Oil Prices Forecast - Oil Hold Key Levels as WTI Tracks $63 and Brent $68 Amid New Geopolitical Shock

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Price structure after the latest geopolitical shift

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Where benchmarks actually trade and what the tape says

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Dollar, sentiment and why crude still closed the week green

Front-month WTI CL=F is trading around $63–64 a barrel, with the quoted WTI print at $63.55, up about $0.26 on the day, roughly +0.4%. Brent BZ=F sits near $68.05, up $0.50 or about +0.7%. Gasoline RBOB is closer to $1.95 per gallon, up about +1.4%, while Louisiana Light has pushed above $65 with a one-day move near +4.8%. Those moves tell you risk appetite in crude and products is still there: refined margins are firming, and the complex is trading more like a market that wants to re-price risk higher, not collapse into a deflationary spiral, even after a volatile week. On top of that, U.S. consumer sentiment just printed a fresh six-month high, which directly supports gasoline and diesel demand rather than the recession narrative that would justify sub-$60 WTI.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Iran, Strait of Hormuz and the embedded war premium

Price is carrying a visible risk premium tied to the Iran file. Tehran is refusing to abandon uranium enrichment, and talks in Oman look stalled. That leaves a credible path where U.S. military action targets Iran’s energy infrastructure or shipping. Iran pumps roughly 3.3 million barrels per day, and around 20% of global seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. A single credible strike or disruption there does not mean $5,000-per-ton groundnut oil; it means $10–$20 per barrel of geopolitical premium in CL=F and BZ=F almost overnight. Trump has already signaled that U.S. ships in the region are ready to act “with speed and violence, if necessary.” The market is not ignoring that: volatility spikes on every headline, and dips below $63 in WTI keep getting bought because traders know the downside is capped by a very binary military risk that cannot be hedged away.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Trump’s India oil deal and why Urals barrels still matter for pricing

India imports about 85% of the crude it burns, and roughly a third of that flow has been coming from Russia. Before the Ukraine war, Russian volumes into India were negligible, under 100,000 barrels per day in 2021. By mid-2022, that had exploded to around 930,000 barrels per day, and by July 2023 Russian flows peaked near 1.97 million barrels per day. Even after sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last November, India was still taking about 1.06 million barrels per day of Russian crude this January, with December deliveries around 1.2 million barrels per day. Trump is now trying to redirect that stream: Washington offers to cut tariffs on Indian exports from 25% to 18% if New Delhi formally stops buying Russian crude and replaces it with U.S. barrels. The problem is grade and cost. Russia sells Urals, a heavier, sulfur-rich blend that Indian refineries are tuned to run. U.S. exports are dominated by light, condensate-like crude. To match yields, India must blend U.S. barrels with other grades, adding complexity and cost. On top of that, shipping from the Gulf Coast to India is slower and more expensive, and analysts peg the extra cost at roughly $7 per barrel versus Russian supply. That number alone is enough to erode margins for Indian refiners and explains why New Delhi is publicly celebrating lower tariffs but not loudly promising to turn off the Russian tap tomorrow.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Russia’s discount war and China’s ‘teapot’ bid as the new floor

As India edges away under U.S. pressure, Moscow is pivoting harder into China. ESPO crude loaded out of Kozmino is now offered at discounts of up to $9 per barrel versus Brent BZ=F, a wider cut than in recent months. Urals barrels that used to move to India trade at about a $12 discount to Brent. Those are aggressive concessions designed to keep Russian output moving. Chinese independent “teapot” refineries in Shandong are taking full advantage, soaking up displaced Russian barrels while state-owned majors have stepped back from sanctioned trades. January saw Chinese imports of Russian crude hitting record territory, around 1.7 million barrels per day, underpinned by an off-book tanker fleet dedicated to sanctioned flows. The risk is capacity. Teapots do not have infinite room to absorb more crude. If India meaningfully cuts purchases and big Chinese refineries do not step back in, logistics tighten fast: more Russian barrels end up in floating storage, time spreads in BZ=F and CL=F weaken, and the prompt premium that supported prices starts to compress.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Venezuela’s comeback and how new barrels cap the upside

On the supply side, Venezuela is back on the board. Exports have climbed from roughly 498,000 barrels per day in December to around 800,000 barrels per day in January after Washington loosened the screws and European and Asian refiners re-engaged. Those are still modest volumes compared to pre-sanctions history, but in a market where the IEA’s latest projection for the 2026 surplus is only about 3.7 million barrels per day—trimmed from 3.815 million barrels per day—the incremental 300,000 barrels per day matters. Heavy Venezuelan crude is a direct competitor to Russian Urals in complex refineries. When both are offered at a discount, refiners gain negotiating leverage, and that structurally caps how far CL=F can run before demand destruction and substitution kick in.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – IEA/EIA balances and the 2026 supply-demand picture

The IEA now sees the 2026 global crude surplus at around 3.7 million barrels per day rather than 3.815 million. That is not a tight market, but it is tighter than last month’s blueprint and leans away from the surplus shock scenario. On the U.S. side, the EIA has raised its 2026 production estimate to roughly 13.59 million barrels per day, up from 13.53 million, confirming that shale growth is not dead; it is just slower and more disciplined. At the same time, the EIA has trimmed its 2026 U.S. energy consumption forecast to about 95.37 quadrillion BTU from 95.68, signaling efficiency gains and a plateauing of domestic demand. Netting those numbers, the medium-term story is not “glut” but “manageable surplus”: supply can cover base-case demand comfortably, but it does not fully absorb a large disruption in Iran, Russia, or the U.S. Gulf without a price shock.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Iran–U.S. negotiation path and why volatility is sticky

Beyond the headline risk of a strike, the negotiation track itself is moving prices. When the market believes Iran and the U.S. are drifting toward a deal, the war premium leaks out of BZ=F and CL=F, and you see days like the latest session where crude gives back early gains once headlines imply “prolonged negotiations” rather than a quick escalation. When reports surface that Iran refuses to curb enrichment or that U.S. naval posture hardens, the front end immediately lifts. That tug of war is now a structural volatility driver: short gamma and covered call strategies in crude face real headline risk, while outright shorts are vulnerable to a single missile headline adding $5–$8 a barrel in hours.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Refined products, RBOB gasoline and the demand signal from crack spreads

Gasoline RBOB futures around $1.95 with a +1.38% daily gain show that demand expectations are firm. Cracks—the spread between refined products and crude—remain constructive, especially as U.S. consumer sentiment hits that six-month high. March RBOB gained about 2.66 cents on the day, while March WTI CL=F rose 26 cents. That relative outperformance from products signals refiners still see margin opportunity and are willing to bid for barrels. If RBOB were collapsing while crude held, you would worry about a speculative crude bid. Here, the strength is broad-based: light products and Louisiana Light both trade higher, reinforcing the idea that the complex is not pricing imminent demand collapse.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Cross-commodity signals from palm oil and MENA edible oils

On the food-oil side, Malaysian palm oil futures have just broken a four-week winning streak, retracing as traders wait for fresh MPOB data and the Kuala Lumpur POC conference. Technical support sits near 4,169 ringgit per ton. At the same time, MENA’s groundnut oil market is a reminder of how soft-commodity pricing behaves when supply is adequate but not excessive: volumes are around 71,000 tons today, forecast to reach 76,000 tons by 2035, with market value growing from roughly $133 million to $150 million—a 1.1% annual value CAGR. Import prices average about $2,566 per ton, while export prices sit near $987 per ton, reflecting a quality gap between refined and crude flows. That structure—moderate growth, clear price segmentation, and no explosive deficit—is closer to the IEA’s view of crude than to the 2022 energy shock. It supports the thesis that CL=F and BZ=F are in a risk-premium range trade, not in the early stages of a super-spike absent a major supply shock.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – How Russia’s pricing to China feeds back into global benchmarks

Russia’s decision to offer ESPO at a $9 discount and Urals at about $12 below Brent is effectively a subsidy to Asian refiners. Those discounts create an anchor beneath which BZ=F struggles to fall: as long as refiners can secure heavily discounted Russian barrels, they are willing to pay somewhat more for alternative grades when needed, keeping a floor under broader benchmarks. At the same time, that discount pool makes it harder for Brent to break sustainably above the high-$70s or low-$80s without a real disruption. If BZ=F pushes too far ahead of Russian barrels, refiners arbitrage back toward discounts, and marginal demand for Brent and WTI softens. The more India is forced to exit Russian barrels and the more China is forced to absorb them, the more fragile that balance becomes. If teapots hit capacity and large Chinese NOCs stay cautious, you get a backlog of discounted crude and renewed pressure on global benchmarks.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Scenario map: upside and downside triggers from here

On the upside, the cleanest trigger is a hard break in the Iran track: failed talks plus a kinetic event that threatens Hormuz or Iranian export infrastructure would reprice CL=F toward the low-$70s and BZ=F toward the mid-$70s or higher quickly. A second upside driver is a surprise in demand—either stronger-than-expected U.S. and Asian growth or a rebound in European industrial activity—that pulls stocks down faster than the IEA’s current surplus path and steepens the curve. On the downside, a full India–U.S. execution of the crude switch with minimal disruption, combined with higher Venezuelan exports and soft demand, could push CL=F into the high-$50s and BZ=F toward the low-$60s, especially if Chinese teapots can keep lifting Russian barrels at scale. Another bearish scenario is a durable de-escalation in the Middle East that takes the war premium out of the front end and frees up shipping routes enough to compress freight and differentials.

Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) – Risk-reward stance: Buy, Sell or Hold at ~$63–64 WTI and ~$68 Brent

At current levels—WTI CL=F around $63–64 and Brent BZ=F near $68—the market is pricing a modest surplus, visible geopolitical risk, and a still-resilient demand base. Upside shocks (Iran, shipping, Russia–Ukraine stalemate, tighter sanctions enforcement, teapot capacity constraints) are larger and faster than downside shocks that come from policy deals and incremental supply additions. The IEA’s 3.7 million-barrel-per-day 2026 surplus and the EIA’s 13.59 million-barrel-per-day U.S. output projection argue against a runaway bull market, but they do not justify panic selling at these prices when Russian crude is already trading at $9–$12 discounts and Venezuelan heavy is still normalizing. On that balance, the stance on crude benchmarks is Buy with volatility rather than Sell or flat Hold: accumulate CL=F and BZ=F exposure on dips into the high-$50s to low-$60s for WTI and low-$60s for Brent, with clear risk controls around an Iran de-escalation or a clean, fully executed India–U.S. crude switch that materially lifts U.S. exports without offsetting disruptions elsewhere.

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