GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sterling Tests 1.37 Support With 1.3869 High Back in Play

GBP/USD Price Outlook February 2026 Above 1.37 In A Tight Range

GBP/USD is holding the bulk of its January rebound after a sharp 4% surge from the monthly low. Price pushed to a multi-year high at 1.3869 on 27 January, the strongest level since September 2021, before stalling. Recent sessions show GBP/USD opening near 1.3665, printing intraday highs around 1.3707, and consolidating between 1.3690 and 1.3730. The pair is now building a new weekly and monthly range above the mid-1.36s, with buyers still in control but facing heavy supply into the 1.3860–1.3900 band.

GBP/USD Short-Term Structure After The January 4% Rally

On the short-term map, GBP/USD is climbing within an embedded rising pitchfork drawn from the January low. The last pullback from the 1.3869 spike reversed near the median line, confirming that level as active support. Before that, the initial slide off the January high extended about 1.6% and found demand at the September low-day close near 1.3345, which triggered the current 4% upswing. Even with that strength, a steeper corrective wave from earlier cycles is still visible on higher timeframes. So the pair trades in an uptrend on the near-term chart but remains inside a broader corrective environment set by prior years’ swings.

GBP/USD Moving Averages Rising Wedge And Pitchfork Levels

Daily structure is cleanly bullish in the short run. GBP/USD trades above the nine-day EMA at 1.3678 and the 50-day EMA at 1.3493, with both moving averages pointing higher and confirming trend strength. Price also sits above the 200-day moving average, after setting a prior weekly range just above that long-term line. Several desks highlight a rising wedge pattern, with the lower boundary aligned around the nine-day EMA near 1.3678 and the upper wedge line near 1.4010. At the same time, the pitchfork from the January low shows the 75% parallel capping the latest drive just below 1.39. That overlay of wedge resistance, channel ceilings and stacked EMAs under price explains why the market is pausing rather than extending aggressively.

GBP/USD Momentum Signals Show Upside Bias With Early Fatigue

The 14-day RSI around 61.75 holds above the 50 mid-line and below the 70 band, which confirms bullish momentum without a blow-off signal. Intraday RSI near the mid-50s points to a controlled grind, not an exhausted spike. One technical view stresses that the narrowing range inside the wedge reflects easing buying power even as higher lows persist. Another notes that prior oversold conditions have already been unwound and that current levels favour a continuation rather than a collapse. The conclusion from momentum is straightforward: upside bias remains, but the risk of choppy trade increases as GBP/USD pushes into resistance zones above 1.38.

GBP/USD Support Stack From 1.3678 To 1.3350

The entire short-term narrative turns on how much of the support ladder under 1.37 is tested. First support sits at the nine-day EMA near 1.3678, which also tracks the lower wedge boundary. Intraday work marks a broader near-term demand band between 1.3650 and 1.3680; holding that pocket keeps the latest setback as a simple pause. Below that area, more substantial levels start to cluster. The 1.3593 region, defined by the May and August highs, is the next key floor. Deeper support sits at 1.3542–1.3544, where the 38.2% retracement of the November advance meets the 61.8% retracement of the January range. Under that zone, the 50-day EMA at 1.3493 acts as a critical mid-trend marker. Broader bullish invalidation for the January leg higher is now set at the yearly open around 1.3474. A clean break under 1.3474 would expose the support reversal area near 1.3350 and signal that the 4% rebound is being unwound.

GBP/USD Resistance Ladder From 1.3745 To 1.4248

On the topside, GBP/USD faces a dense wall of levels that explains the stalling price action. The first major ceiling stands at 1.3745–1.3749, combining the 2025 high-day close with the 2022 high. That band also aligns with short-term EMA resistance around 1.3720–1.3740 on lower timeframes. A decisive daily close above 1.3750 would confirm that buyers have re-asserted control and open a run back into the January high zone at 1.3860–1.3869. Directly above, the 100% Fibonacci extension of the November advance between 1.3870 and 1.3900 forms a heavy profit-taking area and the top of the recent impulse leg. If price can clear 1.3900, the next focus shifts to the 1.4003–1.4010 band, where the 61.8% extension of the broader 2022 advance and the rising wedge ceiling intersect. A breakout through that 1.40 region would be a structural shift and puts the April 2018 high at 1.4248 back on the map, but for now the market is still locked inside the 1.36–1.39 corridor.

GBP/USD And The US Dollar Index Interaction Around 97.30–97.40

The USD side of the cross keeps providing a mild tailwind for GBP/USD. The DXY trades around 97.30–97.40 after rebounding from roughly 95.55, yet remains capped by a descending trendline from the January highs. The index holds just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 97.22, with the 38.2% level near 96.83 acting as a deeper support zone. The 200-EMA and the trendline cluster around 97.60–97.70, creating a heavy barrier that has repeatedly rejected attempts to extend the recovery. Short-bodied candles in that area highlight hesitation rather than strong dollar demand. RSI around 55 confirms modest positive momentum without a convincing breakout profile. Rate markets are still discounting about 1% of Fed easing in 2026 and two extra cuts, even with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed chair and some officials playing down inflation risks. That backdrop keeps the broader tone for the USD heavy and supports GBP/USD dips so long as UK-specific risks do not flare up.

GBP/USD Event Risk Focus Around BoE And US Data

Macro catalysts concentrate around the Bank of England and key US prints. The BoE Bank Rate sits at 3.75%, with this week’s meeting widely expected to leave policy unchanged. Current pricing assigns only about a 4% probability to an immediate cut, with the first reduction now pushed to April at the earliest and a total of up to four cuts projected across 2026 under a weak growth backdrop. The December cut was a narrow 5–4 decision, and Governor Andrew Bailey has already warned that further cuts will become a “closer call” as rates move toward neutral. That mix supports the pound while also capping how hawkish guidance can turn. On the US side, the ADP employment release and ISM Services data remain key volatility points for GBP/USD. Strong US numbers that push DXY through 97.80 toward 98.25 would weigh on the pair and risk a retest of supports around 1.3650 and 1.3593. Softer US data that reinforce rate-cut expectations would favour a break above 1.3745–1.3749 and keep pressure on the 1.3860–1.3900 band.

GBP/USD Bias Assessment And Trade Map Around 1.36–1.39

Combining structure, momentum and macro, GBP/USD still trades with an upward tilt, but the easy part of the move looks behind. As long as the pair holds above 1.3542–1.3544 and especially above 1.3474, the January advance remains valid and dips into the 1.3650–1.3680 pocket are more likely to attract buying than forced liquidation. A daily close above 1.3749 would confirm a fresh leg of the up-swing and keep the focus on 1.3869 and 1.3900 as the next upside checkpoints. Failure to take out that band, combined with a break below 1.3678 and then 1.3593, would signal that the market is transitioning from a simple consolidation into a deeper correction. In that case the risk map shifts back toward 1.3542–1.3544 and 1.3493, and the bullish narrative for GBP/USD in this cycle would no longer be secure if 1.3474 gives way.

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