NASDAQ:EYE Stock Price Forecast: Turnaround Gains Push Toward $40 Target

NASDAQ:EYE Strong Turnaround Lifts Investor Confidence

National Vision Holdings (NASDAQ:EYE) has transformed from a struggling discount retailer to a high-momentum growth story in 2025, with shares doubling from $12 in April to $25 today and analysts setting targets as high as $40. The company, known for America’s Best and Eyeglass World, has delivered back-to-back quarterly earnings beats, raising full-year guidance while expanding margins and capturing higher-value customers. Its real-time chart shows the stock firmly in recovery mode, driven by accelerating sales and an improved product mix.

Revenue Growth and Earnings Momentum at NASDAQ:EYE

In the latest quarter, NASDAQ:EYE reported revenue of $486.4 million, a 7.7% year-over-year increase, fueled by 5.9% comparable store sales growth, the tenth consecutive positive comp quarter. America’s Best posted a 6.3% comp increase, while Eyeglass World delivered 2.8%, its strongest half-year since 2021. Adjusted EBIT jumped 69.1% year-over-year to $23.8 million, with operating margins expanding by 180 basis points to 4.9%. Earnings per share came in 38% above consensus, marking the eighth beat in two years, proving the turnaround strategy is not just working but accelerating.

Managed Care Strategy Driving Structural Improvements

A key growth driver for NASDAQ:EYE is the shift toward managed care customers, who now represent roughly 42.5% of revenue compared to 35% in 2023. These insured customers generate larger ticket sizes and more frequent transactions, with early data showing double-digit growth from this segment. Management aims to push managed care penetration toward 50% in coming years. This structural shift boosts both revenue stability and margin expansion, allowing the company to reduce reliance on deep discounting. The trend toward managed care also insulates the business from lower-income consumer weakness, giving it resilience during economic uncertainty.

Premium Frame Sales and AI Eyewear as Growth Catalysts

The brand refresh at America’s Best is showing tangible results, with higher-income customers—particularly in the $75,000 to $100,000 bracket—becoming a larger share of sales. Average ticket prices rose 6.6% year-over-year, supported by a growing mix of premium frames priced above $99. By the end of 2025, management expects 40% of frames to be in this tier, up from 20% in 2024. Designer brands such as L.A.M.B., Ted Baker, and upcoming lines from Jimmy Choo and Hugo Boss are resonating with insured customers, while AI-powered eyewear like Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses and Nuance audio frames priced at $1,200 are creating entirely new revenue streams. EssilorLuxottica has already sold more than 2 million AI glasses and plans for 10 million annually by 2026, and National Vision’s role in distributing these products positions it at the frontier of smart eyewear adoption.

Valuation Metrics Show NASDAQ:EYE Still Undervalued

Despite doubling in 2025, NASDAQ:EYE trades at lower multiples than peers. Its EV/EBITDA ratio is 25 versus 105 for Warby Parker and 20 for EssilorLuxottica. Price-to-sales stands at 1.04 versus 4.06 for Warby Parker and 4.61 for EssilorLuxottica, while price-to-book is 2.31 compared to Warby’s 9.12. Analysts’ current one-year price target averages $29, implying 16% upside, with bullish scenarios pointing to $40 based on earnings momentum. If the stock re-rated to peer multiples, valuation could climb as high as $96 per share, though that would require consistent margin expansion and product innovation.

Operational Shifts, Store Strategy, and Partnerships

National Vision operates over 1,300 stores and is pursuing a disciplined expansion strategy with a net increase of 12 stores planned for 2025. The end of its decades-long partnership with Walmart in 2024 removed 231 locations from its footprint, but management has countered this with investments in other formats, including Vista Optical inside Fred Meyer stores. Store-level productivity is improving, and the rollout of a new CRM platform with Adobe will shift marketing from mass campaigns to one-to-one targeting, improving retention and average spend. The brand refresh campaign “Every Eye Deserves Better” is aimed at younger and more affluent consumers, with early results already visible in rising managed care and premium frame sales.

Risks from Tariffs and Consumer Spending Trends

Tariffs remain a tangible headwind for NASDAQ:EYE, with sourcing shifts away from China helping offset some of the 2024 disruptions. Still, tariffs could cut into margins if escalations occur. A macroeconomic downturn also poses risks, as value-conscious consumers might delay eyewear purchases or opt for cheaper frames, pressuring profitability. However, the pivot toward higher-income customers and insured segments acts as a buffer, reducing the impact of discretionary spending downturns.

Future Outlook for NASDAQ:EYE

Consensus EPS for 2026 is $0.83, but if the company continues to outperform with quarterly beats, earnings could reach $0.97, supporting a $40 share price at current multiples. Longer-term, Street estimates point to FY28 EPS of $1.24, which translates to $32 per share even without multiple expansion. With its brand modernization, product innovation, and structural pivot toward managed care, NASDAQ:EYE has positioned itself for sustainable growth.

NASDAQ:EYE Technical Price Action

The real-time chart for NASDAQ:EYE reflects a stock that has surged more than 100% in 2025, moving from lows of $12 in April to its current range around $25. This sharp rebound has created a constructive technical setup, with the stock now consolidating gains and building a base for the next leg higher. The 50-day moving average is trending upward at $22.70, while the 200-day moving average sits near $18.40, signaling a strong bullish crossover that confirms the longer-term reversal of trend. The golden cross formed earlier in June remains intact, giving momentum traders confidence in sustained upside.

Relative Strength Index and Momentum Indicators

The RSI for NASDAQ:EYE is currently reading around 64, indicating bullish momentum without tipping into overbought territory above 70. This suggests that the stock still has room to run before facing significant technical exhaustion. The MACD histogram remains positive with widening bars, confirming that upward momentum continues to build. The accumulation/distribution line has climbed steadily in recent months, showing that institutions are buying into this turnaround story, which aligns with insider sentiment seen in transaction filings.

Support and Resistance Levels for NASDAQ:EYE

Key technical support sits near $23, a level that has been tested multiple times in recent weeks, coinciding with the rising 50-day moving average. A stronger support zone lies at $20.50, which lines up with previous consolidation during the early summer rally. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $27.80, the high from July, with a breakout above this level opening the path to $30. Beyond that, if momentum continues and earnings momentum accelerates, the stock could test $34–$35, levels not seen since early 2022. A move through those levels would validate analysts’ more aggressive price targets near $40.

Volume Trends and Institutional Flows

Trading volume has expanded during earnings weeks, with spikes in daily turnover showing clear institutional participation. Average daily volume has risen to nearly 3.5 million shares compared to 2 million earlier in the year, underlining how investor confidence is building. Volume confirmation on up-days outweighs sell-offs, a hallmark of healthy accumulation. This liquidity backdrop provides further support to the idea that the recent rally is built on strong hands rather than speculative trading alone.

Technical Verdict on NASDAQ:EYE

From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:EYE is in the middle of a powerful turnaround cycle with strong moving average alignment, healthy RSI levels, and defined support zones that limit downside risk. If the stock can sustain above $23 and break resistance at $27.80 with volume, the next target range will be $30–$35, with a long-term ceiling near $40 aligning with its fundamental turnaround story. The risk profile remains skewed positively, with downside contained to the $20.50 support unless broader macro weakness or tariff shocks trigger a larger pullback.

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