Robinhood Stock Price Forecast: HOOD at $115 After 200% Rally Faces Valuation Stress

NASDAQ:HOOD Price And Position After A 200% Rally

NASDAQ:HOOD trades around $115.24 with a daily range of $110.41–$115.69 and a market cap close to $103–105 billion. The stock has climbed roughly 200% over the last year and about 1,360% over three years, moving from a 52-week low of $29.66 to a high of $153.86. The current price still sits more than 25% above the 200-day moving average, which signals an extended, momentum-driven move rather than a calm re-rating. Valuation is stretched: the price-to-sales multiple near 25.5x is more than double the historical average around 11.2x since IPO. To revert to that long-term P/S baseline without further revenue growth, the stock would need to drop on the order of 50–55 percent. At this level the market is clearly paying in advance for aggressive future growth and sustained hyper-activity on the platform.

Fundamentals And Growth Profile Of NASDAQ:HOOD

The latest reported quarter shows that the rally is not built on narrative alone. Revenue in Q3 2025 was about $1.3 billion, doubling year over year, while net income reached roughly $556 million, up more than 270 percent. Assets under custody climbed to roughly $333 billion, an increase of around 119 percent, driven by both market appreciation and strong net new deposits. Funded customer accounts reached about 26.8 million, growing roughly 10 percent year over year. More important than headline users, fee-paying Gold customers surged 77 percent to about 3.9 million, adding a recurring revenue layer that stabilizes the model. Gross margin sits near 90 percent and adjusted EBITDA hit roughly $742 million, implying mid–50s percent adjusted EBITDA margins that grew by more than 2x versus the prior year. Stock-based compensation has dropped to about 6 percent of revenue from roughly 12 percent, and management is signaling a roughly flat share count into year-end, which limits dilution at a time when the stock trades at triple-digit billions of market cap.

Revenue Engines For NASDAQ:HOOD Transaction Versus Net Interest

Revenue is dominated by transaction-based income and net interest revenue, both powerful and both cyclical. Transaction revenue in Q3 was above $700 million and grew well over 100 percent year over year, with options and crypto the highest-margin components. Crypto transaction revenue alone was about $268 million, up roughly 300–339 percent and accounting for more than one-third of transaction income. Options activity also expanded sharply with higher contract counts and attractive spreads. This mix makes NASDAQ:HOOD extremely sensitive to speculative cycles; the same crypto line that delivers 300 percent growth has a history of collapsing more than 50 percent in six months and dropping roughly 75 percent year on year after prior booms. Net interest revenue, about 36 percent of total, comes from margin loans and yield on idle cash balances and sweep accounts. November data showed cash sweep balances up more than 20 percent year over year and net deposits up 30 percent to about $7.1 billion for the month, giving Robinhood a larger base to monetize. However, a Fed easing cycle in 2026 would compress spreads. To keep net interest income growing, the company must offset lower rates with higher customer balances and more products tied to yield.

Trading Activity Trends Supporting NASDAQ:HOOD At $115

The sustainability of the stock’s move depends on whether volumes hold up after a hyper-active 2025. November data show that equity notional trading volume reached about $202 billion, up roughly 37 percent year over year after a Q3 period in which equity volumes jumped around 126 percent. Options volumes grew in the mid–20s percent range year over year in November, following roughly high–30s percent growth in Q3, confirming that derivatives trading remains robust. Crypto notional volumes, even including Bitstamp, were down about 19 percent year over year, but that weakness is against an exceptionally strong prior-year period following Trump’s re-election and hopes for deregulation. It signals normalization rather than collapse. The December month-to-date snapshot reported about $170 billion in equity notional volume, around 179 million options contracts, roughly $19 billion in crypto notional, and approximately 2.6 billion event contracts traded in prediction markets. These figures are preliminary and unaudited, but they confirm that trading activity remains elevated into year-end, not collapsing despite the share price pullback from the $150s to the low $110s.

Bitstamp Deal And Prediction Markets Inside NASDAQ:HOOD

The Bitstamp acquisition and the build-out of prediction markets are presented as structural growth drivers for NASDAQ:HOOD, but their current economic weight is different from the narrative weight. The Bitstamp purchase, at about $200 million, effectively doubled Robinhood’s crypto volumes and expanded its global footprint in digital assets. This improves competitiveness versus pure-play crypto exchanges and deepens engagement for crypto-focused users. At the same time, it increases exposure to a volatile, regulatory-sensitive sector with a proven history of violent cycles. Prediction markets, built in partnership with Kalshi, now offer event contracts on sports, elections, macro releases, and cultural events. Management has indicated that contracts have doubled each quarter since launch, reaching about 2.3 billion contracts in Q3 and roughly 2.5 billion in October alone, meaning one month exceeded the entire prior quarter. Despite this growth, annualized prediction-market revenue was only about $115 million against an estimated $4.5 billion of total revenue, roughly 2.5 percent of the top line. These verticals are valuable for engagement and optionality, but they are not yet big enough to justify the entire valuation narrative on their own.

Retirement IRAs Gold Subscriptions And Ecosystem Lock-In For NASDAQ:HOOD

The most structurally important shift is the expansion from pure trading into a broader financial ecosystem centered on retirement, cash management, and premium services. Retirement assets under custody reached about $24.2 billion, approximately 2.5x higher than a year earlier, supported by an aggressive 3 percent match for Gold subscribers on IRA contributions. This is effectively a subsidized acquisition cost to capture long-duration assets that are less flighty than speculative trading funds. Gold members, now about 3.9 million, pay around $50 per year and receive higher cash yields, IRA perks, better margin terms, and access to premium features such as early access to new products and richer analytics. On top of this, Robinhood has launched a 3 percent cash-back credit card and is rolling out futures trading in the U.K., while adding social features like Robinhood Social to increase network effects. With trailing twelve-month revenue near $4.2–4.5 billion, the platform is still small compared with legacy financial giants. If revenue compounds at even 20–25 percent annually over the next decade and margins stay high, a path toward roughly $30–40 billion in revenue is possible. The stock is already discounting a large part of that scenario, so execution has to remain aggressive and precise.

Market Share Position And Brand Dynamics Of NASDAQ:HOOD

Despite a market cap over $100 billion and addition to the S&P 500, NASDAQ:HOOD still holds only a modest share of the markets it targets. Management estimates about 1 percent share of equities and crypto volume and approximately 7 percent share in options based on trailing twelve-month data, roughly double the shares seen a year ago. The low starting base is the structural upside: there is plenty of room to gain from traditional brokers and specialized crypto platforms while capturing new cohorts of young traders. Brand recognition is high after the meme-stock era and the 2025 surge, and the S&P 500 inclusion forces passive index funds to maintain positions as long as the company stays in the benchmark. Public endorsements highlighting the quality of Robinhood’s IRA product and technology reinforce its perception as a next-generation platform for retail trading and personal finance.

Valuation Framework And Multiples For NASDAQ:HOOD

At around $115 per share, with revenue growth near 75 percent and adjusted EBITDA more than doubling, NASDAQ:HOOD clearly deserves a growth multiple, but the current premium is heavy. Using a market cap of about $103 billion and net cash of roughly $4.3 billion, enterprise value is just under $99 billion. Street expectations for 2026 revenue sit around $5.6 billion, implying roughly 23 percent top-line growth from an estimated $4.5 billion in 2025. Assuming the company sustains an adjusted EBITDA margin near 56 percent, 2026 adjusted EBITDA would be about $3.1–3.2 billion. That yields an EV to forward adjusted EBITDA multiple in the low 30s, around 31–32x. On a P/S basis, the current 25.5x compares to an historical average near 11.2x; to get back to that historical multiple purely through growth, revenue needs to more than double while the stock price stays flat. The more realistic path is a blend of slower growth and multiple compression, which caps medium-term upside unless results stay exceptional.