Solana Price Forecast - SOL Sits at $79 as Selling Exhausts and Whales Bet on a Rebound

Macro and market context: tariffs, risk-off flows and cross-asset pressure

The current SOL-USD slide does not exist in isolation. The broader crypto complex is under pressure as macro risk has turned hostile again. Renewed tariff uncertainty, with a floated 15% blanket levy proposal in the US, has triggered a rotation away from high-beta assets. Bitcoin has slipped below $65,000 in recent sessions, and major altcoins like XRP, ETH and others have also been hit. Risk-off flows are visible across markets: safe-haven demand is pushing gold above $5,200 an ounce and lifting silver, while equities tied to global trade and growth have rolled over. In that environment, the 55.07% six-month drawdown in Solana (SOL-USD) lines up with a broader risk asset de-rating, not just token-specific weakness. That macro backdrop explains why the ADX is so high: the downtrend is not purely technical; it is being driven by fundamental de-risking as tariffs, geopolitics and tighter financial conditions compress appetite for leveraged exposure.

Volatility signals: RSI extremes, super-trend sell, and the “no man’s land” zone

Volatility metrics and pattern-based tools are flashing conflicting but important signals. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI for Solana (SOL-USD) has dropped to levels last seen in December 2022, when SOL traded near $8 before launching a major bull run in the months that followed. Structurally, that means the market is already in the kind of momentum exhaustion zone where powerful trend reversals can start. At the same time, the monthly super-trend indicator has printed a sell signal, the first since January 2022, when it preceded a 95% collapse. That mix—extreme oversold plus a major trend sell trigger—creates a wide cone of possible outcomes, from a violent reversal to a prolonged grind lower. Some analysts describe the current area as “no man’s land”, with Sol-USD trapped between a cap around $110 and a vacuum that runs down toward $20. Under that interpretation, failure to reclaim levels above $110 over the coming months keeps the door open for a structurally deeper retracement, even after intermittent short squeezes.

Short-term microstructure: intraday support at $77–$75 and risk of a slide toward $70 and $62

Short-horizon traders are watching the $77–$75 pocket closely. Immediate support sits around $77.30, with the next level at $75. Holding that zone would allow a consolidation phase under $82–$83 and create a base for a push toward $87 and $92. Losing $75 on a clean hourly and daily close would likely invite a test of the $70 area, an important psychological and technical level. Below $70, a move toward $62 is plausible, aligning with the Bollinger lower band near $61.32 and the lower projections from intraday wave structures. The hourly MACD remains in the bearish zone, and the hourly RSI rests below 50, telling you that, on this timeframe, the bears still control momentum. Until price breaks the descending trendline and reclaims $82 with conviction, every bounce inside this tight intraday channel is vulnerable to being sold.

Directional stance for Solana (SOL-USD): short-term bearish, high-risk speculative buy on a 6–12 month view

Taking everything together—trend strength, oversold momentum, derivatives positioning, whale activity, long-term accumulation, short-term overhang, and macro risk—the picture is nuanced but clear enough for a stance. Structurally, the market is still in a firm downtrend. ADX above 50, price under both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, funding negative, and a long-to-short ratio of 0.89 all confirm that near-term pressure is to the downside, with realistic risk of revisiting $67.50 and, if stress intensifies, probing the $60–$54 band. At the same time, RSI near 35 on the daily and extreme lows on the weekly, combined with rising Chaikin Money Flow, a surge in long-term holder accumulation to roughly 972,417 SOL in a day, and aggressive whale longs around $77–$80, show that the risk-reward curve is bending in favour of staged accumulation rather than fresh shorts for anyone with a 6–12 month horizon. With that in mind, the stance is as follows. Short term, Solana (SOL-USD) remains bearish while it trades below $82–$83 and especially while it cannot reclaim the 50-day moving average at $115.06. Expect volatility spikes and respect the possibility of a flush toward $67.50 or even the low-$60s if $76.45 and $75 give way. On a 6–12 month view, at prices around $79 with a 52-week high at $253.61 and realistic recovery bands in the $115–$220 range, Solana (SOL-USD) sits in high-risk speculative buy territory, provided risk is sized for the possibility of a further 20–30% drawdown and invalidation below the $53–$54 zone. The trend is still down, but the combination of deep discount versus previous highs, growing long-term accumulation and stretched negative positioning sets up asymmetry in favour of those prepared to absorb volatility rather than chase the crowd at the bottom.

That's TradingNEWS