Ripple XRP Price Analysis – Testing $3.08 Support After $3.66 Rally

XRP-USD at the Crossroads — From $3.66 Highs to $3.08 Pullbacks Amid Inflation Jitters, Technical Pressure, and Whale Movements

Institutional Momentum Meets Macro Headwinds

Ripple’s XRP-USD spent July printing some of its most aggressive highs in years, topping out at $3.66 — a level not seen in nearly seven years — before entering a corrective phase. The move came after the landmark U.S. court ruling that Ripple’s token sales did not constitute unregistered securities offerings, removing a major regulatory overhang and opening the door for fresh institutional demand. In the weeks that followed, payment processors, cross-border remittance companies, and fintech platforms — particularly in Asia and Latin America — expanded integration with RippleNet, pushing transaction volumes higher and lifting on-chain utility. Yet, August’s macro backdrop has turned less forgiving.

The latest U.S. Producer Price Index reading came in at +0.9% MoM and +3.3% YoY — far above the expected +0.2% and +2.5% respectively — driving the U.S. dollar higher and compressing demand for high-beta assets. As bitcoin dropped from its $124,517 all-time high to the $118,000 zone, XRP followed, losing the $3.30 handle and testing support at $3.08. In the past 24 hours alone, XRP traded a $3.20–$3.32 range before slipping, with a $9.64B daily volume underpinning the volatility.

Technical Structure — Key Battle Zones for XRP-USD

Short-term price action has been defined by an ascending triangle on the 4-hour chart between $3.15 and $3.30, repeatedly failing to clear $3.32 resistance. On the daily, the trend remains neutral-to-bullish: higher lows are forming off the $3.01 bounce, yet fading volume suggests bulls are losing conviction ahead of major resistance at $3.40. The most critical support sits at $3.00 — a break here exposes $2.92 (50-day EMA), then $2.69 (100-day EMA), and $2.42 (200-day EMA).

Momentum indicators echo the mixed setup. RSI is at 57.6 — midline equilibrium — while Stochastics at 74.8 suggest mildly overbought conditions. MACD has been flashing a sell signal since July 24, with histogram bars in negative territory, implying that upside momentum is stalling. The Average Directional Index at 30.6 confirms a trend of moderate strength but without a decisive directional bias. In plain terms: XRP needs a high-volume breakout over $3.32 to confirm continuation toward $3.40–$3.45; otherwise, the risk remains tilted toward $3.00 retests.

Derivatives and Liquidations — Why $62M Washed Out Longs

The CoinGlass liquidation data underscores how fragile long positioning became in the wake of the PPI print: $62M was wiped in the past 24 hours, with $57M of that in long positions. This imbalance raises the probability of a short squeeze if $3.00 holds and dip-buying kicks in, but it also exposes the market to accelerated downside if that floor breaks. In the derivatives market, open interest has shifted toward cautious positioning, reflecting traders hedging against further macro volatility.

Whale Activity and Alleged On-Ledger Manipulation

A significant development shaking confidence among some market participants has been allegations of XRP Ledger wash trading by validator “Grapedrop.” The operator flagged repeated, high-volume transfers — such as 3,018,977.72 XRP, 460,119 XRP, and 146,757 XRP — between exchange-controlled wallets (Binance, Bitget, etc.), occurring multiple times per hour. While not definitive proof of price manipulation, the pattern aligns with strategies designed to inflate reported volume and distort volume-weighted average pricing. For a token with a $193.4B market cap, sustained artificial volume could mislead both algorithmic and discretionary traders into overestimating organic demand.

Forecast Scenarios — $4, $12.73, or a Crash?

Market forecasters are split. Veteran trader Tony Severino sees XRP in its final wave of this cycle’s price discovery, projecting a possible spike to $12.73 within 40 days — potentially peaking in early September — before a sharp reversal. He likens the setup to the 2017 parabolic rise from under $0.01 to over $3 in nine weeks. EGRAG offers two more conservative but still dramatic paths: a rally to $27 followed by a 97% crash to $0.80, or a $9 peak followed by an 85% drawdown to $1.30. Both warn of the cyclical nature of XRP’s history — euphoric tops often transition to prolonged bear phases.

CasiTrades focuses on immediate technicals, highlighting the golden retracement pocket around $3.11 as the make-or-break zone. The recent bounce above $3.21 — now flipped to support — positions XRP for an assault on $3.66, with a successful breach opening the way to $4.60–$4.80. This aligns with the broader market sentiment on Myriad Markets, where 68% of traders bet XRP will hit $4 before it touches $2.

Institutional Adoption, Real-World Usage, and Altcoin Season Risk-On

Despite the near-term choppiness, institutional interest is accelerating. Banks and fintech companies are integrating the XRP Ledger for faster, cheaper cross-border settlements, particularly in corridors underserved by SWIFT. This adoption narrative is crucial — rising transaction volumes mean the current growth is not purely speculative. If bitcoin and ethereum stabilize, XRP could be a leading indicator for a potential Q4 “altcoin season,” with liquidity rotating from BTC/ETH into large-cap alts.

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