Stock Market Gains Momentum as Nasdaq Leads on Earnings, AI, and Macro Strength

Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Advance on Earnings, Macro Boost

A powerful combination of strong corporate earnings and favorable economic indicators lifted all major U.S. indices on Thursday. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to extend its July climb, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 175 points (+0.4%). The Nasdaq Composite led the charge, rising 0.8% and continuing its record-setting momentum amid a tech-heavy rally.

PepsiCo (PEP) Surges on Rebound in Global Demand

PepsiCo (PEP) soared 6.7% after reporting Q2 revenue of $22.73 billion and EPS of $2.12, topping estimates of $22.28 billion and $2.03, respectively. Although U.S. volumes declined, international momentum and favorable FX helped mitigate the pressure. The company reduced its full-year EPS decline forecast to -1.5%, compared to its prior -3% guidance, reflecting confidence in its overseas turnaround and demand for health-conscious beverages like Poppi.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Notches Record Profit, Lifts AI Outlook

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) rallied 4% after posting Q2 net income of $13.5 billion, a 61% year-over-year jump. The Nvidia (NVDA) supplier credited rising AI chip demand for its revised full-year sales forecast—now expecting +30% Y/Y growth, up from mid-20% estimates. CapEx guidance remains firm at $40 billion. TSM also benefits indirectly from the Biden administration’s partial reversal on export controls to China, with Nvidia allowed to resume select shipments.

Lucid Group (LCID) Rockets on Uber Robotaxi Deal

Lucid (LCID) spiked 42% after revealing a major partnership with Uber (UBER) and Nuro to deploy 20,000+ Level 4 autonomous robotaxis over six years. The Lucid Gravity SUV will be outfitted with Nuro Driver technology and fully integrated into Uber's platform. While UBER shares dipped 0.4%, the robotaxi news fueled speculation around future autonomy rollouts in major U.S. cities.

United Airlines (UAL) Revises 2025 Guidance, Investors Shrug

United Airlines (UAL) traded higher by 1.7% despite cutting its full-year EPS guidance to $9–$11 from $11.50–$13.50. CEO Scott Kirby cited recovering travel demand and fewer macro uncertainties. Q2 results beat on EPS but missed on revenue. UAL shares are down nearly 9% YTD but have rebounded 20% in the past month, aided by stabilization in business travel.

GE Aerospace (GE) Lifts Forecast Despite Tariff Drag

GE Aerospace (GE) rose after reporting adjusted EPS of $1.66 on revenue of $10.15 billion, exceeding consensus ($1.43 EPS on $9.59B). GE raised full-year guidance despite projecting a $500 million impact from retaliatory tariffs. Strong demand in commercial services and efficiency improvements supported the outlook.

Netflix (NFLX) Earnings Anticipation Builds as Valuation Debate Intensifies

Netflix (NFLX) traded 1% higher heading into its Q2 earnings release. The stock has climbed 40% YTD, trading at ~40x forward EPS—twice the S&P 500 average. Wall Street remains divided: JPMorgan urges caution, maintaining a neutral rating and $1,220 PT, while bulls project EPS growth of 21% CAGR over three years. The report is a bellwether for Big Tech's valuation durability.

Starbucks (SBUX) Downgraded Amid Lackluster Turnaround Evidence

Starbucks (SBUX) slipped after Jefferies downgraded the stock to underperform, citing a disconnect between valuation and fundamental progress. With shares up 13% in three months but comps and margins still weak, Jefferies sees 18% downside.

ADM (ADM) Falls on Trump Cane Sugar Push

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) dropped 2% after President Trump announced Coca-Cola (KO) would switch from high-fructose corn syrup to cane sugar. Ingredients supplier Ingredion (INGR) also fell 4%. Trump’s statement triggered investor concerns around revenue disruptions for corn-based sweetener producers.

Macroeconomic Snapshot: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales Beat Expectations

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 came in at 221,000, down from 228,000 prior and marking a three-month low. Retail sales surged 0.6% MoM in June, sharply beating the 0.2% forecast. Ex-autos, retail climbed 0.5%. The data reinforce consumer resilience amid rising rates and tariff uncertainty.

Powell Under Fire, But Fed Independence Gets Wall Street Backing

President Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets midweek. While Trump said he isn’t planning to fire Powell “for now,” he didn’t rule out removal. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.7% Wednesday before rebounding. JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Bank of America (BAC) publicly reaffirmed the importance of Fed independence.

Big Banks Profit from Volatility and Tariffs

Wall Street banks are thriving amid market turmoil. Goldman Sachs (GS) saw Q2 earnings rise 22% to $3.7B, fueled by a 36% jump in equity trading revenue. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) also posted double-digit growth in trading and dealmaking. Collectively, the top five banks reported $33.8B in trading revenue, +17% Y/Y, and $8.7B in investment banking revenue, +7% Y/Y.

Crypto Markets Lifted by Stablecoin Bill Progress

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rebounded above $118,000 as the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act cleared a record-setting House procedural vote. Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs and optimism over regulatory clarity helped stabilize recent volatility.

Tariffs Continue to Reshape Global Trade and Sentiment

President Trump warned that over 150 countries may face 10–15% blanket tariffs, adding fresh uncertainty to global supply chains. Still, June’s 0.6% retail sales growth suggests U.S. consumers remain undeterred. Meanwhile, ASML (ASML) cut its 2026 outlook, citing tariff risks. Brent crude (BZ=F) bounced to $69.34 per barrel on tighter inventory and stronger refinery activity.

Buy/Sell/Hold Verdicts Based on Current Data

• TSMC (TSM): BUY – Record earnings, 60% profit surge, $40B CapEx, and bullish AI exposure support further upside.

• PEP (PepsiCo): BUY – Beat on top/bottom lines, resilient international growth, favorable FX, and forward guidance less negative.

• NFLX (Netflix): HOLD – Await earnings clarity. Growth priced in; valuation stretched.

• UAL (United Airlines): HOLD – Revised guidance cautious; momentum stabilizing.

• LCID (Lucid): SPECULATIVE BUY – Uber deal transformative, but execution risk remains high.

• SBUX (Starbucks): SELL – Weak margin recovery and stretched valuation.

• ADM (ADM): SELL – Trump sugar push poses downside risk.

• NVDA (Nvidia): BUY – China export policy reversal adds $15B potential upside; TSMC signals robust pipeline.

• GS, JPM, BAC: BUY – Volatility, M&A, and resilient consumer demand are boosting earnings even amid macro shocks.

Stay Tuned: Netflix and Tech Earnings Will Set the Next Direction

All eyes now shift to Netflix’s Q2 print. If results beat and guidance impresses, the Nasdaq (IXIC) could break to fresh highs. Tech bulls are betting the AI-fueled earnings trend remains intact. But any disappointment could trigger valuation pressure across the sector.

That's TradingNEWS