Oil Price Forecast - Oil Holds Firm: WTI Around $65, Brent $71 While Geopolitics Reload the Risk Premium

Oil Price (CL=F, BZ=F) – Range Near Highs With Embedded Risk Premium

Spot Levels And Immediate Trading Range For WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F

West Texas Intermediate WTI (CL=F) is sitting in the mid-$60s, orbiting around $65.27 after a daily move of about -0.36 (-0.55%), while Brent (BZ=F) trades close to $70.61, down only $0.16 (-0.23%), after testing an intraday high near $71.90. The structure is a tight band: WTI is finding short-term support around $65–65.50, resistance into $67–67.20, and Brent is holding between roughly $70–72. Price is not behaving like a panic spike; it’s a controlled consolidation near the upper part of the recent range, with dips quickly absorbed as long as the tape holds above $65 on CL=F and $70 on BZ=F.

Russia–Iran Discount War For China And Floating Storage Overhang

Sanctioned supply from Russia and Iran is being dumped into Asia at increasingly aggressive discounts, which is structurally bearish for flat price but bullish for refinery margins and trade flows. Russian Urals barrels are now quoted around $12 per barrel below ICE Brent, compared with $10 just a month earlier, while Iranian Light crude is being offered at $11 below Brent, vs $8–9 discounts back in December. This is a direct price war for marginal Chinese demand. China’s independent “teapot” refiners – roughly 25% of the country’s refining capacity and constrained by import quotas – are the main buyers willing to touch heavily sanctioned grades, while state-owned giants avoid new Russian contracts and increasingly shun Iranian barrels. The result is a crude logjam offshore: around 48 million barrels of Iranian oil are floating in storage, mainly in the Yellow Sea and Singapore Strait, and Russian barrels on ships have climbed to roughly 143 million barrels, nearly double last year, including about 9.5 million barrels effectively parked unsold in Asian waters. That floating inventory acts as a hidden buffer capping upside, even while visible prompt balances look tighter.

WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F – Freight, VLCC Rates And Effective Tightness

Unlocked barrels are colliding with a very different constraint: shipping. Freight on Middle East–to–China VLCC routes has blown past $170,000 per day, as charterers rush to secure tonnage ahead of further geopolitical noise and rising war-risk premiums. Elevated VLCC daily earnings mean that marginal flows from the Gulf, Russia and other exporters are more expensive to move, which effectively widens differentials between nearby and distant buyers. This pushes some refiners toward cheaper, closer supply while discouraging long arbitrage plays. For WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), that translates into a rebuilt risk premium in the front of the curve: traders are unwilling to be aggressively short the prompt while tanker rates and insurance costs can spike again on any new headline. The physical system is not short of barrels on paper, but the cost of moving them – particularly through risky corridors – keeps the prompt structure supported.

Hormuz Jamming Risk And Geopolitical Premium Around CL=F And BZ=F

The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical chokepoint underpinning the geopolitical layer in CL=F and BZ=F pricing. Reports of electronic jamming tied to Iranian Revolutionary Guard activity have not yet translated into visible export losses, but the probability distribution of outcomes has shifted. Any disruption in a corridor that handles a significant share of seaborne crude and refined products immediately forces risk managers to re-price tail risk across the complex. Markets are no longer in full risk-off panic mode; however, even modest friction in Hormuz is enough to keep a structural premium embedded in WTI and Brent, especially when spare capacity outside OPEC+ is limited and alternative routes are costly. Short positions in front-month CL=F and BZ=F are more fragile in this environment, because a single incident affecting shipping can unwind weeks of gradual downside in a few sessions.

Sanctioned Supply, China Demand And The “Hidden” Spare Capacity Layer

Russia and Iran are effectively weaponizing price at the margin to preserve market share after India cut back Russian spot purchases due to sanctions risk and Venezuelan exports moved into more mainstream channels. Russian flows to China have pushed to around 2.09 million barrels per day in the first part of February, up roughly 20% from the January average near 1.72 million bpd, while Iranian exports to China are down about 12% year-over-year. That re-routing swells floating storage and soaks up tanker capacity, but it also shows that the world has more “latent” barrels than headline OPEC+ cuts might suggest. For WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), this means the upside path is constrained by the ability of these discounted flows to cap refining margins and keep physical differentials under pressure, even as benchmarks trade with a geopolitical premium. The market is tight on logistics and clean, low-risk barrels, not strictly short of total crude molecules.

Macro Drivers, Inventories And Tariff-Linked Inflation Pulse

From the macro angle, the interplay between energy and inflation is back on desks. A $10 sustained move higher in oil can add roughly 0.2 percentage point to annual U.S. inflation, according to some sell-side estimates, which matters in a cycle where central banks are still calibrating rate cuts. Brent’s move up to the $70–72 band and WTI (CL=F) around $65–67 is driven far more by geopolitics and freight than explosive demand. Positioning is sensitive to the upcoming U.S. inventory prints: consensus looks for around a +1.3 million barrel build in crude stocks in the latest weekly data. A larger-than-expected build near U.S. hubs would undermine some of the recent strength in CL=F, while a surprise draw could validate the idea that logistical and geopolitical frictions are tightening effective supply faster than headline demand suggests. At the margin, tariffs and broader U.S.–Iran noise feed into this inflation narrative, reinforcing the reluctance to aggressively fade oil strength while policy paths remain uncertain.

Technical Setup For WTI CL=F – Supports, Resistance And Momentum

Technically, WTI (CL=F) is in a high-range consolidation, not a breakdown. Price has stalled just below the $67.20 resistance zone, with intraday pivots clustered around $66.30 and immediate support near $65.75. Deeper structural support sits around $65.19, which aligns broadly with recent lows and the lower edge of the current Renko and range structure. The sequence of higher lows has not been invalidated, and sellers have not yet forced a decisive close below the mid-$65 area, which keeps the short-term trend biased to the upside. Momentum indicators have cooled from prior impulsive readings: the ECRO profile has shifted from expansion into a more balanced state, meaning the market is no longer in a runaway rally but also not distributing aggressively. This is typically a positioning phase where CL=F oscillates in a narrow band, waiting for a fresh catalyst – Hormuz headlines, Russia pipeline hits, inventory surprises, or freight spikes – to break the balance.

Brent BZ=F – Seven-Month High Test, Talks With Iran And Curve Behaviour

For Brent (BZ=F), the recent push toward $71.90 tested levels not seen since late July, before sellers capped the move and pulled contracts back toward the $70.50–71.00 region. The front of the BZ=F curve is supported by a mix of risk premium and freight pressure, while the complex digests the next U.S.–Iran negotiation round scheduled in Geneva. Traders are effectively paying for optionality: if talks deteriorate or are accompanied by fresh escalation around Gulf assets, the prompt can grind higher again toward the mid-$70s; if Geneva delivers de-escalation and weekly U.S. data confirm stock builds, part of the premium can bleed out, dragging BZ=F back toward the high-$60s. Time spreads reflect this uncertainty: the curve is firm enough to confirm tightness in clean barrels and logistic risk, but not in a blow-off backwardation that would signal imminent shortage.

Directional View On Oil – WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F Bias And Key Levels (Buy/Sell/Hold)

Given WTI (CL=F) anchored around $65–66, Brent (BZ=F) orbiting $70–71, Hormuz jamming risk, surging VLCC rates above $170,000/day, and the Russia–Iran discount war pushing hidden spare barrels into floating storage, the tape points to a cautiously bullish stance – effectively a Buy bias with defined risk rather than an outright chase. For CL=F, the attractive tactical accumulation zone sits in the $63–65 band, with a clear invalidation if daily closes start holding below roughly $62, which would signal that geopolitical and freight premium is being unwound faster than expected. On the upside, a sustained break above $67.20 opens room toward $70, with further extension possible if Hormuz or Russian pipeline disruptions materialize. For BZ=F, support in the $69–70 region and resistance into $72–73 define the current battlefield; dips into the high-$60s favour adding exposure, while repeated failures above $72–73 without fresh disruption argue for partial profit-taking, not a full reversal. Overall, with risk premia rebuilt, logistics stressed, and sanctioned barrels trapped at sea, the present configuration favours Buy over Sell, with tight risk management and close attention to Hormuz incidents, Russian export logistics, and U.S. inventory surprises.

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