Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Falls to $185 as ETF Delay and Weak On-Chain Activity Threaten Support

Solana (SOL-USD) Faces Pressure Below $190 as ETF Delay and Weak On-Chain Demand Cloud Outlook

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading around $185, down 3.5% in the past 24 hours, after losing momentum above the $190 level. The decline from Monday’s high of $194 underscores risk aversion across digital assets as investors digest macro uncertainty and regulatory delays. With the token now hovering just below the 200-day EMA at $186, near-term sentiment has turned fragile and the technical setup leans cautiously bearish.

Network activity continues to weaken, highlighting the fundamental challenge facing Solana in sustaining last quarter’s rally. Data from DefiLlama show active addresses averaging 15 million per week, nearly 55% lower than the May peak of 33.6 million. Only 4.74 million addresses have interacted with the blockchain so far this week. Fewer active users mean thinner transaction volumes, less on-chain liquidity, and reduced network revenue — a combination that pressures demand for SOL and limits inflows into new decentralized projects.

The drop in activity has also filtered through to Solana’s derivatives market. Futures open interest has fallen sharply to $8.64 billion, compared with nearly $15 billion earlier this month. That 42% contraction signals a clear loss of speculative appetite as traders unwind leveraged positions. Weighted funding rates have slipped slightly into negative territory at -0.0001%, suggesting the balance is tilting toward short positions. While far from the -0.375% panic levels seen during October’s liquidation event, the trend indicates persistent caution rather than aggressive buying.

Technically, Solana remains under short-term pressure as bears maintain control beneath the 200-day EMA. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flipped bearish again, reinforcing expectations for further downside. A daily close below $185 would confirm a break of support and could open the door to a 6% slide toward $174, the next significant demand zone. RSI readings near 46 also imply room for additional weakness before the market becomes oversold.

Still, the broader outlook isn’t without upside potential. A quick recovery above the 200-day EMA could attract short covering, particularly if overall crypto sentiment improves. The first resistance to watch is around $190, followed by the psychological $200 level, where a sustained breakout could reestablish bullish momentum. For that scenario to unfold, trading volume must increase and network engagement would need to show visible stabilization.

Institutional attention remains a quiet tailwind in the background. Exchange-traded product flows tied to Solana have posted $156 million in weekly inflows, according to CoinShares, bringing year-to-date totals near $2.8 billion. That steady accumulation stands in contrast to the $946 million of outflows seen from Bitcoin products during the same period, hinting that some investors are rotating into Solana ahead of potential ETF approvals later this year.

Regulatory news, however, continues to inject volatility. The U.S. SEC postponed its decision on several crypto-related ETFs, including Bitwise’s proposed spot Solana fund, pushing the new review date further out. The delay has dampened short-term optimism, but approval could unlock billions in institutional capital and spark a strong recovery phase similar to the early-year Bitcoin ETF effect.

Despite current weakness, Solana’s network remains fundamentally active compared with most layer-1 competitors. Transaction volumes, DeFi participation, and NFT activity remain among the industry’s highest, and the recent announcement by co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko promoting the Percolator decentralized futures exchange reflects continued innovation across its ecosystem. Liquidity growth from such initiatives may gradually offset the present slowdown in user activity.

For now, Solana’s near-term outlook hinges on its ability to defend the $174–$185 range. A failure to hold that zone could extend the correction toward $170, while a decisive close back above $190 would restore buyer confidence and potentially set the stage for a rebound toward $210. Until then, trading remains choppy, driven by fragile sentiment and macro-sensitive positioning across the crypto complex.

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