roughly $2,020 and $2,070, where more than 2% of ETH supply sits. This band lines up with chart resistance and with the area where price rejected quickly in early February, when ETH-USD dropped from around $2,140 down to the $1,820 region. Short term, the critical checkpoints on the upside are around $2,050, then $2,140, and above that roughly $2,300. That $2,020–$2,070 pocket is exactly where many holders are at breakeven and will be tempted to sell if price reaches it again. With staking demand falling, whales selling and extra inventory on exchanges, absorbing this cost-basis supply block requires a clear and visible surge in demand that is not evident yet.

Downside risk zones: $1,890, $1,740 and $1,464

On the downside, the first important level is around $1,890, about 4% below recent prints. A clean break below that support reopens the path toward the February 6 low near $1,740, which is the key short-term floor. If that level fails, the market can slide toward the lower Bollinger band around $1,464.64, about 24.8% under current pricing. That deep support area around $1,460–$1,500 is where forced selling, liquidations and capitulation flows would likely accelerate, but also where multi-month contrarian buyers typically become far more aggressive.

Model paths for ETH-USD: bearish extension versus recovery track

Quantitative scenarios outline two main paths. On the downside, a one-month projection around $1,370.11 represents another 29.7% fall from current levels and would sit slightly below the current lower Bollinger band, consistent with a full extension of the existing downtrend. On the recovery side, a quarterly scenario projects ETH back toward $2,731.37, a 40.3% gain that lines up with the 50-day moving average near $2,683.73, while a one-year target around $2,960.01 implies roughly 52% upside from here. Longer views suggest potential moves toward $3,090.73 over three years and $3,222.01 over five years. These paths assume that oversold conditions eventually transition into a repair phase where ETH starts reclaiming the mid-band and then the 50-day average, but they are conditional on a turn in flows: staking stabilising, exchange balances flattening and whales slowing their selling.

Tactical stance on Ethereum (ETH-USD) at current levels

At around $1,950, ETH-USD sits at the intersection of two strong forces. On one side, the market is deeply oversold, with RSI near 31.64, stochastic around 29.25, and a six-month drawdown of roughly 54.54%, a profile that in previous cycles eventually produced strong rebounds. On the other side, the downtrend remains powerful, with ADX near 46.87, a MACD still negative, staking demand cut by roughly 986,000 ETH, exchange balances up about 345,500 ETH, whales selling around 230,000 ETH, and Vitalik Buterin liquidating more than 7,380 ETH in under a month. The key zone on the upside is around $2,020–$2,070, then $2,140, and $2,249.90 at the mid Bollinger band. On the downside, $1,890, $1,740 and $1,464.64 are the levels that decide whether this remains a controlled correction or spills into another capitulation leg.

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