EUR/USD Stalls Around 1.1780 While DXY Near 97.8 Keeps Pressure on the Euro

EUR/USD – PRESSURED AROUND 1.1780 INSIDE A NARROW RANGE

EUR/USD – PRICE TRADING AROUND 1.1770–1.1780

EUR/USD is sitting around 1.1770–1.1780, after failing again near 1.1835 and retreating from the 1.2100 area hit last month. The pair is resting on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rebound off the 200-day SMA at 1.1658, which makes the 1.1775–1.1770 band a key pivot. The current box is 1.1750–1.1830. A daily close below 1.1745–1.1740 opens 1.1695 and 1.1680, while a clean break above 1.1835 targets 1.1930 and then the 1.2050–1.2100 region.

US DOLLAR INDEX – 97.80 SUPPORTIVE, 98.00 ACTING AS A CEILING

The USD side is firm. The dollar index trades near 97.80–97.90, above the 0.618 retracement at 97.61 from the 95.54 low and riding a rising trendline from late January. Price has been printing higher lows above 97.21 support, but gains keep stalling at a descending line around 98.00–98.10, drawn from the 99.79 peak. The 50-period moving average has turned higher around 97.50, while the 200-period average is pressing at roughly 97.80. That cluster backs a heavy but controlled tone in EUR/USD, not a collapse.

TARIFF RULING, NEW 15% LEVIES AND POLICY NOISE AROUND EUR/USD

The Supreme Court ruling against the use of the emergency powers act for large parts of the tariff program did not kill tariff risk. The administration is already pivoting to a 15% global tariff structure and new investigations under Section 232 and Section 301. Public messages threaten steeper levies if partners hide behind the court decision to stall deals. The European Union has again paused its trade agreement implementation. For EUR/USD, this means tariff uncertainty persists. The dollar retains a safety bid, while export and growth doubts limit EUR upside, especially on pushes beyond 1.18–1.19.

FED RATE PATH, YIELD DIFFERENTIALS AND THE USD CARRY EDGE

Policy expectations lean in favour of the USD. Markets see only a very small chance of a cut at the March meeting and roughly 50 bps of easing for 2026, not a deep cycle. The 10-year US yield sits near 4%, and the dollar index holds close to 97.8–98.0. Fed speakers tie any easing to hard data rather than pre-committing. That backdrop keeps the carry profile tilted toward the greenback. EUR/USD rallies into 1.18–1.19 face this rate gap and meet sellers rather than fresh momentum buyers.

ECB “GOOD PLACE” MESSAGE, GERMAN HICP AND A CAPPED EURO

On the EUR side, the next key data point is German HICP for February, expected near +0.5% month-on-month after a-0.1% print in January and about 2.1% year-on-year. That keeps inflation close to the 2% target. Public comments from the central bank stress that policy is “in a good place,” signalling no urgency to ease or tighten. This stance avoids a dovish shock but does not create a bullish impulse for EUR. Without a clear growth or yield surprise, EUR/USD lacks fuel to drive a sustained move above 1.19–1.20.

TECHNICAL MAP – FIBONACCI, 200-DAY SMA AND TRIANGLE STRUCTURE

The EUR/USD chart is defined by a compression triangle. A descending trendline from the 1.2050 high caps the topside; an ascending line from the mid-January lows supports the downside. Price is squeezed between 1.1750 and 1.1830. Critical levels stand out. The 1.2100 zone marks the recent major high. The 1.1930 area is the monthly peak and the first target if 1.1835 is taken out. The 1.1835 level is the current intraday ceiling. The 1.1785–1.1810 band hosts short-term moving averages that repeatedly reject spikes higher. The 1.1750 and 1.1745–1.1740 zone forms the working floor. The 1.1695 region aligns with the 78.6% retracement, and 1.1658 is the 200-day SMA that defines the bigger trend. MACD sits negative with the line below the signal around the zero axis, while RSI around 46 points to mild bearish momentum without oversold conditions. That mix supports further downside probes while the long-term structure remains intact above 1.1658.

RANGE BEHAVIOUR – HOW FLOWS ARE LIKELY POSITIONED AROUND 1.1775

Order flow around 1.1775 reflects a market trading the range aggressively. Repeated failures near 1.1810–1.1835 hint at systematic selling from accounts using this band to offload EUR/USD exposure. Any break and close through 1.1835 risks triggering stops and a fast push toward 1.1900–1.1930. On the downside, a daily close below 1.1745–1.1740 confirms a breach of both the 61.8% retracement and last week’s low, which opens 1.1695 and the 1.1680–1.1700 pocket. Beneath that, market focus turns to the 1.1658 200-day SMA. Systematic strategies and hedge adjustments tend to accelerate once these structural levels go, so a break is unlikely to be slow.

US GROWTH AT 1.4% AND WHY EUR/USD IS NOT PUSHING TO 1.20

The latest annualised growth figure at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter is the weakest since mid-2025 and a clear downside surprise. Yet EUR/USD is not trading at 1.19–1.20; it is stuck near 1.1780. The reason is the broader pattern. This softer figure follows a run of strong data, so markets treat it as a warning, not proof of a downturn. The curve still prices only about 50 bps of cuts for the year. That combination caps further dollar strength but does not force a trend reversal. For the pair, it means less room for a deep USD surge yet still no solid case for a sustained euro breakout.

GEOPOLITICS, TARIFFS AND RISK SKEW AGAINST THE EURO

Risk scenarios tilt the balance against EUR/USD. Tariffs are shifting from one legal base to another rather than disappearing. The European Union has paused its trade deal implementation again. There is also the ongoing risk of a US strike on Iran, which would hit energy and risk sentiment. These themes usually drive flows into the USD and weigh more heavily on Europe via energy costs and export exposure. That skew means negative headlines are more likely to drag the pair below 1.1750 toward 1.17 and 1.1658 than to propel it cleanly above 1.19–1.20.

VOLATILITY COMPRESSION AND BREAKOUT LEVELS IN EUR/USD

Short-term candles near 1.1780 show reduced ranges and small bodies, signalling volatility compression. Energy is building inside the 1.1750–1.1830 corridor. A close below 1.1740 would likely force hedge adjustments and fresh short interest, taking EUR/USD toward 1.1695 and 1.1680–1.1700. A sustained push above 1.1835, particularly if accompanied by a slip in the dollar index below 97.60 and a slight softening in Fed tone, would hit stop clusters and open the way to 1.1900–1.1930. Until that break, options positioning and range strategies dominate, but the longer the squeeze lasts, the sharper the eventual move tends to be.

EUR/USD STRATEGIC VIEW – BIASED LOWER, PREFERENCE TO SELL RALLIES

Taking the full picture – EUR/USD holding near 1.1780 on a 61.8% retracement, USD supported around 97.8–98.0 on the index, tariffs rotating rather than fading, US growth at 1.4% but still backed by higher yields, a steady Fed, a central bank on the euro side signalling comfort with the current stance, and a well-defined 1.1750–1.1830 triangle – the directional stance leans lower. The call is BEARISH ON EUR/USD, WITH A CLEAR PREFERENCE TO SELL RALLIES RATHER THAN BUY OR HOLD. Moves into 1.1810–1.1835 offer areas to fade strength, with focus on 1.1700 and then 1.1680–1.1695 as logical downside zones. The 1.1658 200-day SMA remains the key structural line. As long as price trades below 1.1835 and fails to reclaim 1.1930, the pair stays in a sell-rally regime, not a sustained recovery phase.

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