Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Drops Below $2,000 as DeFi Shrinks and Big Buyers Step In

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Oversold Break Below $2,000 With Heavy Accumulation Under The Surface

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Price, drawdown and current positioning

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around $1,930–$1,950, down roughly 3–5% on the day and close to 14% lower over the past week. The coin sits about 60% below its all-time high near $4,950, with more than 38% erased in the last month alone. At these levels, roughly 41.5% of addresses are in profit, while about 58% are carrying unrealized losses, so most late-cycle buyers are under water and any bounce faces heavy overhead supply from participants waiting to exit near breakeven around $2,000–$2,150. The $2,000 zone has already flipped from support into resistance, confirming that the short-term structure in Ethereum (ETH-USD) remains negative until that band is reclaimed on a sustained closing basis.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Whale supply, mid-sized wallets and the tilt toward smaller holders

Large wallets with at least 1,000 ETH now control less than 75% of total supply for the first time in seven months, after disposing of or redistributing roughly 1.5% of circulating coins since December. That shows deliberate de-risking at the top end in response to volatility and macro uncertainty. At the same time, mid-tier addresses holding 1–1,000 ETH have lifted their share above 23%, and sub-1 ETH wallets now hold a record 2.3% of supply, with much of that linked to staking and long-only strategies. Ownership of Ethereum (ETH-USD) is slowly migrating away from a handful of very large entities toward a broader base of smaller and mid-size holders, which lowers single-point concentration risk but also makes rallies more dependent on distributed buying instead of a few whales driving aggressive flows.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Cost basis stress for whales, ETFs and accumulation wallets

Spot price in Ethereum (ETH-USD) is now trading below the key cost zones of several dominant cohorts. A dense cluster between about $1,879 and $1,898 contains roughly 1.36 million ETH in realized positions and currently acts as a pivot where short-term traders and long-term capital clash on every test. Accumulation addresses – wallets that only receive ETH and never send out – show an average cost around $2,580, which is firmly above current market levels. Spot ETF exposure is under even heavier pressure, with estimated entry levels around $3,500, leaving many regulated vehicles down approximately 40–45%. With ETH trading near $1,950, long-duration capital is deep in the red, which is why defending the $1,800–$2,000 corridor is critical to avoid sliding into a multi-quarter capitulation phase where these holders are forced to lock in losses.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Exchange flows, 220K ETH outflows and implications for sell pressure

Although the price profile is weak, on-chain flows show that Ethereum (ETH-USD) is not in a pure liquidation environment. More than 220,000 ETH have recently been withdrawn from exchanges, the largest net outflow since October, and a single large venue saw about 158,000 ETH leave in one day. Sustained net withdrawals mean fewer coins available on order books and usually signal that assets are being moved into self-custody, staking contracts or cold storage rather than being staged for immediate sale. Earlier in the cycle, when DeFi TVL started rolling over, exchange inflows picked up and outflows faded, confirming that capital was shifting into more liquid, potentially sell-ready positions. The current swing back towards strong outflows indicates the market has transitioned from forced de-leveraging into a phase where aggressive spot buyers are selectively absorbing supply at lower levels.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – DeFi TVL slide of nearly $20 billion and the structural demand problem

The weakness in Ethereum (ETH-USD) is reinforced by what is happening in DeFi. Total Value Locked across Ethereum protocols has fallen from around $75.6 billion when ETH traded near $3,232 to roughly $55–56 billion now, after printing a three-month low near $51.7 billion. That roughly $20 billion contraction shows that a meaningful slice of on-chain capital has rotated out of lending pools, DEX liquidity and yield strategies, either into stablecoins, other chains or off-chain instruments. Historically, falling TVL has been mirrored by rising exchange inflows or softening outflows, as users unwind long-term positions and seek liquidity. Even with the latest exchange withdrawals, TVL has not reclaimed the mid-$60B band, which means the fundamental utilisation of the Ethereum DeFi stack remains under pressure. Until TVL rebuilds toward and above $70B, any strong rally in Ethereum (ETH-USD) will be fighting a headwind from lower protocol activity and subdued fee generation.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Accumulation addresses absorb $2.6 billion and reach a record 27 million ETH

Despite the TVL drag, accumulation metrics for Ethereum (ETH-USD) are exceptionally strong. Addresses that only receive ETH and never send out have taken in about 1.3 million ETH over five days, worth roughly $2.6 billion at current prices, pushing their holdings to a record 27 million ETH. That represents more than a 20% increase in balance so far in 2026 while the market price has fallen by around 34.5%. Large spikes in inflows to these wallets have repeatedly preceded significant upside phases: a 380,000 ETH daily inflow in late June 2025 was followed by an almost 85% rally within a month, and a later spike in November 2025 was followed by a move of about 25%. These historical patterns do not guarantee a repeat, but they underline that aggressive spot absorption at depressed prices has often marked the early stages of major upswings in Ethereum (ETH-USD).

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – ETF flows, institutional behaviour and strategic time horizon

Spot ETFs linked to Ethereum (ETH-USD) remain under clear mark-to-market stress, with units trading far below estimated average entry levels near $3,500. Nevertheless, recent sessions have shown steady net inflows, including days with more than $50 million in fresh capital. That behaviour confirms that these vehicles are being used as strategic allocation tools rather than tactical short-term trading products. For institutions that cannot hold native ETH on-chain, ETF units provide convenient exposure, and continued buying into weakness transforms those funds into a slow but persistent source of demand under spot price. As long as ETF inflows remain positive while Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades below their cost basis, this channel acts as a structural absorber of supply from stressed holders, helping to anchor medium-term downside even if short-term volatility remains high.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Cross-asset shock, metals volatility and the ‘mini-winter’ narrative

The latest leg down in Ethereum (ETH-USD) is closely tied to cross-asset turbulence triggered by extreme moves in metals, especially gold. Late January saw trillions of dollars in gold market capitalization swing within a single session, forcing margin calls that spilled into equities, credit and crypto. In that context, even resilient digital assets sold off as portfolios were de-leveraged to meet collateral demands elsewhere. Some high-profile macro voices now describe the current phase as a crypto “mini-winter” rather than a full structural bear market, arguing that gold has probably peaked for 2026 while Bitcoin and Ethereum are on track to outperform over the next legs of the cycle. That framing positions Ethereum (ETH-USD) as an asset caught in a violent rotational clean-up between old hedges like gold and newer macro diversifiers, rather than a network facing an existential collapse of its core thesis.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – On-chain pain, 58% of addresses in loss and trapped supply overhead

With roughly 58% of Ethereum addresses now holding coins at a loss, the network is firmly in a realized-loss majority environment. In this regime, every push lower risks triggering incremental selling from participants capitulating out of underwater positions, while any sharp recovery into previously traded zones meets heavy overhead supply. Each revisit of $2,000, $2,150 or $2,440 will confront layers of holders who bought there and have been waiting for price to get back to their entry levels. That dynamic creates thick resistance bands and explains why rallies in Ethereum (ETH-USD) can stall multiple times beneath the same levels before either breaking through impulsively or rolling over if structural demand is insufficient. The psychological weight of trapped capital is a real constraint until enough supply changes hands at discounted prices to reset the holder base.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Short-term technical map: descending channel, broken support and oversold momentum

From a pure chart perspective, Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades inside a clear descending channel and has just confirmed a clean break below the $2,000 floor, turning that round number into fresh resistance. Spot is currently drifting around $1,930–$1,950 with a visible demand zone flagged around $1,800–$1,850. Momentum indicators show exhausted conditions: the RSI has slipped to roughly 28 on key timeframes, signalling an oversold state where sharp short-covering rallies are common. Any credible recovery sequence now starts with a decisive reclaim of $2,000 followed by a push through $2,150–$2,200. Above that, $2,440 is the first serious pivot that needs to be overcome to neutralise the immediate downtrend, and the broader bearish structure only weakens meaningfully once Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades convincingly above the $2,780–$2,800 band.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Support stack: $1,960, $1,880, $1,845, $1,750, $1,580 and $1,230

Key supports are layered beneath spot in tight succession. The first horizontal shelf sits near $1,960, where Ethereum (ETH-USD) has already attempted to stabilise several times. Below that, the $1,880–$1,898 region overlaps with the concentrated cost basis for around 1.36 million ETH, making it a decisive battleground where failure would push a large cohort further into loss. If that band gives way on daily closes, the market’s focus will shift to approximately $1,845 as the final major defence before a deeper reset. A break there opens scope toward $1,750–$1,760, with further high-volume zones around $1,580 and $1,230 linked to previous trading clusters and realized price distributions. Those lower levels only become central if the current effort to build a base between $1,800 and $1,900 is rejected by the market and forced selling accelerates again.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Long-tail risk scenarios and the $1,000–$750 capitulation zone

Some longer-term technical frameworks still flag the $1,000–$750 zone as a possible destination if the present structure fully breaks down. Those paths assume the move below $2,000 marks the beginning of a multi-month capitulation, with DeFi TVL stuck near the lows, ETF inflows fading and macro risk assets rolling over in tandem. Under that scenario, Ethereum (ETH-USD) would likely slice through $1,580 and $1,230 before ultimately forming a major low in the four-figure or even high triple-digit range. At this stage, on-chain behaviour does not support that extreme as the base case: accumulation addresses are at record highs, exchange balances are draining and institutions are still buying. Nonetheless, these tail levels must be recognised as part of the risk map in a market that has already demonstrated how quickly liquidity can vanish once confidence is shaken.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Money flow, CMF behaviour and why the last bounce failed

Recent money flow dynamics explain why the last rebound attempt in Ethereum (ETH-USD) collapsed. Between February 6 and 9, price bounced off local lows, but the Chaikin Money Flow remained below zero and failed to break its own descending trendline, signalling that institutional-scale capital was not backing the move. When price rises while CMF stays negative, rallies are often driven by short covering and retail flows rather than durable accumulation, and they frequently unwind violently as soon as buying pressure fades. The subsequent break of the bear flag’s lower boundary and the renewed sell-off matched this template and opened up technical room for an additional 40–50% decline if left unchecked. The small recent uptick in whale holdings, from about 113.56 million ETH to 113.62 million, is an early hint that larger players are starting to re-engage near support zones, but the size of that change is still modest relative to the earlier distribution.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Whales, defence of the $1,880–$1,900 band and their incentive structure

The incentive for whales to defend current levels is clear from their cost structure. Large holders trimmed positions as Ethereum (ETH-USD) broke down, taking aggregate holdings from roughly 113.91 million ETH to 113.56 million. The subsequent rebuild of around 60,000 ETH shows that they are beginning to lean into the $1,880–$1,900 band instead of exiting aggressively. Allowing price to decisively breach that cost block and the nearby $1,845 support would drive a large portion of their inventory further into loss and could ignite a more disorderly liquidation cycle. As long as spot remains close to their most recent accumulation zones, it is rational for whales to drip-feed bids and slow the descent, especially with ETF flows and accumulation addresses absorbing a meaningful part of the available float.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Conditions required for a durable bullish reversal

For Ethereum (ETH-USD) to transition from a tactical downtrend into a durable recovery, three conditions need to align. First, price must reclaim and hold above the $2,000–$2,150 region to invalidate the latest breakdown and signal that recent selling was a shakeout rather than the start of a new structural leg lower. Second, DeFi TVL must recover convincingly toward and through the $60–70B range, showing that users are redeploying capital into on-chain strategies instead of sitting in cash or rotating to other ecosystems. Third, capital flow indicators such as CMF must turn positive during advances, confirming that institutional-style buying is supporting rallies instead of leaving them to speculative short squeezes. A sustained move above $2,440 would be the first signal that these conditions are coming together; a later break of $2,780–$2,800 would strongly suggest that the broader uptrend in Ethereum (ETH-USD) is re-asserting itself.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Integrated stance: bearish structure, but accumulation favours Buy-on-weakness bias

Across all layers, Ethereum (ETH-USD) shows a split profile. Structurally, the chart is still bearish below $2,150, with a clear descending channel, a broken $2,000 floor, soft DeFi TVL and a holder base where 58% of addresses are in loss. At the same time, spot absorption is unusually strong: 1.3 million ETH accumulated in five days, 27 million ETH locked in accumulation wallets, 220,000 ETH withdrawn from exchanges and continuous ETF inflows despite deep unrealized drawdowns. Momentum is oversold, and cost-basis clusters offer nearby reference points for risk management. Taken together, this combination justifies a high-risk Buy-on-weakness stance rather than a clean Sell or passive neutral posture, with accumulation focused around and below the $1,900–$1,800 band and a clear technical invalidation if Ethereum (ETH-USD) loses the $1,750–$1,745 support area on a closing basis and begins to accelerate toward the $1,580 and $1,230 downside targets.

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