Gold Price Steadies at $3,348 as Traders Eye Fed, $3,500 Resistance and Geopolitical Risks

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Holds Firm Near $3,360 as Fed, Geopolitics and Technicals Shape Market Direction

The gold market (XAU/USD) opened the week with prices swinging between $3,330 and $3,382 per ounce as traders positioned ahead of a series of events that could define the path of the precious metal through September. Spot gold traded around $3,348.30 in European hours, while December futures (GC=F) were last quoted at $3,393.80, up $11.20 on the session. That keeps bullion firmly above the $3,300 threshold but still capped by the heavy resistance zone at $3,400–$3,500.

Fed Policy Outlook and Jackson Hole in Focus

The Federal Reserve remains the single most important driver for gold in the short term. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets assigning more than an 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, down from nearly 100% last week after U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.3% YoY, well above the expected 2.5%. Hot inflation data combined with steady retail sales (+0.5% MoM) and a fragile labor market has put Jerome Powell in a difficult position ahead of his Jackson Hole Symposium speech (August 21–23). Gold thrives in lower-rate environments, and even a modest cut would reinforce its appeal as a non-yielding hedge. Traders are now waiting for Powell to hint whether the Fed intends a “one and done” adjustment or a more aggressive easing cycle.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

At the same time, geopolitics remain a pillar of support for gold. U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last Friday but failed to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine. Reports suggest Trump has demanded Kyiv give up Crimea and abandon NATO membership as conditions for peace, something President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to reject when he meets Trump and European leaders in Washington. Markets remember the February Trump-Zelenskyy White House summit that ended inconclusively, and the current round of negotiations risks another stalemate. Every delay keeps XAU/USD underpinned by safe-haven demand.

Technical Landscape: Key Levels in Play

Technically, gold remains inside a symmetrical triangle formation, compressing between the April 22 high near $3,500 and the May 15 low at $3,180. The 20-day EMA sits at $3,351, acting as a short-term magnet, while the 14-day RSI hovers in the neutral 40–60 zone. Bulls need a decisive close above $3,400 to retest the $3,500 barrier, beyond which momentum could carry the metal to $3,550–$3,600. On the downside, support levels are stacked at $3,245, $3,200, and the May low of $3,121. Analysts see any dip toward $3,285–$3,200 as a buying opportunity as long as the broader uptrend remains intact.

UBS and Wall Street Shift Long-Term Forecasts Higher

Strategists are raising their targets. UBS lifted its long-term real gold price forecast to $2,800/oz (nominal ~$3,100 by 2030), citing structurally higher mining costs and limited supply growth as producers prioritize organic expansion over large-scale M&A. Goldman Sachs has gone further, projecting $3,700 by year-end 2025, a 40% increase from January’s $2,633. The rationale is straightforward: rising central bank demand, tightening global trade relationships, and persistent geopolitical risks make gold one of the “cleanest hedges” available.

Market Positioning and ETF Flows

ETF demand remains steady. Despite minor outflows last week, gold-backed ETFs have absorbed billions since June, with funds tracking bullion logging net inflows as investors look to hedge tariff uncertainty and geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, gold’s market cap has swelled nearly 38% YoY, with prices up from $2,453 in August 2024 to over $3,380 today.

Comparisons with Silver and Other Metals

Precious metals are trading mixed. September silver futures (SI=F) climbed $0.195 to $38.165, eyeing resistance at $39.91 after a strong July. Platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,343.00, while copper retreated 0.3% to $9,750 per ton after weak Chinese industrial production data. Yet gold continues to outperform its peers as macro conditions tilt in its favor.

Short-Term Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips, Eye $3,500 Breakout

The technical setup and fundamental backdrop argue for a buy-the-dip strategy. With gold forming higher lows since November and the 50-day EMA near $3,355–$3,360 providing strong pivot support, traders are positioning for another assault on $3,500. A breakout could unlock a measured move toward $3,800, given the $300 range of consolidation.

Verdict: Bullish but Cautious

Gold remains in a confirmed uptrend supported by geopolitics, central bank demand, and expectations of Fed easing. The $3,500 level is the line in the sand—failure to clear it keeps prices consolidating, but the underlying structure favors an eventual breakout. On balance, the call is Bullish: Buy dips above $3,285 with targets at $3,500 and $3,800 in coming weeks, while placing stops under $3,200.

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