Gold Price Firms at $3,350 as Traders Brace for CPI Volatility

Gold Price Stabilizes at $3,350 as CPI Risks and Tariff Shocks Fade

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,350.01, up $5.90 on the day (+0.18%), following a turbulent week marked by tariff confusion and shifting macro expectations. Monday's aggressive drop — triggered by market panic over possible U.S. tariffs on gold imports — was reversed after the White House clarified that gold bars will remain exempt. The clarification removed immediate downside risk and restored calm across physical and futures markets.

Spot gold rebounded from lows near $3,340, while U.S. futures hit an intraday high of $3,393.60. The trading range has since tightened between $3,331.70 and $3,357.70, with price action now preparing for the next macro catalyst.

All Eyes on CPI Data as Fed Rate Cut Bets Intensify

The upcoming July CPI report now takes center stage. With inflation running at 2.7% year-over-year, slightly under consensus, traders are rapidly pricing in monetary easing. Fed fund futures now assign a 94% probability of a rate cut by November, and growing expectations for a 25bps cut in September are already pressuring the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) below 102.80.

For gold, a weakening dollar and lower real yields historically unlock upside momentum. However, XAU/USD remains pinned within a narrow compression zone, with the 20-day EMA resistance at $3,355 and 50-day EMA support at $3,331. A clear CPI surprise — either dovish or hawkish — could provide the directional trigger.

Technical Triangle Formation Signals Imminent Volatility Expansion

Gold has formed a tight triangle pattern, marked by rising lows and capped highs since the April peak. The price remains locked between key EMAs and trendlines, compressing toward a breakout point. On the upside, a decisive move above the Supertrend resistance at $3,435 opens the path toward $3,470 and $3,500, levels that align with past breakout extensions.

Support is clearly defined at $3,331, with further downside risk if price closes below that level. Below that, next structural zones sit at the 100-day EMA at $3,247 and the psychological anchor at $3,200. Any downside break would risk flipping medium-term structure to bearish.

RSI and Momentum Oscillators Indicate Cautious Positioning

The 14-day RSI stands at 48.99, squarely in neutral territory — reflecting balance rather than trend exhaustion. MACD remains flat, confirming indecision. Traders are waiting for a directional macro push, likely from the CPI or upcoming PPI, Retail Sales, and UMich sentiment prints later this week.

A spike in RSI above 55 alongside a volume-backed move through $3,355 would confirm bullish strength. Conversely, RSI slipping under 45 with a loss of $3,331 would imply a fading uptrend and resumption of lower consolidation.

Tariff Panic Recedes as White House Clarifies Import Exemptions

Monday’s flash selloff in gold — including a near $50 drop in spot and $90 crash on COMEX futures — was triggered by fears of U.S. tariffs on imported gold. This created panic in Swiss refineries, which supply over $36 billion in annual gold exports, much of it routed into COMEX vaults for futures settlement.

After the Biden administration confirmed gold is not included in tariff rounds, speculative unwind followed swiftly. While physical flows from Switzerland briefly halted, refineries are expected to resume full operations this week, reducing physical market dislocations.

Geopolitical Shifts May Influence Next Safe-Haven Bid

Beyond macro, geopolitical events remain a wildcard. Trump's decision to extend the U.S.–China tariff truce by 90 days reduced immediate tensions. However, focus now shifts to the U.S.–Russia summit on August 15, which could significantly move safe-haven flows.

A diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine could deflate some of gold’s geopolitical premium. However, any breakdown in talks or new sanctions could have the opposite effect — reviving flight-to-safety flows and possibly driving gold above $3,400 swiftly.

Deeper Gold Support Zones Remain Intact Despite Sharp Intraday Moves

Despite recent volatility, structural support remains intact. The ascending triangle that began forming in March continues to hold, with buyers repeatedly stepping in near $3,330–$3,340. A clean break and hold above $3,355, with confirmation at $3,435, would flip momentum decisively bullish.

A break below $3,331 targets the $3,247 zone, followed by $3,200 — both of which served as consolidation floors in Q2. Traders should watch these inflection points closely as volatility builds toward the CPI print.

Buy/Sell/Hold Verdict: HOLD with Bullish Breakout Bias

Gold remains technically neutral at $3,350.01, but key catalysts are approaching fast. With tariff fears resolved and macro inflation data on deck, the directional break is imminent.

• Buy above: $3,355 (target $3,435 → $3,470 → $3,500)

• Hold inside: $3,331–$3,355 range

• Sell if breaks below: $3,331 (target $3,247 → $3,200)

Until the CPI print confirms direction, gold is a HOLD — but with a strong bullish tilt if breakout levels clear with volume.

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