Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Around $3,3K Targets $4K As Network Activity Surges

Ethereum Price: Structure, Flows And Risk Map Around $3,300

Macro Shock, Short Squeeze And Regulation Behind ETH-USD At $3,300–$3,350

ETH-USD is trading around the $3,296–$3,355 zone after a sharp two-day move fueled by hard catalysts, not vague sentiment. US core CPI slipped from 2.7% to 2.6%, triggering a risk-on bid across crypto. That macro surprise combined with roughly $591 million in crypto short liquidations as BTC-USD ripped to about $96,500, and ETH-USD followed with a push to roughly $3,362 before today’s pullback. At the same time the CLARITY Act moved toward markup in the US Senate, signalling real progress on dividing SEC/CFTC roles. With spot Ethereum ETFs already live and drawing capital, this kind of regulatory clarity directly lowers the structural risk premium on ETH-USD. The result is a move back above $3,250 that is anchored on inflation data, liquidations and legislation, not just retail FOMO.

BTC-USD Still In A $82,000–$96,500 Box Puts A Ceiling Above ETH-USD

ETH-USD trades inside a Bitcoin-led structure that is still clearly defined. BTC-USD has been trapped in a sideways band since mid-November, with an upper zone around $94,000–$96,000 and a lower support cluster in the $82,000–$85,000 range. The spike to $96,500 only tagged the top of that box; it did not convert resistance into support. The 200-day moving average on BTC-USD sits far higher, near $106,120, so on higher timeframes the dominant asset is still in a downtrend. That matters for ETH-USD because the ETH daily chart shows an almost identical consolidation: Tuesday’s rally from the $3,050–$3,100 region to $3,362 only retested the upper boundary of a sideways structure, while the lower side is anchored between $2,600 and $2,730. As long as BTC-USD remains capped below $106,120, ETH-USD is moving inside a market where the main benchmark is technically bearish.

Daily ETH-USD Versus 200 EMA At $3,637: Third Attempt At The Same Wall

On the daily chart, ETH-USD is grinding toward the 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA) near $3,637, which has capped every attempt to reverse the trend since November. The last two contacts with this line produced clean downside reactions: one rejection drove price from around $3,295 to roughly $2,600, and another sent ETH-USD from the low $3,200s down toward $2,780. The current climb from the $3,050–$3,100 pocket to around $3,296–$3,362 is the third test of that same dynamic resistance. As long as ETH-USD stays below $3,637, the daily structure remains a series of lower highs under the 200 EMA. The default rule for a sideways range still applies: a tag of the upper band is normally followed by a swing back toward the lower band. For ETH-USD the lower consolidation edge remains the $2,600–$2,730 zone until price actually breaks and holds above that 200 EMA.

Cup-And-Handle Breakout On 12-Hour ETH-USD Puts $4,000–$4,010 Back On The Map

On the 12-hour timeframe the message is more constructive. ETH-USD has completed and broken out from a cup-and-handle pattern with a slightly downward-sloping neckline. That downward slope is not cosmetic: it means buyers must absorb selling at a range of prices instead of punching through a flat ceiling in one spike. That is why the move from around $3,090 to about $3,362 unfolded in steps rather than a single vertical candle. Measured from the base of the “cup”, the pattern projects into the $4,000–$4,010 area, which is now back on the active technical roadmap after being off the screen for weeks. The breakout candle on January 13 came with expanding green volume, confirming that the move is driven by genuine demand rather than illiquid drift. That keeps the pattern valid as long as ETH-USD does not fall back decisively under the breakout region.

Weekly Inverted Head-And-Shoulders On ETH-USD Targets A $5,000 Cycle Band

The weekly ETH-USD chart shows a larger inverted head-and-shoulders structure that spans multiple years. Price has already moved above a major Murrey Math pivot and is advancing along the right shoulder. That pattern projects toward a broad cycle resistance area around $5,000, roughly 50% above the current $3,300–$3,350 band. The critical invalidation lies near the right-shoulder low around $2,500: if ETH-USD breaks and holds below that level, the structure collapses and the bullish weekly thesis disappears. As long as price stays above $2,500, the pattern supports the idea that ETH-USD can grind higher over this cycle even if it experiences repeated 15–25% shakeouts inside the formation.

Short-Term ETH-USD Levels: $3,250–$3,270 Support Versus $3,360–$3,380 Trigger

From a trade-execution point of view, ETH-USD is pinned between tight bands that matter. The immediate support needed to keep this breakout credible is $3,250–$3,270. Holding that shelf turns any dip into a standard retest of former resistance. A convincing daily close above $3,360–$3,380 would confirm that buyers have absorbed supply in this zone, neutralize part of the short-term momentum risk and reopen the upper targets implied by the cup-and-handle. Above that, the next resistance steps line up around $3,580, then near $3,910, and finally the $4,000–$4,010 projection band. If ETH-USD loses $3,250, the path down runs through $3,180, then $3,050, and ultimately back to the broader consolidation floor in the $2,600–$2,730 pocket.

RSI Divergence, Short-Term NUPL And How ETH-USD Can Correct First

Momentum and profit metrics are the main sources of near-term downside risk. On the 12-hour chart, ETH-USD is developing a bearish RSI divergence: price has made higher highs between roughly January 6 and January 14, while the RSI has not fully confirmed that strength. If ETH-USD stalls below the $3,360–$3,380 band and the next candle prints lower, that divergence will be confirmed and a pullback toward $3,180–$3,050 – and potentially as low as $2,730–$2,600 – becomes a realistic scenario. On-chain, short-term holder NUPL has climbed to its highest level in about two months, showing that recent buyers are sitting on increasing unrealized profits. The last local NUPL peak produced a drop in ETH-USD from around $3,295 to roughly $3,090, about 6%. That playbook is live again. The important nuance this time is that coins in the 30–60 day age band being spent have dropped by nearly 80% from recent highs. Short-term holders are more profitable, but they are not aggressively selling into this bounce yet. That combination points to volatility and shakeouts, not automatic collapse.

Network Activity: Record New Wallets, More Active Addresses And ETH-USD Under 2025 Highs

The on-chain usage backdrop supports the price recovery. Daily new Ethereum wallets have recently hit around 393,000, compared with a three-week average near 327,100, signalling an acceleration in network onboarding. Active addresses have climbed roughly 45% over 30 days to about 12.4 million, while total transactions have increased around 23% to over 55 million. ETH-USD is still more than 20% below its 2025 peak, yet Ethereum retains about 76% dominance in DeFi and around 63% in real-world asset tokenization. The Fusaka upgrade is already pushing throughput and engagement higher, and planned Glamsterdam and Hegota upgrades are designed to further improve speed and security. For ETH-USD this means the latest move from the $3,050–$3,100 area toward $3,300+ is backed by growing real usage, not just leverage or ETF narratives.

ETF And Institutional Flows: ETH-USD Joins The Sponsored Capital Trade

Flows into listed products have become a critical driver. Spot Bitcoin ETFs just recorded around $753.7 million in single-day net inflows, the strongest since October, with Fidelity’s product pulling in roughly $351 million, Bitwise capturing about $159 million and BlackRock adding around $126 million. That demand has pushed BTC-USD higher and supported the broader complex. ETH-USD now has its own spot vehicles feeding direct demand. Ethereum-focused funds have attracted about $130 million in a single 24-hour span recently, with cumulative inflows above $12.5 billion and assets under management nearing $20 billion. This is structural buying that must source physical ETH. In parallel, large institutions are positioning on the protocol level: a major bank has filed to launch an Ethereum ETF, and a large staking operator has accumulated roughly $2.5 billion in ETH, with about 1.5 million ETH staked. That combination removes liquid supply and forces more spot purchases, both supportive for ETH-USD over time.

ETH-USD Versus BTC-USD: 3.59% Ratio Gain And Classic Alt Rotation Conditions

The relative trade is quietly shifting. BTC dominance peaked near 66% in July and has been slipping, while the ETH/BTC ratio is up around 3.59% so far this year. The absolute move is modest, but it marks a clear break from the prior pattern of consistent underperformance from ETH-USD. In previous cycles, similar pauses or reversals in BTC dominance have preceded rotations into the largest altcoins, with Ethereum normally the first beneficiary. The current setup fits that pattern: BTC-USD is trapped below its $106,120 200-day line, while ETH-USD is printing constructive breakout structures, gaining ratio ground and attracting steady ETF inflows. Even if BTC-USD needs to revisit the $82,000–$85,000 or $74,000–$68,000 zones, ETH-USD can outperform on a relative basis if this rotation into large caps continues.

Macro Correlation Shifts, Total Market Cap And ETH-USD Volatility Regime

Cross-asset behavior reinforces the idea of a regime shift rather than a one-day pump. Total crypto market capitalization has climbed roughly 3.2% to about $3.3 trillion, while fear-and-greed metrics have moved back to neutral for the first time since October. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero for the first time since mid-2022, a pattern that historically preceded strong BTC-USD rallies and, by extension, higher beta in ETH-USD. Softer inflation prints, expectations for future Fed cuts and progress on the CLARITY Act all compress the macro and regulatory risk premium for ETH-USD. That does not remove trend risk: while ETH-USD trades under the $3,637 200 EMA and BTC-USD sits below the $106,120 200-day moving average, deep pullbacks remain part of the baseline volatility regime.

ETH-USD Roadmap: $2,500–$2,600 As Line In The Sand, $4,000–$5,000 As Cycle Band

Putting all the levels together gives a precise ETH-USD roadmap. The first support that must hold to keep the current breakout valid is $3,250–$3,270. Above that, the first trigger band is $3,360–$3,380; a daily close through this zone would clear nearby supply and let the cup-and-handle pattern fully play out. Targets then line up at $3,580, roughly $3,910 and the $4,000–$4,010 projection area. On the downside, losing $3,250 opens $3,180 and $3,050, with the broader consolidation floor at $2,600–$2,730 still acting as the main demand pocket. The weekly inverted head-and-shoulders setup stays valid as long as ETH-USD trades above roughly $2,500. A sustained break below $2,500–$2,600 would mean the higher-timeframe bullish structure has failed and the market is back in a full bear phase.

Final Stance On ETH-USD: Data-Driven Buy With Pullback Risk Toward $2,600–$2,730

Across structure, momentum, on-chain metrics, ETF flows and the BTC-USD backdrop, ETH-USD screens as a Buy, with clear volatility risk rather than a neutral Hold or outright Sell. The positive side is explicit: a confirmed cup-and-handle targeting $4,000–$4,010, a weekly inverted head-and-shoulders backing a cycle band around $5,000, accelerating network activity, and multi-billion-dollar ETF and staking demand that did not exist in prior cycles. The risk side is just as clear: a developing RSI divergence, elevated short-term profits and a still-bearish BTC-USD trend all argue that ETH-USD can easily retest $3,050 or even the $2,600–$2,730 support pocket before the market makes any sustained push toward $4,000–$5,000. Taken together, ETH-USD is a bullish, high-volatility Buy with a structural invalidation band around $2,500–$2,600 and a medium-term upside corridor in the $4,000–$5,000 region, assuming ETF inflows, network activity and those key supports continue to hold.

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