Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Fights to Hold $2,000 as Downtrend Targets $1,725

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – February selloff puts $2,000 back in play

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – price, range and where it actually trades now

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading in the $2,000–$2,150 zone after one of its sharpest three-day drops of this cycle. The latest leg pushed price down to roughly $2,068, which is the weakest print since May 2025 and sits immediately under the long-watched $2,100 band defined by the June 2024 lows. Intraday, Ethereum (ETH-USD) has been oscillating roughly between $2,080 and $2,287 with about $47–56 billion in 24-hour turnover, so liquidity is high but direction is clearly down. From the last cycle peak just under $5,000, ETH is now off around 60%, and 2025 closed with an approximate 21–22% loss despite Ethereum’s central role in DeFi, NFTs and L2 infrastructure. That disconnect between the ecosystem’s strength and the token’s current price is the core of the February story: structurally important asset, but trading like a high-beta risk instrument under pressure.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – record transfer counts that look more like distribution than healthy growth

On-chain transfer activity sits at an all-time high and that matters. The 14-day moving average of Ethereum transfer count is around 1.1 million, the strongest reading ever recorded. Superficially this looks like powerful growth and adoption, but the historical pattern is brutal. In January 2018, at the ICO mania peak, transfer counts spiked and ETH collapsed from around $1,400 to below $100 by the end of that year. In May 2021, at the height of DeFi and NFT euphoria, the same metric set another record and price unwound from above $4,000 to below $2,000. The common thread is simple: when transfers explode at late-cycle stages, it often means coins are being moved to sell, not to build long-term positions. The current setup rhymes with those prior peaks, and that is why the record 1.1 million transfer count is being read as a warning, not a green light.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – exchange inflows, MVRV and the stress inside holder behavior

Flows into exchanges confirm that big sellers are active. As ETH broke below $2,300 in early February, exchange inflow from the ten largest single transfers spiked to roughly 1.3 million ETH, the highest in a year. Two days later price slid from around $2,230 to below $2,100. That move is exactly what you expect when large holders push size onto centralized venues to reduce exposure. At the same time, MVRV ratios are drifting toward zones where a significant portion of the holder base is either near breakeven or sitting on losses. When MVRV bands lean negative in this way, it often precedes either a deeper flush or a long, exhausting sideways grind as weak hands reduce risk. On-chain analytics also show balances trending away from long-term wallets toward selling venues. Investors are clearly taking risk off the table here, not “buying the dip” in size.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – inverse cup-and-handle points toward $1,665–$1,725

Price structure is clean and unfriendly. Higher-time-frame charts show an inverse cup-and-handle top already confirmed, with the neckline broken decisively around $2,960. That entire $2,900–$3,000 band now acts as a heavy resistance shelf rather than a base. The measured move from this inverse cup-and-handle projects a further drop of roughly 25% from the breakdown zone, which lands a target in the $1,650–$1,700 region, with several analysts citing $1,665 or about $1,725 as realistic downside objectives into late Q1 or early Q2. Those numbers are not plucked from thin air: they sit just under the March 2025 low near $1,760 and above the April 2024 trough around $1,400, creating a logical cluster where sellers may finally exhaust. Historically, this pattern hits its projected level in more than four out of five cases, so the market is treating that $1,665–$1,725 pocket as a serious risk zone rather than a remote tail.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – lower-time-frame signals show bounces are still corrective

Short-term indicators are consistent with a downtrend that is pausing, not reversing. On the four-hour chart, MACD histogram has flipped green for the first time since late January, but the 26-period EMA still sits firmly above the 12-period EMA, which means the dominant trend remains bearish. RSI on that timeframe trades in the mid-30s, comfortably below the neutral 50 line, so even after the rebound toward $2,300 momentum remains with sellers. In plain terms, the last bounce was a correction inside a broader downleg, not the start of a new impulse higher. Until Ethereum (ETH-USD) can sustain pushes where the fast EMA crosses and holds above the slow EMA while RSI spends time above 50–60, the market will keep fading strength and selling into every rally.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – daily CMF, DMI and ADX say trend is strong and capital is leaving

The daily structure is the main problem for bulls. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) sits deeply negative, which tells you that on balance capital is still flowing out of ETH, not into it. Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows the negative line sitting above the positive one, confirming that downside moves remain more forceful than upside attempts. Average Directional Index (ADX) hovers close to 39, a level that marks a strong, well-defined trend rather than random chop. Combine those three and the message is straightforward: this is a mature, powerful downtrend with persistent outflows. Fibonacci retracement grids place price just above the zero line of the most recent impulse, effectively at a “last buffer” for short-term relief rallies. Unless buyers can reclaim roughly $2,450 with expanding volume and then punch through the $2,800–$2,820 region, a clean, durable break above the psychological $3,000 mark in February is not the base case.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – where $2,000, $1,760 and $1,400 really sit on the map

Concrete levels matter here. The first meaningful support band runs around $2,100, anchored in the June 2024 lows and recently retested as ETH slid to $2,068. That zone is fragile already. If it fails decisively, the next structural area sits around $1,760, which marks the March 2025 low and lines up with one of the main downside targets from current pattern work. Below that, the final high-time-frame support before the prior cycle range lies near $1,400, the April 2024 yearly low. A move to $1,725–$1,760 would represent roughly another 15–18% decline from current $2,100 levels; a drop to $1,400 would imply about 30–35% additional downside. These are the numbers that professional desks are working with when they talk about “room lower” on Ethereum (ETH-USD).

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – how it is trading versus Bitcoin and why it feels weaker

Relative behavior against Bitcoin explains why ETH feels heavy. When Bitcoin dropped for the third straight session and tested roughly $70,000–$71,000, Ethereum fell faster in percentage terms, hitting $2,068 and underperforming BTC during each wave of selling. Strategists tracking the pairs point out that ETH has a history of underperforming Bitcoin during drawdowns and only playing catch-up later in the cycle. In the previous year’s structure, Bitcoin bottomed near $74,000 in April 2025 before pushing to a fresh all-time high, and only after that did ETH mount a meaningful rally from the $2,800 area. Right now Ethereum is again acting like a high-beta expression of macro risk sentiment: when Bitcoin weakens, Ethereum (ETH-USD) typically drops more; when Bitcoin pauses, ETH struggles to reclaim lost ground. In this environment, as long as BTC sits under prior resistance and ETF outflows plus hawkish Fed expectations weigh on risk assets, Ethereum’s relative underperformance is unlikely to vanish.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – macro backdrop, Fed, dollar and why risk assets are under pressure

Macro conditions are adding strain. Kevin Warsh being lined up for the Fed chair role with expectations of balance-sheet reduction and a slower path to rate cuts keeps real yields elevated and the dollar bid, with DXY pushing above 97.5. The Fed holding rates around 3.50–3.75% at the January meeting and signalling “no rush” to cut means liquidity remains tight for longer. At the same time, markets are dealing with renewed tariff headlines, U.S. budget and shutdown risk and sovereign debt ratios around 100% of GDP. That mix encourages de-risking across high-beta assets, from AI-heavy tech equities to crypto. Ethereum sits squarely in that crossfire: it is liquid, easy to sell and widely held. As a result, macro players use Ethereum (ETH-USD) as part of their risk-off basket, which amplifies its correlation with downside equity swings and accelerates selling when volatility spikes.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – analysts’ downside targets and what has to change for a sustainable rebound

Technical targets across multiple desks are clustering in the same bands. One major view sees ETH drifting toward $1,725 or a touch lower as the inverse cup-and-handle objective, with the probability of tagging that zone quoted around 80% based on pattern history. Another widely cited level is $1,760 from the March 2025 low, with a deeper capitulation scenario pointing to $1,400 if that support gives way. At the same time, some high-conviction voices remain structurally optimistic: there is an argument for a potential three- to four-fold move over six months once the current de-risking finishes and a supply squeeze builds on centralized exchanges, but even those bullish calls implicitly assume that the ongoing drawdown must run its course first. For the path higher, requirements are specific, not vague. Ethereum needs to hold or quickly reclaim $2,000 on any further flush, push back above roughly $2,450 with clear volume, break out over the $2,800–$2,820 cluster and then absorb supply around $3,000. Until that sequence starts unfolding on strong breadth, every aggressive bounce remains a candidate to be sold.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – short-term pain versus long-term role in the ecosystem

The structural role of Ethereum in crypto has not changed even as the token trades lower. Many major projects still rely directly on Ethereum as base infrastructure, and institutions exploring on-chain settlement, tokenization and DeFi continue to treat it as the primary execution layer or reference standard. Over the past four years, however, Ethereum (ETH-USD) has only set two new all-time highs, in 2021 and 2025, and the 2025 peak failed to sustain a break above $5,000 despite heavy expectations. That gap between ecosystem relevance and token performance is precisely why long-term outlooks remain constructive while near-term projections stay cautious. Analysts focused on fundamentals view current prices as misaligned with Ethereum’s eventual share of on-chain activity, but the timing mismatch is severe and the market is not obliged to resolve it in February or even this quarter. Until macro conditions ease, Bitcoin stabilizes above key supports and on-chain flows turn from net selling to accumulation, fundamentals alone will not stop price from visiting lower technical levels.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – classification: how to frame it as buy, sell or hold from a risk–reward angle

Putting all of this together, Ethereum (ETH-USD) sits in a clean downtrend with credible technical risk toward roughly $1,700 and residual tail risk into the $1,400 area if support fails. On-chain indicators show stress, exchange flows reveal active selling from large holders and macro conditions still favor caution in high-beta assets. At the same time, valuations are no longer stretched, Ethereum retains central infrastructure status in crypto and there is a plausible medium-term path for a powerful recovery once this de-risking phase completes and Bitcoin stabilizes. From a pure risk–reward classification, ignoring individual circumstances, the profile fits a high-volatility “speculative buy” for long-horizon, drawdown-tolerant capital and a “hold or reduce” stance for anyone who cannot stomach a potential 20–30% leg lower before conditions improve. That is an analytical label, not personal advice; the key point is that the chart is not yet finished on the downside, but the long-term franchise value of Ethereum is strong enough that aggressive participants will keep looking to accumulate deeply oversold levels rather than chasing short squeezes near $2,300–$2,500.

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