Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Reclaims $5,000 After Trump 15% Tariff Shock

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast 2026: $5,000 Reclaimed As Policy Risk And Miners Reprice The Cycle

XAU/USD Reclaims $5,071.48 Spot And $5,080.90 Futures With Silver Surging To $82.92

Short-Term Tape: From $4,979 Drift To A $4,999–$5,131 Breakout Range

Spot XAU/USD closed the week back above the key psychological line, trading around $5,071.48 with April COMEX futures settling close to $5,080.90. The shift from Thursday’s stagnant print near $4,979 to Friday’s intraday band between roughly $4,999 and $5,131 shows that every dip under $5,000 still attracts firm demand. Futures volume around 128,000 contracts confirms that the move is backed by real positioning, not a thin headline spike. Silver outpaced gold materially, with spot surging about 5.8% to $82.92, a classic leverage response in the precious complex when the market decides policy risk is underpriced.

Cross-Asset Backdrop: S&P 500 At 6,909.51, Nasdaq At 22,886.07, VIX At 19.09 And Dollar Index At 97.73

The rally in XAU/USD is not emerging from a risk-off crash. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) last traded near 6,909.51, up about 0.69%, with the US 500 future close to 6,910.50, also up around 0.71%. The Dow Jones hovered near 49,625.97, gaining roughly 0.47%, and the Nasdaq finished near 22,886.07, advancing about 0.90%. Volatility remains contained with the S&P 500 VIX around 19.09, down approximately 5.64%, while the Dollar Index eased to roughly 97.73, off about 0.13%. Gold’s push through $5,000 alongside rising equities, a softening dollar and a lower VIX signals a hedge bid driven by tariff, inflation and policy uncertainty rather than outright panic.

Tariff Shock: 15% Blanket Duty Plan Under Section 122 And A 150-Day Window For Volatility

The decisive catalyst for the latest XAU/USD leg is the new tariff plan. After the Supreme Court threw out the previous trade scheme, Donald Trump moved to lift temporary tariffs on almost all U.S. imports to 15% from 10%, invoking Section 122, which caps tariffs at 15% and limits them to 150 days unless Congress authorizes an extension. That framework injects a rolling headline risk into every quarter: each attempt to renew, tweak or challenge the tariff structure can jolt yields, the dollar and risk appetite. Metals trader commentary is already clear: “He will try to re-establish tariffs using other statutes, which will promote volatility.” Gold is responding exactly as that statement implies, with spot trading above $5,070 and futures above $5,080.90 as markets price a more unstable global trade regime.

Growth Pulse: 1.4% Q4 GDP Versus 3.0% Estimate And A 43-Day Shutdown Drag

On the macro side, U.S. real GDP for Q4 printed at about 1.4% annualized, less than half the 3.0% consensus. The 43-day federal government shutdown dented consumption and public spending, dragging headline growth lower. Economists still describe the core economy as “resilient,” but the miss underlines that the expansion is now sensitive to shocks. For XAU/USD, this mix – sub-3% growth with policy uncertainty and a heavy tariff overlay – means the Fed will be cautious about tightening again while being unable to slam rates to zero. That environment tends to compress real growth expectations and lift the relative appeal of a non-yielding hedge near $5,000.

Inflation Profile: PCE At 2.9% Year-On-Year, Core PCE At 3.0% And A 0.4% Monthly Surprise

Inflation is not cooperating with the soft-landing script. The PCE price index climbed 0.4% month-on-month in December and 2.9% year-on-year. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred gauge, also rose 0.4% on the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0%, topping the 0.3% forecast. Within the basket, legal services spiked roughly 12% in January, highlighting the noise in individual components but not changing the headline message: the last mile to 2% inflation remains stubborn. Markets still discount around two quarter-point rate cuts this year, with the first likely around June, but the combination of a 3.0% core and a 1.4% GDP print forces policymakers to walk a narrow path. XAU/USD above $5,070 is precisely the market’s way of pricing the risk that that path becomes harder, not easier, as tariffs bite.

Upcoming Data Triggers: February PPI On Feb. 27 And PCE On March 13 As Gold Volatility Events

Near-term catalysts are already lined up. U.S. producer price data for January is scheduled for February 27 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and the next Personal Income and Outlays report, which carries the fresh PCE readings, is due on March 13. Both releases land inside the 150-day tariff window and will determine whether the market leans toward a June cut, a delay or renewed debate about another hold. For XAU/USD, a PPI or PCE print that confirms 0.4% month-on-month inflation as the new norm would reinforce the case for gold staying north of $5,000. A downside surprise could deliver the “one more leg down” that some desks flag, but that pullback would likely find buyers well before the market abandons its hedge.

Trading Microstructure: COMEX Pause, Sunday Gap Risk And The $5,000 Pivot

COMEX gold futures on CME trade from Sunday through Friday but pause for an hour each day, leaving prices frozen through parts of the weekend. At the moment, the market is shut, with XAU/USD trapped at around $5,071.48 spot and $5,080.90 on April futures until Sunday’s open reallocates risk to whatever headlines land between now and then. The $5,000 line has become the operational pivot: Thursday’s hesitation just under that mark at roughly $4,979 and Friday’s bounce from $4,999 show that algorithms and discretionary flows are stepping up at the round number. If Sunday’s open gaps significantly higher on fresh tariff or geopolitical news, that pivot becomes first support. A gap lower back toward $5,000 will test how much patient demand is waiting, but the previous rejection of sub-$5,000 levels suggests dip-buying remains intact.

Pattern Structure: Ascending Formation Around $5,100 With A $5,120 Breakout Trigger Toward $5,600+

From a pure pattern standpoint, XAU/USD is consolidating in an ascending structure centered around $5,100. The key trigger sits slightly above at roughly $5,120; a clean daily close over that level, backed by futures, would complete the pattern and give a technical roadmap for the next leg higher toward and beyond $5,600 in 2026. The latest move from $4,979 to $5,071.48 and then $5,131 intraday on futures fits that script: higher lows are forming against a rising support line while highs press closer to the breakout band. As long as spot holds above rising support just under $5,000, the technical bias stays positive. A sustained break below that line would shift the debate from “when do we break $5,120?” to “where does the next major demand block sit?”, but current price action does not indicate that scenario yet.

Equity Transmission: New Gold (NGD), Coeur Mining (CDE), GC Futures And The $7 Billion Consolidation Bet

The miners are translating the XAU/USD story into earnings and balance sheet leverage. Benchmark gold futures GC gained about 1.67%, and equities tied to the metal followed: Coeur Mining (CDE) rallied roughly 2.37%, and New Gold Inc. (NGD) advanced about 2.69% as the market repriced their cash flow streams at $5,000+ bullion. NGD is about to report what is likely its last full quarter as an independent name before the $7 billion acquisition by CDE closes. Street forecasts call for Q4 2025 EPS of around $0.27 on revenue near $523 million, up from $0.25 EPS and $462.5 million revenue in Q3. That revenue print would be close to double the level from the year-earlier period, driven by higher realized gold prices and stronger execution at Rainy River and New Afton.
Estimate revisions show how expectations have cooled but not collapsed. Over the last 60 days, EPS forecasts for NGD have been trimmed by about 11.36%, and revenue estimates have eased roughly 3.64%, stabilizing in the last week. The bar is lower than in mid-rally, but not low enough to tolerate a slip in operational discipline. On the last print, NGD delivered $0.25 EPS versus $0.17 consensus, a 47% positive surprise, and $462.5 million revenue, more than 11% above forecasts, with free cash flow of roughly $240 million in the quarter and $532 million for full-year 2025. Those numbers are central to the merger logic: the combined NGD–CDE platform is targeting about $3 billion of EBITDA and $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026, anchored on a gold tape that stays much closer to $5,000 than $4,000.
On valuation, Scotiabank raised its target on NGD to around $10.50 with a positive recommendation, while the stock trades closer to $11.90, implying the market has already priced a premium for the merger and the gold backdrop. Any signs that Rainy River, New Afton or the integration plan are slipping will likely be met with quick derating. Once the deal closes, insider behaviour across NGD and CDE – especially large secondary sales or stock-settled compensation exercises – will be watched as a live read on how confident management teams are that the XAU/USD regime north of $5,000 can hold.

Commodities Contrast: Copper At $12,700 With 1 Million+ Tons Of Inventories Versus Gold’s Cleaner Tightness

Copper’s recent path underscores why XAU/USD is leading the macro hedge narrative. The metal spiked above $13,000 per ton last month before sliding back toward roughly $12,700 this week. Deutsche Bank’s baseline view sees an average copper price around $12,125 per ton for 2026, with a potential peak near $13,000 in Q2 if Chinese demand rebounds after holidays. But near-term fundamentals look heavy: exchange-monitored inventories have climbed above 1 million tons for the first time since 2003, and the cash-to-three-month spread in London has shifted into contango, both classic signs of ample short-term supply.
Speculation has amplified the swings. Toward the turn of 2025–2026, speculative long positioning across copper, zinc, nickel, tin, lead and aluminium on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit record levels, heavily dominated by retail money chasing parabolic base-metal and lithium rallies. When prices stalled, long liquidation took over and drove the correction from $13,000 toward $12,700. Analyses from major houses highlight that while long-run copper demand from electrification, AI data center power, EVs and cooling remains solid, the short-term tape is vulnerable. Goldman Sachs has flagged that copper prices are likely to come under pressure later in the year as clarity on potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper emerges and the market refocuses on a global surplus.
Gold does not have the same overhang. There is no million-ton inventory wall capping XAU/USD, and the drivers are macro – tariffs, inflation, real yields, growth uncertainty – rather than warehouse balances. That is why bullion has been able to push back above $5,000 even as copper fades from $13,000 highs.

Gold (XAU/USD) Positioning Verdict: Bullish Bias, Treated As A Buy-On-Dip Above The $4,900–$5,000 Zone

All the key numbers point in one direction. Spot XAU/USD around $5,071.48, April futures near $5,080.90, a weekly range between roughly $4,999 and $5,131, silver at about $82.92, GDP growth at 1.4% instead of 3.0%, PCE at 2.9% year-on-year with core at 3.0% and 0.4% month-on-month, a fresh 15% tariff push under Section 122 for up to 150 days, the next PPI on February 27, the next PCE on March 13, copper rolling from $13,000 down to $12,700 with inventories above 1 million tons, and miners like NGD and CDE setting $3 billion EBITDA and $2 billion free-cash-flow targets for 2026 – this is not a backdrop where gold should be faded aggressively.
The structure supports a bullish stance on XAU/USD. The preferred approach is to treat pullbacks toward the $4,900–$5,000 region as opportunities rather than reasons to abandon the trade, with the ascending formation around $5,100, the $5,120 breakout trigger and the widely discussed $5,600+ path in 2026 as the key levels to track. As long as tariffs remain on the table, core PCE sticks near 3.0%, and growth hovers around 1.4% instead of reaccelerating cleanly, gold justifies a buy bias rather than sell or even neutral hold positioning.

That's TradingNEWS