Solana Price Forecast: Can SOL-USD Hold $70 And Bounce Back Toward $100?

Solana (SOL-USD) – Compressed At $80–$90 After A 56% Drawdown

SOL-USD – Where Price Stands Now Versus The Last Cycle Peak

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading around the mid-$80s to $87 zone after one of the sharpest resets among the large layer-1 names. Over the last year, price is down roughly 56% from the highs near $253–255, with a 52-week range between about $67.5 and $253.6 and a year-to-date loss of ~31%. Market cap is still close to $49–50 billion, so this is not a micro-cap rebound story; it is a large network repriced lower by a full risk-off phase.
Recent sessions show tight intraday ranges: opens around $86.7, intraday highs near $87.5, and very low realized volatility compared with the prior crash phase. That calm is deceptive because it sits on top of massively depressed volume – roughly 10 million SOL traded versus an average near 365 million – signaling exhaustion, disinterest, or both. The market has pushed Solana well below its 50-day moving average around $123.9 and even further under the 200-day moving average in the mid-$160s, formally anchoring the chart in a long-term downtrend even as price tries to base just above the recent lows.

On-Chain Pain – MVRV, Underwater Holders And What 21.9% Profitability Really Means

On-chain metrics confirm how brutal this reset has been. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dropped to a ~2.5-year low, showing that market value sits well below aggregate cost basis. That means the typical wallet is holding SOL at a loss.
Profitability data quantifies that pain: only about 21.9% of addresses are in profit, leaving roughly 78.1% of holders underwater. Historically, readings this depressed have aligned with late-stage bear phases rather than fresh selloffs. When fewer than a quarter of wallets are profitable, marginal sellers are mostly capitulated; those left are either forced sellers or long-term holders willing to ride volatility. In past cycles, similar profitability zones coincided with major bottoms followed by strong rebounds.
The message is simple: structurally, Solana is in the “maximum discomfort” pocket – where long-duration capital quietly accumulates and weak hands tend to be flushed out. That doesn’t guarantee an immediate bounce, but it significantly reduces incremental supply on every dip because most wallets would need to lock in sizable realized losses to exit here.

Trend, Channels And Momentum – Bearish Structure, But Downside Momentum Is Slowing

Technically, SOL-USD still trades inside a clear bearish trend despite intermittent bounces. Price has been moving in a descending channel, recently pressing toward the lower boundary around the $85–$90 band, with a well-defined pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
Short-term tactical models point to $89.35 as the key resistance and $76.25 as the next notable support. As long as $89.35 caps any rebound, the intraday bias remains bearish, with the chart “obliged” to retest the lower part of the recent range.
Momentum indicators show a trend that is still down, but losing speed. The RSI sits near 52, neutral rather than washed-out, while ADX around 27 signals a reasonably strong trend still in place. The MACD around –0.56 vs. a more negative signal line near –3.1 leaves a positive histogram, which means downside momentum has already peaked and is trying to turn.
Very short-term oscillators are more stretched the other way. Stochastic around the low-70s and CCI in the +80s look near overbought after the latest bounce from the low-$80s. The message from that cluster: the trend is still down, the selling impulse is no longer extreme, but the recent relief rally is already “warm” and can easily be faded if capital flows do not improve.

Support, Resistance And The “Battlefield” Between $70 And $105

The current market is defined by a tight cluster of levels.

The first band is short-term support in the mid-$80s and resistance around $89–$90. Solana has been oscillating in this narrow pocket; any decisive move above $90 would be the first sign that the market is willing to challenge the broader downtrend.
Above that, the real upside test begins around $100, which multiple analyses highlight as the first psychologically important level in a recovery scenario. Clearing $100 would tell you that the worst forced selling is behind the asset.
The next technically critical area sits close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $105. A clean break and hold above ~$105 – not an intraday spike, but closes that turn it into support – would be the first serious signal that the downtrend is breaking, not just pausing.
On the downside, failure to defend the $81–$82 area leaves $76.25 as the immediate target from the short-term bearish setup and exposes the broader $75–$70 demand zone identified by several independent models. That $70 level is the last obvious structural support before the market tries to test or undercut the recent year-low around $67.5–$67.5. A break cleanly below $70 would not just be another dip; it would confirm that sellers still control the tape and that long-term capitulation is not complete.

Flows, Volume And ETF Pressure – Why Liquidity Matters As Much As The Chart

Under the surface, flows explain why the chart looks as fragile as it does. Solana-linked ETFs and institutional products recently saw record daily outflows near $12 million on down days, signaling that larger players have stopped accumulating and in some cases are actively reducing exposure.
At the same time, on centralized venues actual spot trading volume around 10 million SOL versus a 365-million average shows that a huge part of the speculative activity has dried up. Low volume at depressed prices can mean two opposite things: either apathy before a final leg lower, or the early stage of an accumulation base where only patient capital is active.
Money-flow studies give a mixed but important signal. The Chaikin Money Flow has started to tick up from negative territory, indicating that the intensity of outflows is easing even if we are not yet in a strong inflow regime. On other frameworks, the Money Flow Index is pressing toward oversold readings below 20, something Solana has only seen three times in the last two and a half years, each coinciding with substantial post-event stabilization or reversal.
Overall, liquidity is thin, and that is a double-edged sword: it amplifies both downside risk on breaks under $80 and upside speed if the market decides to chase any breakout above $90–$100.

Medium-Term Price Scenarios – From $52.30 Bear Case To $203–$2,000 Bull Case

Different forecasting frameworks give a wide dispersion of outcomes, which is exactly what you expect from a high-beta asset with strong narrative optionality.

On the systematic side, one AI-driven model sets:

A 1-month downside target around $52.30, which would imply roughly a 40% drop from the current mid-$80s zone and push SOL decisively below all recent supports.
A 3-month target near $142.85, implying a 60–70% upside if the network regains favor and spot inflows return.
A 12-month objective around $203.12, pointing to a rough 130% gain from current levels — still far below the prior high near $253–255, but a meaningful recovery leg in a new cycle.

Long-horizon, fundamentals-driven outlooks stretch that range further. A multi-scenario 2030 framework puts SOL:

In a base case between $800 and $1,500 by the end of the decade if network adoption continues to grow in DeFi, NFTs, gaming and consumer apps.
In a high-conviction bull case toward $2,000–$3,000+ if Solana becomes a core venue for high-throughput consumer applications, tokenized assets and Web3 infrastructure with deep institutional capital involved.
In a bear case around $400–$700 if Ethereum L2s and competing high-throughput chains capture most of the incremental demand and Solana remains a niche but functioning network.

Those 2030 bands are not “targets”; they frame the optional upside against the structural risks. The market today is clearly not pricing the full bull scenario, but neither is it pricing terminal failure.

Network Fundamentals, Competition And Why Solana Still Commands A Premium Narrative

Even after a 56% drawdown, Solana retains key strengths that explain why long-term projections remain constructive. It is a high-throughput, low-fee layer-1 that has built a real footprint in DeFi, NFTs, gaming and consumer-facing crypto. Transaction costs remain low, throughput is high, and developer activity is still visible even in a hostile macro tape.
The challenge is not whether the technology works — it is whether Solana can convert that performance into durable network effects in a world where Ethereum’s ecosystem is scaling through L2s. If Ethereum’s rollup stack and other performant chains absorb most of the real usage and liquidity, Solana’s addressable share of the future market shrinks, and the path to the ambitious $800–$2,000+ 2030 bands becomes much steeper.
On the flip side, the fact that Solana is still a top-tier asset by market cap, even after collapsing from $253 to the $80s, shows that the market still assigns real option value to the chain. That optionality is precisely what long-term buyers are targeting during deep drawdowns.

Short-Term Tactical View – The $89.35 Cap, The $76.25 Target And The $70 Line In The Sand

In the near term, price action is governed less by the 2030 story and more by the concrete levels around the current trading band. The framework from classical technical analysis is straightforward:

As long as SOL stays below $89.35, the dominant intraday bias is negative. That level acts as the lid on every bounce.
If Solana fails to reclaim and hold $89–$90 quickly, the chart remains set up for a drive toward $76.25, which is the next tactical target in the existing bearish setup.
Losing $76.25 on a closing basis reopens the wider $75–$70 demand zone. A clean break below $70 would mean the market has rejected the current base and decided to search for a lower equilibrium, likely triggering another wave of forced selling and liquidations.

Conversely, if price closes convincingly above $90 and sustains that level, the market will immediately start probing the $100 handle. Reclaiming $100 and then turning the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $105 into support would be the first time in this downtrend that buyers impose real control over the tape rather than just squeezing shorts for a few hours. From there, the technical upside map points toward $123.9 (the 50-day moving average) as the next staging area and then potentially toward the $140s and finally the $144–150 zone, which one framework identifies as the level that would mark the end of the current downtrend if broken on a daily close.

Valuation, Risk/Reward And A Clear Verdict On SOL-USD

From a pure risk/reward perspective, Solana now trades in a zone where on-chain stress is extreme, most holders are underwater, and technical structure is still bearish but late-cycle. The downside cases are explicit: a break under $81, a drive to $76.25, and a possible extension toward $70–$67 if liquidity vanishes again. On the upside, the path is equally clear: reclaim $90, then $100, then $105 and $123.9, and the market will start pricing the 12-month and 2030 recovery scenarios more aggressively.
Given the combination of:

A 56% drawdown from the high with the asset still fundamentally relevant
An on-chain setup where only ~21.9% of addresses are in profit, historically near bottom zones
A technical picture where the bear trend is mature, but not yet reversed
And a long-term fundamental story that still supports multi-bagger potential if execution and adoption improve

The balanced, fact-based stance here is not a sell and not an aggressive all-in buy at any price. At current levels around the mid-$80s, SOL-USD sits in a zone that is too compressed to be dumped blindly and still too technically fragile to be treated as a fully confirmed turnaround.
On that basis, the rational decision is to classify Solana (SOL-USD) as a cautious Buy: upside optionality into the $140–$200+ range over the next year and $400–$800+ by 2030 is real, while structural downside toward $70–$67 is visible and must be respected. The chart requires strict risk limits around the $70 support band, but the combination of on-chain capitulation, deep drawdown and still-intact fundamental narrative justifies leaning constructively, not defensively, from these levels.

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