Ripple Faces ETF Inflow Speculation Amid Delays
XRP-USD has lingered near $2.20 for much of the past week, trading around $2.17 as of this morning. Standard Chartered’s digital asset team recently projected that a U.S. spot XRP ETF could attract up to $8.3 billion in inflows during its first year, supporting a long-term target of $8 by the end of 2026. That estimate relies on historic NAV-to-market-cap ratios of 3 percent for Ethereum and 6 percent for Bitcoin in approved spot ETFs, applied to XRP’s current $140 billion capitalization. Yet Bitfinex analysts warn that retail and institutional appetite for an XRP ETF may pale compared to Bitcoin’s, since investors can already access a range of crypto ETPs and may prefer broader baskets or other altcoins.
Technical Crossroads: Resistance at $2.30, Support at $2.10
From a chart perspective, XRP’s attempt to break above $2.30 has faltered three times this month, each rejection coinciding with a spike in exchange outflows as traders move coins off-exchange in anticipation of delays or regulatory news. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram has turned negative, slipping to –0.02, while the Relative Strength Index has drifted from 62 down to 54, signaling waning bullish momentum. Should XRP close convincingly below the $2.10 zone—which aligns with its 50-day simple moving average and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its January–March rally—it could retest the $1.85 area, where 15 million addresses hold 1.2 billion tokens at break-even. Conversely, a clean break above $2.30, backed by a rebound in both RSI toward 70 and renewed MACD signal line crossover, would open a path to $2.50 and, in an extended rally, toward $3.00.
On-Chain Dynamics: Whale Accumulation vs. Retail Rotation
IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money metric highlights that roughly 2.3 billion XRP were acquired between $1.90 and $2.20, placing holders in profit territory as prices hover near $2.17. That concentration at or above cost encourages some profit-taking if price strays above $2.40. Yet Lookonchain reports three “whale” wallets collectively scooped up 5 362 XRP at an average of $2.09 in the past 24 hours, signaling conviction among large accounts. At the same time, retail traders appear to be rotating profits into emerging altcoin ETFs—especially after Litecoin’s application was accepted by the SEC, heightening concerns that XRP may fall behind if its ETF is further delayed.
ETF Approval Odds and Timeline Uncertainty
Data from Polymarket assigns a 39 percent probability to XRP ETF approval by July 31 and 79 percent by December 31, reflecting growing confidence after the SEC nodded to ProShares’ leveraged futures XRP ETF. Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton have active spot ETF applications, but each faces staggered deadlines—Bitwise’s file triggered a 240-day review on February 18, making an October 12 decision the final deadline. As regulatory focus shifts toward altcoins like Solana and Litecoin next, XRP may wait in line, further prolonging retail suspense.
Macro Tailwinds and Headwinds: Crypto Sentiment in Flux
Broader crypto markets have benefited from diminishing Bitcoin exchange balances, now at seven-year lows, hinting at decreased sell-side pressure. Ethereum inflows into spot ETFs this week reached $63 million, buoying altcoin confidence. Yet rising U.S. Treasury yields, now at 4.25 percent on the 10-year, and renewed tariff tensions between the U.S. and China pose a headwind for risk assets, including XRP. Meanwhile, stablecoin issuance continues apace, with USDC hitting $37 billion in market cap, underscoring stablecoins’ appeal over native tokens for cross-border liquidity needs.
Insider Activity and Network Health
XRP’s on-chain health shows average daily active addresses climbing 12 percent month-on-month to 220 000, a sign of renewed engagement. Meanwhile, Ripple Labs insiders have not executed any significant sales in the past quarter, per recent filings on their insider transactions page. That restraint suggests confidence from early backers, especially as Ripple pursues appeals in its long-running SEC lawsuit, which reached a favorable ruling in July 2023 but remains under partial appeal.
Sentiment and Momentum: Weighing Bullish Bias Against Delay Fatigue
Social sentiment trackers show the balance of bullish to bearish mentions on XRP across crypto forums at 1.8 to 1, down from 2.5 to 1 in March, indicating slight fatigue after months of ETF speculation. On Deribit, open interest in XRP options has climbed to $230 million, with calls exceeding puts by a ratio of 1.2 to 1—an uptick in bullish positioning, though nowhere near Bitcoin’s 2 to 1 skew. That modest call dominance, coupled with rising implied volatility (now at 68 percent from 54 percent a month ago), points to growing uncertainty around XRP’s next major catalyst.
Can XRP break above $2.30 and reclaim momentum, or will regulatory timelines and macro headwinds push it back toward $1.85? The balance of ETF speculation, on-chain whale behavior, and technical signals suggests today’s entry near $2.17 offers a calculated risk–reward for traders willing to weather the approval gauntlet.
