Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Under Pressure: $870M Unlock, Bear Flag and the Battle for $80

Solana (SOL-USD) – price, regime and where the risk really sits now

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading in the mid-80s, roughly $81–$86, up about 5.5% over the last seven days after a sharp early-February drop. That bounce is modest relative to the prior selloff and it is stalling below a dense resistance band instead of flipping the trend. The structure is corrective, not a clean upside reversal. Price has already failed at the $90 region once with bearish engulfing candles on the 4H chart and is now rotating lower under the local point of control. With bearish continuation patterns still active and on-chain supply turning more liquid, the tape is leaning toward another test of sub-$80 levels before any sustainable move higher.

SOL price action – rejection at $90 and renewed control by sellers

The last push toward $90 was a critical test for Solana (SOL-USD). Price briefly probed above that resistance, then immediately closed back below, printing clear bearish engulfing candles on the 4-hour chart. That pattern tells you aggressive supply was waiting above $90 and buyers had neither the size nor the conviction to absorb it. From there, SOL slid back under the recent point of control, the price area where the bulk of volume traded in this range. Losing the POC after a failed breakout is a classic sign that the market is walking away from the attempt and re-establishing a downside bias. As long as SOL remains below $90 and below that POC, every minor rally inside the range is more likely to be distribution than the start of a sustained up-leg.

Bear flag on Solana – mapped downside from $82 to $41

The broader pattern on SOL-USD is still a bear flag anchored on the earlier drawdown of more than 50% from the recent peak. Price saw a vertical drop, then a climbing consolidation channel that never reclaimed the prior highs. That is how continuation structures behave until they are broken decisively. The immediate line in the sand is the $82 support region. A clean break and acceptance below $82 activates the lower rungs: first the $78–$80 support band, then the next levels around $67 and $50. In the full measured-move completion of the flag, the target sits near $41, roughly another 50% below the current mid-80s trade zone. That path requires sustained selling and failed bounces, but it is on the table as long as Solana stays capped under the downtrend line and cannot retake the upper half of the current range.

$78–$80 for SOL-USD – Fibonacci confluence, liquidity and stress point

The $78–$80 area is not just a round number. It is where several elements line up for Solana (SOL-USD). It sits just under the psychological $80 level, it marks the lower edge of the current trading structure, and it aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg. That combination creates a natural magnet in corrective phases. Order books typically carry stops and resting bids around that band, meaning a drive into $78 can trigger forced flows. If SOL spikes into $78 quickly and then snaps back above $80 with real volume, that looks like a liquidity sweep: weak hands washed out, late shorts caught leaning, and a short-term bounce becomes viable. If instead price grinds lower, prints multiple closes below $78 and cannot retake $80, the market is signaling that buyers are absent and the door opens toward the deeper supports referenced in the bear-flag roadmap.

Weekly RSI and higher-timeframe structure – cooling momentum, not a clean breakdown

On the weekly chart, Solana (SOL-USD) is working through a momentum reset rather than a collapse of the entire structure. Weekly RSI has cooled down toward the low-40s area, similar to the zones seen in 2022 and early 2023 where selloffs eventually stabilized before the next major move. Importantly, the latest pullback has not yet broken the broader post-2023 range; price is still oscillating inside the band created after that rebound. That combination – RSI cooling without a structural break – typically points to a pause phase, not a confirmed long-term trend reversal. However, cooling momentum can last for weeks. Until weekly RSI turns up from this region and price starts printing higher highs again, any strength should be viewed as corrective inside a vulnerable structure rather than the start of a new secular leg.

Liquidity wall above Solana – $90–$105 as the short squeeze pocket

Just above current levels sits a heavy liquidity cluster between $90 and $105 on liquidation heatmaps. That band is packed with resting orders and late short positions built during and after the February dump. Price has so far failed to reach it in size, but the zone is critical. A decisive move by SOL-USD into $90–$105 would likely trigger forced liquidations on those shorts, accelerating price in a short squeeze as positions get wiped. That is why the $90–$91 region and the descending trendline from the 2024 peak are so important. A daily close above that trendline, inside the liquidity pocket, would flip the short-term script from “sell rallies” to “retest and hold” and could carry Solana deeper into this cluster in a fast move. While that would not immediately fix the entire higher-timeframe picture, it would tell you that aggressive sellers lost control of the range, at least temporarily.

Descending trendline and reclaim thresholds – when SOL-USD stops being a pure short-the-rip market

On the daily chart, Solana (SOL-USD) is still capped by a descending resistance line that has rejected several attempts since the 2024 top. Each approach has ended with a rollover back toward the mid-range. The roadmap here is simple and binary. As long as SOL trades below that trendline and below $90, the playbook remains to fade strength rather than chase it. A clean break and multiple daily closes above the trendline and above $90–$91 would indicate that supply at that level has been exhausted. The next checkpoint is the $105 area where the liquidity cluster ends; clearing that zone with conviction puts $125 back in view. A move that reclaims $125 and holds above it would invalidate the current bear-flag narrative and force a re-rating of the entire medium-term view. Until those levels are taken out, the chart still argues that rallies are suspect and downside tails are not fully explored.

On-chain supply – $870 million in SOL unlocked from liquid staking

Under the surface, supply dynamics are shifting in a way that increases pressure on Solana (SOL-USD). Since June 2025, the total amount of SOL locked in liquid staking protocols has dropped from 45.66 million SOL to 35.48 million SOL. That is 10.18 million SOL coming out of liquid staking, more than 22% of the previous total. At current prices that is roughly $870 million of SOL that was previously locked and is now liquid again. This does not mean all of it will be dumped at once, but it clearly raises the potential sellable supply. At the same time, direct validator-staked SOL has slipped from around 423.43 million to about 419.07 million. That confirms this is not just rotation between staking formats; some stake is leaving locked setups entirely. When price trades inside a bear flag and more coins move from locked to liquid, the balance tilts toward a market where any break of support has more fuel behind it.

Short-term holders gaining share – fast hands in control of more SOL

Ownership composition is shifting in a way that adds fragility. Short-term holders of Solana (SOL-USD) – wallets that typically keep coins for one day to one week – now control a larger slice of circulating supply. Their share jumped from about 4.58% to 5.85% in just a few days after February 16. That is a sharp increase, and this cohort has a clear pattern: it tends to sell into volatility instead of absorbing it. When more supply sits in such fast hands, drawdowns accelerate and bounces fade faster. In practice, that means any break under $82 or $80 is more likely to trigger reflex selling from these short-term players. It also means that even after a bounce, supply can hit the market quickly if price hesitates near resistance. A structure where short-term holders are expanding their footprint while long-term conviction cools is not the backdrop you want ahead of a key support test.

Long-term holders slowing accumulation – weaker base under Solana

Longer-horizon wallets, the group that usually stabilizes markets during corrections, have been stepping back rather than pressing harder. The Hodler Net Position Change for Solana (SOL-USD) shows that 30-day net accumulation by these long-term participants has dropped from around 2,877,297 SOL on February 3 to about 1,013,353 SOL. That is a contraction of nearly 65% in net buying. They are still adding, but much less aggressively. This matters because long-term holders typically act as the shock absorbers in deep pullbacks. When they accumulate heavily, dips get bought and support firms up. When their net buying slows into a zone like $80–$85, the market becomes far more sensitive to negative catalysts. Combined with the uptick in short-term holder share and the $870 million unlocked from liquid staking, this slowdown tells you the base under Solana is thinner than it was earlier in the cycle, just as the technical picture is threatening a break of key levels.

Micro-caps and Solana ecosystem sentiment – what SOLAZY and other fringe tokens are telling you

At the edges of the Solana ecosystem, behavior in fringe tokens like SOLAZY shows how speculative capital is positioned. SOLAZY is trading around $0.000001 with under $10K market cap, liquidity pools below $1,000, and almost no daily volume. It is one of more than 11.9 million tokens minted on Pump.fun, where roughly 98.6% of launches either fail, are abandoned, or are outright scams. That environment tells you two things. First, the Solana chain is still attracting speculative experiments, which is positive for network usage. Second, there is a thick graveyard of dead micro-caps where liquidity and attention never return. The important point for SOL-USD is that the ecosystem is crowded and capital is fragmented. When higher-beta satellite tokens struggle, capital often rotates back to majors like SOL, but only if there is a clear bullish catalyst. Right now, micro-cap behavior is more of a caution flag than a tailwind; it shows no powerful, synchronized risk-on wave across the ecosystem.

Key upside triggers – what Solana needs to change the narrative

For Solana (SOL-USD) to shift out of this corrective regime, several triggers are needed, not just one good candle. First, price must reclaim and hold $90–$91, pushing into the $90–$105 liquidity wall and forcing late shorts to cover. That requires decisive volume, not a thin wick. Second, the descending trendline from the 2024 high must break on daily closes, converting it from resistance into support. Third, on-chain, the pace of liquid staking outflows and validator-stake reduction needs to cool, while long-term holder net accumulation ramps back toward the 2.8 million SOL monthly run-rate or higher. Finally, weekly RSI has to turn higher from the low-40s instead of sliding into the 30s. If those conditions start lining up and SOL pushes above $105 with follow-through, the path back toward $125 opens, and the bear-flag thesis loses validity. Until those shifts occur together, upside is a tradeable squeeze, not a change of regime.

Verdict on Solana (SOL-USD) – bias bearish, stance Sell until key levels are reclaimed

Putting price structure, liquidity, and on-chain data together, the current profile of Solana (SOL-USD) leans bearish. The market is still inside a bear flag, short-term holders control a growing share of supply, nearly 10.18 million SOL (about $870 million) has moved from locked to liquid since mid-2025, long-term accumulation has dropped by about 65%, and price is hovering just above a critical $82 and $78–$80 support cluster. There is a visible liquidity wall above $90–$105 that can fuel sharp squeezes, but until $90–$91, the downtrend line and ideally $105 are reclaimed and held, the dominant risk is still a drive lower toward $78, then potentially $67–$50 and even the $41 bear-flag target if supports fail. With that setup, the stance is Sell / underweight with a bearish tactical bias, using any spikes toward the $90–$105 band as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than chase, and revisiting that view only if Solana can break and sustain above the key resistance thresholds mapped out above.

That's TradingNEWS