Gold Price Surges Past $3,350 Amid Jobs Report Disappointment and Trade Tensions
XAU/USD climbs 2.4% in a single session as nonfarm payrolls add only 73,000 jobs and new tariffs intensify market uncertainty, fueling a powerful safe-haven rally | That's TradingNEWS
Gold’s Volatility Erupts as XAU/USD Climbs Above $3,350
Gold’s rally accelerated into the Friday close, with spot XAU/USD surging from intraweek lows near $3,270 to settle just above $3,350 per ounce—an 2.4 percent gain driven by the fallout from a disappointing July jobs print and the implementation of fresh U.S. tariffs. The nonfarm payrolls report revealed only 73,000 new positions in July, well under the 100,000 consensus, and sharp downward revisions to May and June further rattled risk markets. Minutes after the data release, bullion leapt $40 to $3,340, then added another $10 once U.S. equities opened, as investors sought refuge from tumbling stock indices—S&P 500 –1.5 percent, Nasdaq –2.2 percent, Dow –1.2 percent.
Fed Impasse and Trade Tensions Fuel Safe‐Haven Demand
Wednesday’s FOMC decision delivered no rate cut and cautioned that further policy moves hinge on inflation dynamics and the impact of impending tariffs. President Trump’s order increasing duties on Canadian imports to 35 percent and broad 10 percent levies elsewhere crystallized fears of a trade war escalation. Fed board member Adriana Kugler’s resignation and public pressure on Chair Powell added to perceptions of policy uncertainty. Against a backdrop of dollar strength fading and markets repricing a roughly 75 percent chance of a September rate reduction, gold’s safe‐haven allure surged anew.
Technical Landscape: Resistance at $3,440 Awaits Breakout
After reclaiming the $3,300–3,320 support band that held earlier in the week, XAU/USD is carving a series of higher lows. Analysts highlight the $3,440 level as the next major barrier—penetration of which could pave the way toward July’s peak above $3,430 and potentially the all‐time highs around $3,500. Oscillators show room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge, but a sustained close above the 50‐day moving average near $3,310 is a prerequisite for resuming the uptrend.
Mining Stocks Shine Amid the Rally: AU and ARMN in Focus
J.P. Morgan’s elevation of AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) to its top EMEA mining pick underscores the sector’s strength. Forecasting Q2 production of 734,000 ounces—up 2 percent from Q1—at an all‐in sustaining cost of $1,743/oz, the bank has lifted its December 2026 price target to $63, citing robust free cash-flow projections of $575 million and a potential $1.15 dividend per share. Meanwhile, Aris Mining (NYSE: ARMN) has matched second‐quarter output estimates with 58,700 ounces and reaffirmed key feasibility studies ahead of its Soto Norte and Toroparu updates. BMO Capital’s C$13 target reflects confidence in ARMN’s operational momentum and streamlined asset base following the sale of noncore holdings.
Analysts Weigh Bullish Drivers and Consolidation Risks
Veteran strategist Adrian Day argues that the stark payroll miss amplifies Fed easing expectations, reinforcing gold’s bullish case. Currency expert Chris Vecchio highlights how elevated U.S. tariffs will suppress dollar flows and channel capital toward precious metals. Conversely, veteran technician David Morrison warns that gold must consolidate gains around $3,350 before staging a decisive breakout toward $3,440–3,500, lest profit‐taking trigger a retracement to $3,280–3,300.
Institutional Flows and On‐Chain Parallels
Although distinct from crypto markets, gold has mirrored digital‐asset dynamics of rapidly shifting flows. ETF outflows in digital assets sparked safe‐haven rotations into bullion, while central‐bank purchases continued, with emerging‐market reserves up 15 percent year-to-date. The divergence between physical demand—ETF holdings at five-year highs—and shorter‐term speculative positions lends credence to a sustained base-building phase in the $3,280–3,350 range.
Long-Term Conviction: A Buy and Hold Proposition
Gold’s confluence of macro angst, central‐bank ambiguity, and supply‐side constraints—mining output growth has averaged just 1–2 percent annually—supports a strategic accumulation strategy. Tariff‐driven uncertainties and softer employment figures will likely keep rate-cut expectations elevated, creating fertile ground for gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge. With critical support near $3,280 and resistance absorbing residual sellers at $3,440, the risk-reward skews favor protracted upside.
My stance for XAU/USD is bullish: accumulate on dips toward $3,300–3,320 with a medium-term objective of $3,500. Engage selectively in high-quality mining equities such as AU and ARMN, which combine leverage to rising bullion with disciplined cost structures and catalyst-rich development pipelines.
