EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Stalls Near 1.175 as 1.18 Ceiling and 1.1660 Floor Set the 2026 Range

EUR/USD Price Outlook: 1.17 Support vs 1.18 Ceiling

EUR/USD trading zone and immediate battlefield

Spot EUR/USD is locked in a tight band around the mid-1.17s, with price rotating between roughly $1.1720 and $1.1760 and repeated failures to sustain any move near $1.1800. Quotes from different feeds place the pair around $1.1752–$1.1755, with intraday lows just above $1.1720 and earlier swings below $1.1735 and $1.1732, confirming that 1.17 is the current pivot area. Short-term order flow shows bids gathering near $1.1720 and offers layered into the $1.1760–$1.1800 region, turning EUR/USD into a range trade where $1.1720–$1.1700 acts as the front-line support while $1.1800 caps every relief rally. The broader working corridor is roughly $1.1660–$1.1845, but the real fight today is inside the $1.1720–$1.1800 box.

EUR/USD trend structure: moving averages still favor the euro

On the higher time frames, EUR/USD still trades on the bullish side of its key trend filters. Spot near $1.1750 sits virtually on top of the 20-day moving average at about $1.1753, which has flattened but not rolled over. Below that, the 50-day moving average at $1.1667 and the 200-day near $1.1660 form a strong support shelf just under current price. A rising 100-day EMA around $1.1635 adds another medium-term floor, telling you that the upswing from earlier lows is intact as long as the pair holds above $1.1635–$1.1660. Bollinger Bands reinforce that view: the mid-band sits near $1.1738, the upper band around $1.1820 and the lower band close to $1.1655. EUR/USD trading just above the middle band with narrowing bands means the December rebound is consolidating, not collapsing. The Ichimoku Kijun line near $1.1713 supports the same idea: dips into $1.1713–$1.1738 are being treated as corrections inside an uptrend, not the start of a bearish leg, unless price decisively breaks below the entire $1.1713–$1.1660 cluster.

EUR/USD momentum: bullish bias with short-term fatigue

Momentum and trend indicators for EUR/USD lean positive but no longer euphoric. On the daily chart, RSI prints in the high 50s, around 55–60, comfortably above the neutral 50 line and well short of overbought territory. Daily MACD is on a buy signal and ADX shows a healthy, not extreme, trend strength, confirming that the medium-term impulse still favors euro strength against the dollar. Shorter-horizon oscillators inject more caution: Stochastic RSI is oversold and the Commodity Channel Index sits near zero, reflecting that recent selling pressure has cooled the intraday upside without breaking the broader structure. The takeaway is simple: momentum is still tilted higher as long as EUR/USD defends the 1.1660–1.1635 region, but intraday exhaustion around $1.1760–$1.1800 is real and keeps the pair capped until fresh catalysts appear.

Key levels in EUR/USD: 1.1800 resistance vs 1.1700 and 1.1660 supports

The price geometry around EUR/USD is very clear. On the topside, $1.1800 is the primary barrier. Each approach into $1.1760–$1.1800 has produced small-bodied candles with repeated upper wicks, signaling persistent selling rather than clean breakout energy. The pair has also slipped below a rising 4-hour trendline, shifting the very short-term tone from trending to sideways. On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg higher sits just under $1.1700 and now acts as first defensive line. A sustained break through $1.1700 would expose the 50% retracement around $1.1660, which coincides with previous consolidation, the 50-day moving average near $1.1667 and the 200-day close to $1.1660. The lower Bollinger Band around $1.1655 and earlier references to $1.1665 as a downside risk area all converge in that same pocket. On the topside, the upper Bollinger Band and immediate resistance cluster around $1.1820, while one volatility map projects a typical five-day range of $1.1720–$1.1845 with an upside break above $1.1800 opening the path toward $1.1845. Right now, EUR/USD is a buy-the-dip market into $1.1720–$1.1700 with a hard structural line in the sand around $1.1660.

ECB stance and EUR fundamentals inside EUR/USD

On the euro side of EUR/USD, policy stability is supporting the currency despite weak growth data. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged at its December meeting and signaled a strictly data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach. Markets broadly expect the ECB to keep its key rate near 2.15% through much of 2026 unless euro-area growth breaks sharply lower. That refusal to pre-commit to cuts, coupled with a still-restrictive real rate backdrop, provides a modest yield cushion for the euro. However, the macro backdrop is not clean. German Manufacturing PMI languishes around 47.7, firmly in contraction. Euro-area industrial output remains under pressure and growth worries persist, which means that strong data are being faded rather than chased. Investors are comfortable owning euros on dips when EUR/USD is closer to $1.17 or $1.1660, but they are not willing to re-price the pair aggressively higher while the real economy is struggling.

Fed cuts, DXY behavior and the USD leg of EUR/USD

The dollar leg of EUR/USD is being pulled lower by policy expectations but supported by its safe-haven role. The Federal Reserve has already cut rates to a 3.50%–3.75% range after an accumulated 75 basis points of easing in 2025, and the curve now prices in roughly two more cuts during 2026. That path would narrow the spread between US and euro-area yields, shrinking the dollar’s carry advantage and, over time, favoring a higher EUR/USD. Fed futures currently assign about an 85% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the January meeting and roughly a 15% chance of a further 25-basis-point cut, signaling a pause in the very near term but not a hawkish pivot. The US Dollar Index is stabilizing near the high-90s, roughly 98.20–98.30, within an ascending short-term channel. Support around 97.75 and resistance around 98.50–99.00 frame the dollar’s range. As long as DXY trades heavy below the 99.00–99.35 region, any spike in the index is more likely to be sold into, which structurally supports EUR/USD on medium-term horizons even if intraday swings occasionally favor the greenback.

Politics, Fed leadership risk and implications for EUR/USD

A crucial overhang for the dollar, and therefore for EUR/USD, is the upcoming change at the top of the Federal Reserve. With Jerome Powell’s term expiring in May, the US administration has made clear it will install a new chair. The market expectation is a more dovish profile: a chair willing to keep rates low for longer, tolerate easier financial conditions and align more closely with the White House’s preference for cheap funding. That political overlay raises questions about Fed independence and adds asymmetric downside risk to the dollar. For EUR/USD, this means that any sustained period of calm in global risk sentiment combined with soft US data and loose-leaning Fed rhetoric would likely tilt the pair higher, pushing it through $1.1800 toward the upper segments of the recent range.

Growth, risk mood and flow dynamics in EUR/USD

Beyond central banks, EUR/USD is trading as a proxy for relative growth and global risk appetite. The euro suffers from stagnant industrial activity and uneven demand, while the US still posts sturdier growth and attracts capital flows during periods of stress. Tensions in Eastern Europe, the unresolved Russia–Ukraine conflict, and separate frictions involving the US and Venezuela keep a bid under the dollar as a safe asset. When risk sentiment sours, EUR/USD is pushed toward $1.1720, $1.1700 and potentially $1.1660 as investors unwind risk and move into dollars. When volatility drops and the market refocuses on rate spreads and forward policy, the euro rebounds and the pair gravitates back toward $1.1760–$1.1800. This push-pull is why the pair is oscillating rather than trending: euro weakness from growth concerns keeps rallies in check, while dollar weakness from the easing cycle and political risk limits downside follow-through.

Technical scenarios and positioning view on EUR/USD

Bringing the technical and macro layers together, EUR/USD is at a critical equilibrium zone. Above, $1.1760–$1.1800 is a supply band that has repeatedly rejected price, with $1.1820 and $1.1845 marking the next resistance levels if that ceiling finally breaks. Below, $1.1720 is the first line, $1.1713 the Kijun reference, $1.1700 the key Fibonacci pivot, and $1.1660–$1.1655 the core support pocket where the 50-day, 200-day and lower Bollinger Band converge. As long as the pair trades above $1.1660 and holds the 100-day EMA around $1.1635, the medium-term bias remains bullish, not neutral. For positioning, that favors a constructive stance rather than an outright bearish one: dips into $1.1720–$1.1700 and even $1.1680–$1.1660 are more attractive for accumulation than for aggressive shorting as long as the Fed is projected to cut again in 2026 and the ECB stays on hold. Under current conditions, EUR/USD is better classified as a cautious Buy/Hold with bullish bias, anchored by the 1.1660 floor and capped by the 1.1800–1.1845 resistance band until a decisive macro catalyst breaks this range.

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