Pfizer Stock Price Forecast - PFE Stock at $27: Is a 6% Dividend Enough to Re-Rate PFE?

Pfizer Stock (NYSE:PFE) – Deep value in a 6% yielder that the market still prices for trouble

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – Where the stock trades and what Q4 2025 really showed

Pfizer Stock (NYSE:PFE) trades around $27.40–$27.50, close to a 52-week high near $27.94 and well above the $20.92 low printed earlier in the cycle. At roughly $156B in market cap, the equity carries a dividend yield of about 6.3–6.4% and a trailing P/E a little above 20 on reported earnings, while the Non-GAAP multiple sits closer to 8–9x based on normalized EPS. The market is still pricing the name as a structurally challenged asset despite clear signs that the core operations have stabilised.

Q4 2025 numbers confirm that picture. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.66, nine cents ahead of consensus, on revenue of $17.6B. Top line fell only 1.1% year over year in the quarter, and full-year 2025 revenue of $62.6B was down about 2% versus 2024. The headline decline is entirely driven by the expected step-down in COVID revenue; the “rest of the business” is already back in growth mode. Operationally, the non-COVID portfolio grew 6% for the year and 9% in Q4, a clear acceleration into the end of 2025.

The reported net loss of roughly $1.65B in Q4 is a pure accounting story: non-cash impairments on intangible assets from the Seagen and Metsera acquisitions. EBITDA, which reflects cash performance of the operating engine, actually rose to about $5.98B in the quarter, nearly 30% growth versus the prior year. Cash-flow generation remains intact even while the income statement absorbs acquisition-related adjustments.

On the balance sheet, Pfizer holds around $15B in cash and short-term investments. Total equity is near $93B, with a price-to-book ratio of roughly 1.7x. Free-cash-flow yield is in the 7% area, even after heavy one-off payments in recent years, including the BioNTech profit split and repatriation taxes. A final TCJA-related tax payment of about $2.6B is scheduled in 2026. CapEx is guided slightly above $3B, modest relative to revenue and sufficient to support pipeline and manufacturing without compromising shareholder distributions.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – Cost-cutting, margin repair and why the savings matter

Pfizer is in the middle of a large productivity program targeting $7.2B in net cost savings. Management’s target for 2026 alone is $5.7B of net savings, and the early impact is already visible in gross margin.

Cost of sales dropped from 32.3% of revenue in Q4 2024 to 28.9% in Q4 2025. On a $17.6B quarterly revenue base, that four-percentage-point improvement is worth roughly $700M in annualised gross-profit uplift. Combined with operating-expense discipline, the savings program becomes the key tool to absorb the coming loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) shock and the reset of COVID revenue.

Valuation shows the market is still ignoring this. On Non-GAAP numbers, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) trades at about 8.4x earnings, with a forward multiple near 9.3x. That compares with roughly 16x for large-cap pharma and around 18–19x for healthcare overall. The equity is priced as if the LOE and COVID drag will fully overwhelm any margin repair or pipeline execution. If management continues to deliver visible cost-of-sales and opex improvements, that assumption breaks and the multiple has room to move higher without the business needing heroic growth.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – The non-COVID engine is already delivering mid-single-digit growth

The most important operational fact is simple: the company outside COVID is not shrinking.

For full-year 2025, non-COVID revenue grew 6% on an operational basis. In Q4 2025, operational growth in that core portfolio accelerated to 9%. At the same time, Comirnaty and Paxlovid revenues are trending toward a combined steady-state of roughly $5B by 2026, a fraction of pandemic peaks and largely de-rated by the equity market.

Within that non-COVID engine, several pieces matter for the medium-term story.

Abrysvo, the RSV vaccine, delivered 136% revenue growth and added about $270M of incremental sales as U.S. market share increased and launches outside the U.S. ramped. Late-quarter softness from lower vaccination rates in older adults is a timing issue; the long-term role of Abrysvo in the respiratory franchise is structurally important.

Pfizer CentreOne, the contract development and manufacturing business, posted 17% growth for the year, reaching $1.34B in revenue. It remains small at group level, but it shows Pfizer can monetise under-utilised manufacturing capacity and build a recurring, capital-efficient third-party revenue line on top of its own pipeline.

Cardiovascular and specialty products – especially Eliquis and the Vyndaqel family – continue to grow ahead of the group average. Eliquis revenue increased around 8% in 2025, driven by strong global demand and a favourable net price effect as the Medicare Part D redesign eliminated the coverage gap and reshaped discount dynamics. Vyndaqel remains a key top-line contributor, though management has flagged patent protection loss at the end of 2028, which is one of the reasons they are aggressively expanding the pipeline now.

Oncology has been reset around the Seagen portfolio. Padcev, one of the key assets acquired, grew about 15% in 2025 as it gained share in first-line locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer. Pfizer sees a path to roughly $10B of revenue by 2030 from four main Seagen-related oncology products, which would more than offset several individual LOE events if executed properly.

The combined message: the “core Pfizer” portfolio – respiratory, oncology, cardiovascular, specialty and contract manufacturing – is already growing mid-single digits with pockets of double-digit growth. COVID is now a normalised, smaller line item rather than the central driver.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – Obesity pipeline and Seagen/Metsera are the real re-rating catalysts

The bear argument is concentrated on the revenue hole. Management expects the LOE impact to be about $1.5B in 2026, more than $3B in 2027 and more than $6B in 2028, with cumulative annual revenue loss from key drugs like Eliquis, Ibrance and Vyndaqel reaching around $17B by 2030. At the same time, the COVID franchise is sliding toward that ~$5B annual steady-state.

To justify a higher multiple, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) must show that its acquisitions – Seagen, Metsera, Biohaven – plus the internal pipeline can at least replace and ideally exceed that lost revenue. Two levers dominate: obesity and oncology.

On obesity, management frames the total addressable market as high as $150B by the mid-2030s. That sits at the top end of external estimates – some major banks see $120B by 2033, others around $150B by 2035 – but even mid-range outcomes leave huge room for multiple players to coexist.

Metsera’s ultra-long-acting GLP-1 assets are the core of Pfizer’s attempt to enter this space. Phase 2b data for a once-monthly GLP-1 injection showed placebo-adjusted weight loss of roughly 10–12.3% over 28 weeks in obese or overweight adults without type 2 diabetes. Those numbers may not beat the headline weight-loss percentages from current market leaders, but the monthly dosing schedule is strategically powerful: fewer injections with comparable efficacy and acceptable tolerability would be attractive for a large segment of patients and payers.

The company plans or is running ten pivotal obesity trials in 2026, aiming for first approvals in 2028. As those studies mature and safety, discontinuation rates and long-term weight trajectories become clear, the market will have to refine its view on how much share Pfizer can realistically capture. At today’s stock price, the implicit assumption is “not much”.

Oncology via Seagen is the second structural driver. Management’s target of about $10B in revenue from four key acquired oncology products by 2030 is ambitious but not unrealistic given current trajectories in urothelial cancer and related indications. If they deliver anywhere near that, and the obesity franchise scales even modestly, the LOE drag becomes manageable rather than fatal.

Right now, valuation suggests the market gives little credit to either lever. The equity trades at sub-10x forward earnings with a 6%+ yield, a profile more consistent with a melting-ice-cube business than with a company that has a real shot at meaningful obesity and oncology revenue five to eight years out.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – Pricing pressure, regulation and how much is already in the price

Regulatory and pricing risk is not theoretical. The Inflation Reduction Act, Medicare Part D redesign and discount frameworks like TrumpRx are pressuring the economics of many legacy products. Pfizer was first in line to strike discount agreements under the new system, which raises mandatory manufacturer contributions and compresses net prices in some categories.

The company faces a combination of:

A rising LOE wave: revenue hit of about $1.5B in 2026, more than $3B in 2027, more than $6B in 2028 and around $17B by 2030 from key drugs losing exclusivity.

A structurally tougher U.S. pricing backdrop, especially for widely prescribed cardiovascular and specialty drugs caught in IRA negotiations and Part D redesign.

The response has three layers.

First, the cost-saving program. The $7.2B net savings target, with $5.7B planned for 2026, is not just a slide on an investor-day deck. The drop in cost of sales from 32.3% to 28.9% of revenue shows real execution. If those savings continue to come through the P&L, they will directly offset some of the pricing and LOE headwinds.

Second, portfolio mix. Growth is being pushed into oncology, complex specialty indications and contract manufacturing, where pricing dynamics are less exposed to simple generic erosion and where clinical differentiation can protect margins longer.

Third, capital allocation. Despite all of these pressures, Pfizer Stock (NYSE:PFE) still distributes a dividend yield north of 6%, funds an R&D and capex pipeline, and absorbs large acquisition and tax payments. That mix would not be sustainable if the underlying cash engine was structurally broken.

The question is not whether there are risks; they are obvious and well described. The question is whether they are over-discounted. Current valuation suggests the market is treating the combination of LOE and pricing reform as a permanent cap on growth without giving full credit to cost savings and pipeline optionality.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – Insider, capital return and why you get paid to wait

At around $27.5, Pfizer Stock (NYSE:PFE) yields about 6.3–6.4%. That compares with a healthcare sector median yield of roughly 1.4% and a broader S&P 500 yield below 2%. Free-cash-flow yield near 7% covers that payout and leaves room for debt service and selective investment, even after the extraordinary tax and acquisition outflows of the last few years.

The balance sheet has about $15B in cash and short-term investments and a substantial equity cushion around $93B. At a price-to-book multiple of roughly 1.7x, investors are not paying a premium for those tangible and intangible assets.

To judge management’s conviction, insider activity is relevant. Concentrated open-market insider buying at or near current prices would reinforce the argument that the market is mispricing the equity. That information is best tracked through the dedicated pages:
Stock profile and fundamentals: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/PFE/stock_profile
Insider transactions detail: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/PFE/stock_profile/insider_transactions

With a 6%+ cash yield and a valuation near 10-year lows on earnings multiples, the stock allows investors to get paid while waiting for obesity, oncology and cost-saving catalysts to show up in the numbers. The key risk is time: the market may not reward the story until Phase 3 obesity data is mature and LOE damage is clearly contained.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – Technical structure points to a controlled recovery, not a dead-cat bounce

The price action over the last year supports the fundamental view that maximum pessimism is likely behind the stock. After bottoming in early 2025 around the low-20s, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has built a base with repeated higher lows as buyers stepped in on pullbacks. Selling pressure no longer drives fresh lows; instead, dips have been absorbed and reversed.

The recent break above the October 2025 high around $27.5 is technically important. Trading now in the $27.20–$27.50 band, with a 52-week high at $27.94, the stock is pushing through an area that acted as resistance multiple times. A sustained move and close above that zone would open room toward the psychological $30 level before the next likely consolidation range.

Overlay that with valuation: a forward P/E around 9.3x versus roughly 16x for peers and 18.5x for healthcare. This is not what a euphoric, crowded long looks like. It is what a cautious re-rating from depressed levels looks like when the tape starts to align with a fundamental improvement that the market has not fully priced.

Pfizer Stock (NYSE:PFE) – Verdict: high-yield value with real execution risk, but skewed upside

The data set is clear.

Revenue in 2025 was $62.6B, down 2% overall, but the non-COVID portfolio grew 6% and accelerated to 9% operational growth in Q4. Q4 Non-GAAP EPS was $0.66 on $17.6B revenue, with EBITDA at $5.98B and cost of sales falling more than four points year over year. COVID products are drifting toward a stable ~$5B annual contribution.

The LOE wave will remove roughly $1.5B in revenue in 2026, more than $3B in 2027 and more than $6B in 2028, summing to about $17B in annual lost sales by 2030. The U.S. pricing environment under the IRA and related reforms adds structural margin pressure. Against that, Pfizer is targeting $7.2B in net cost savings, has already compressed cost of sales from 32.3% to 28.9%, and is shifting mix toward oncology, specialty and contract manufacturing.

Obesity via Metsera and oncology via Seagen are the main upside levers. Management talks about a $150B obesity TAM by the mid-2030s, has once-monthly GLP-1 data showing 10–12.3% weight loss at 28 weeks, and plans ten pivotal obesity studies in 2026 with first approvals targeted for 2028. The Seagen franchise aims for roughly $10B in oncology revenue from four key products by 2030.

All of that is being valued at a Non-GAAP P/E around 8.4x and a forward multiple near 9.3x, with a 6%+ dividend and a 7% FCF yield. Technically, the stock has turned from a down-trend into a controlled recovery and is challenging prior resistance.

Taking all of this together, Pfizer Stock (NYSE:PFE) is not priced as a company with clear growth visibility; it is priced as if the LOE and pricing headwinds will permanently cap the business. That gap between pessimistic expectations and realistic medium-term outcomes is where the opportunity sits.

On that basis, the stance is straightforward: at current levels, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is a Buy, with the understanding that the re-rating trigger will be proof of execution on obesity, oncology and cost savings rather than incremental COVID headlines.

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