Stock Market Today: Wall Street Wobbles as 130K Jobs Jolt S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Off Record Highs

Stock Market Today – S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones (DJIA) and Nasdaq (COMP) stall after jobs shock

Intraday performance of S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones (DJIA), Nasdaq (COMP) and Russell 2000 (RUT)

U.S. equities swung from strong early gains to modest losses as the January jobs report forced a reset in the Federal Reserve path. The S&P 500 (SPX) traded near 6,928, down about 0.2% after an intraday push toward 6,993 that again failed to clear the 7,000 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hovered around 49,977, lower by roughly 0.4% after touching the 50,499 area and failing to hold a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) sat near 22,977, off around 0.5%–0.6% after an early 0.8% pop. Small caps weakened further, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) around 2,648, down about 1.2%, underperforming the large-cap benchmarks as higher yields hit more levered and domestically sensitive names. Volatility edged higher, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) near 18.5, up more than 4%, signaling a shift from one-way upside to a more two-sided tape rather than outright panic.

Labor market re-accelerates: 130,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemployment and sector concentration

The delayed January nonfarm payrolls report landed well above expectations and pushed the growth narrative back toward resilience. Employers added 130,000 jobs versus consensus for about 55,000 and a revised 48,000 in December. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4%, defying forecasts for no change and confirming that layoffs remain contained despite last year’s slowdown. Under the surface, the improvement was narrow. Health-related industries alone generated roughly 124,000 positions, about double their typical monthly gain and nearly the entire net increase, while many other sectors showed either modest hiring or flat headcount. That concentration matters because every month in 2025 ultimately saw downward revisions, leaving average job growth last year near 15,000 once benchmark and monthly changes are included. The latest print shows a labor market stabilizing from a weak base, but still vulnerable to revisions and sector-specific shocks rather than broad-based strength.

Wages, retail sales and consumer dynamics heading into 2026

Compensation and spending data point to a consumer that is cooling, not collapsing. Wages and salaries for private-sector workers rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the slowest increase since mid-2021. On a year-over-year basis, pay is up about 3.4%, down from the 5%+ peaks during the post-pandemic surge. December retail sales were flat versus expectations for a 0.4% gain, breaking a run of stronger prints and signaling that higher rates and fading excess savings are curbing discretionary outlays. Companies tied to non-essential categories are now confirming that pattern in their guidance. The equity market can tolerate slower wage growth and more cautious spending as long as the labor backdrop avoids a sharp break, but the margin for policy error is narrowing.

Treasury yields, Fed expectations and March cut odds

Rates moved in textbook fashion after the jobs surprise. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to roughly 4.17%–4.20% from near 4.13% before the data, while the 2-year climbed about 8 basis points to around 3.5%. Across the curve, yields on one- to three-year maturities rose by roughly 7 basis points, pushing borrowing costs higher but still inside the recent 4.0%–4.5% range for the 10-year. Fed funds futures now imply about a 94% chance that the Fed holds its policy rate at 3.5%–3.75% in March, up from around 78%–80% before the release. Implied odds of a March cut have dropped toward the mid-single digits from about 20%–22%. The first move lower is now more firmly priced for summer rather than spring. The new equilibrium is clear: growth is firm enough to delay easing, but not strong enough to justify a new tightening cycle. With SPX, DJIA and COMP near records, equities have to digest this “higher for longer but not higher forever” setting with less room for disappointment.

Index rotation: from ‘jobs bonanza’ open to failed S&P 500 (SPX) 7,000 test

At the open, the tape leaned firmly risk-on. The DJIA rose about 0.4%, the SPX gained roughly 0.6%, and the COMP jumped near 0.8%. Futures had already firmed after the payrolls beat, with E-mini S&P 500 (ES) contracts up about 0.4%, Dow futures higher by 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also ahead by around 0.4%. As the day progressed and yields crept higher, the SPX attempt to clear the 6,978 closing record and hold above 7,000 stalled. By mid-morning, the S&P 500 (SPX) had slipped back into the red, the DJIA had surrendered a potential fourth straight record close, and the COMP was under pressure again. Small-cap futures pointed to gains of close to 0.9%, but the RUT reversed to losses over 1%, showing how quickly the higher-beta, rate-sensitive parts of the market can move when the policy narrative shifts. The session shifted from “jobs bonanza” to failed breakout and rotation rather than a clean trend day.

Software under pressure: Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW) and the iShares Tech-Software ETF (IGV)

The drag from software stayed the main structural headwind for growth. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) traded about 3% lower and now sits roughly 30% beneath its 52-week high, deep in bear-market territory. Salesforce (CRM) slipped around 4% and ServiceNow (NOW) dropped about 6%, extending the “Software Armageddon” phase that has already taken a significant bite out of this group’s market value. The pressure is coming from a reset in expectations around AI: new digital and tax-planning tools are forcing investors to rethink the longevity of high-margin license and consulting revenue at established platforms. With valuations still rich on many tickers inside IGV, this slice of the COMP remains the obvious weak link whenever yields back up or disruption headlines hit.

AI infrastructure and industrial cyclicals: Vertiv (VRT), Caterpillar (CAT), GE Vernova (GEV) and Eaton (ETN)

The winners sit on the other side of the AI trade, in the hardware and industrial plumbing behind the data-center build-out. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) jumped roughly 15%–17% after a fourth-quarter earnings beat and a strong 2026 outlook that highlighted double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion. The market focused on Vertiv’s role in high-density power and cooling for hyperscale facilities and a backlog that supports multi-year visibility. Industrials that plug into the same electrification and grid themes traded firmer as well. Caterpillar (CAT) gained about 2%, GE Vernova (GEV) advanced roughly 1%, and Eaton (ETN) climbed close to 4%. All three are positioned to benefit from capex aimed at grid upgrades, electrification and AI data centers, not just traditional heavy machinery cycles. In a SPX that is punishing long-duration software cash flows, these cash-rich, asset-backed stories are emerging as relative leaders.

Healthcare and biotech: Moderna (MRNA) flu setback and Humana (HUM) earnings reset

Healthcare delivered some of the sharpest single-name moves. Moderna (MRNA) fell around 8%–10% after the FDA refused to review its application for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine, citing issues with the comparator arm in the trial. That decision delays Moderna’s push to diversify away from COVID-19 vaccines and slows a key potential revenue stream just as COVID demand normalizes. In managed care, Humana (HUM) slid roughly 6%–7% even though it beat consensus on adjusted profit and revenue. The company reported an adjusted loss near $3.96 per share for the quarter and guided 2026 EPS to roughly $1.98–$2.10, far below expectations around $2.48. With HUM already down more than 15% over the past year, the message was that margin repair will be gradual, not instantaneous. The day’s moves reinforced that healthcare inside the S&P 500 (SPX) remains highly idiosyncratic, where regulatory and cost dynamics overshadow the macro backdrop.

Industrial tech pivot: Generac (GNRC) leans into hyperscalers and data centers

Generac (GNRC) provided another example of legacy industrials re-rating once they tap into AI infrastructure demand. The stock rose nearly 6% despite a fourth-quarter earnings miss, as investors prioritized commentary on the company’s growing exposure to data centers. Shipments of home standby units have slowed, pressuring the traditional core business. However, management highlighted rising orders from hyperscalers and an expanding backlog in high-capacity backup solutions. That pivot from residential to enterprise and infrastructure is exactly what the market wants to pay for. In a DJIA and SPX environment where multiples are under review, proof that an industrial can plug into the AI capex supercycle outweighs a single-quarter earnings shortfall.

Consumer and discretionary signals: Mattel (MAT), Ford (F) and spending fatigue

Consumer earnings lined up with the message from flat December retail sales. Mattel (MAT) plunged roughly 26% after reporting a 3.4% year-over-year decline in net sales to about $6.35 billion, including a volume and mix drop of roughly 4.7 percentage points and broad weakness across categories such as coffee, cold cuts and important frozen and snack brands. Guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS in a range around $1.98–$2.10 fell well short of the prior consensus near $2.48, leaving no doubt that discretionary demand for non-essential goods is under pressure. In autos, Ford Motor (F) edged about 1% higher as investors rewarded tighter capital allocation and a measured approach to balancing EV investments with profitable combustion models. The split performance between MAT and F shows that within the SPX consumer complex, markets are now rewarding discipline and cash generation while aggressively marking down stories that need robust discretionary demand.

Platform and mobility names: Lyft (LYFT) guidance gap and demand quality

In mobility and platforms, Lyft (LYFT) was a clear underperformer. The shares dropped in the area of 12%–17% after the company reported fourth-quarter bookings around $5.07 billion, roughly in line with expectations, but guided first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $120 million–$140 million. That range is only just in line with optimistic projections and fell short of the upside surprise that a high-multiple, ride-hailing name needs. The reaction underlined how unforgiving the current tape is toward growth profiles that deliver volume without a convincingly improving margin trajectory. In a higher-real-yield world, demand quality and profitability trends matter as much as top-line growth for LYFT and peers on the COMP.

Fintech and trading flows: Robinhood (HOOD), Astera Labs (ALAB) and the AI volatility reset

Fintech and high-expectation listings had another volatile session. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) slipped around 7% after posting fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.28 billion, short of the roughly $1.34 billion the Street wanted. Transaction-based revenue of about $776 million also missed expectations near $801 million. The print reinforced how tightly HOOD’s revenue is linked to volatility and retail activity: with the VIX still below its long-term average and speculative trading far off 2021 extremes, earnings sensitivity to quieter markets remains high. Astera Labs (ALAB), a newer AI-related connectivity name, also sold off hard after its own update, reminding the market that even companies levered to AI themes can be punished when guidance does not clearly beat elevated expectations. Across fintech and fresh AI hardware, the bar for execution is high and simple thematic exposure is no longer enough.

Growth outliers: Cloudflare (NET) and Hinge Health (HNGE) buck the software gloom

Even with software weak as an asset class, select growth names outperformed. Cloudflare (NET) rallied roughly 12% after delivering strong quarterly numbers and guidance that underscored durable demand across security, edge computing and content delivery. Its role in enabling low-latency, secure networks keeps revenue growth and margins attractive, helping NET separate from the broader IGV drawdown. Hinge Health (HNGE) also jumped around 12% on the back of robust membership growth and improving unit economics in digital MSK care. These cases highlight how the market is now separating infrastructure-like, mission-critical platforms with clear moats from more commoditized software where AI competition and pricing pressure are eroding the premium.

Mega-caps and AI narratives: Tesla (TSLA), S&P Global (SPGI) and Raymond James Financial (RJF)

Mega-caps sent mixed signals but kept the AI narrative front and center. Most of the large-cap tech cohort was modestly lower after the open, with Tesla (TSLA) again the exception, adding about 2.5% after nearly 2% gains the previous day. That resilience, even as other growth names sag, shows how embedded AI and autonomy expectations remain in the TSLA story, offsetting cyclical auto concerns. In financials, S&P Global (SPGI) and Raymond James Financial (RJF) had fallen close to 10% and 9% in the prior session on worries that AI-driven advisory and planning tools could compress future fee pools. Both rebounded about 2% early today as bargain hunters stepped in, but the underlying tension remains: platforms that can deploy AI to deepen client engagement and cut costs will deserve a premium, while those that can be replicated or displaced by new tools will not. That theme runs directly through the SPX and COMP financial components.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD), dollar, gold, silver and crude: risk proxies and hedges reprice

Outside equities, global macro proxies realigned to the stronger jobs data. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded around $66,300–$67,000, down roughly 3%–4% from overnight highs near $69,000, mirroring the move higher in real yields and fading hopes for early, aggressive Fed cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) firmed to about 97.0, up roughly 0.2%–0.3%, supported by the labor surprise and renewed chatter around U.S. trade policy, including talk about the future of the USMCA framework. Despite the firmer dollar and higher yields, precious metals caught a bid. Gold futures traded near $5,067 an ounce, up about 0.7%, while silver futures surged more than 3% to around $82.8 per ounce. That combination of record-level gold, strong silver and slower real wage growth underscores demand for hedges against policy mistake risk and geopolitical stress. West Texas Intermediate crude held near $65.0 per barrel, up roughly 1.6%–2%, as the robust jobs print offset global growth worries and positioning left room for a reflex move higher after recent declines.

Volatility, small caps and risk appetite across S&P 500 (SPX), Dow (DJIA) and Nasdaq (COMP)

Risk appetite across the main benchmarks was more nuanced than the modest index moves suggest. The rise in the VIX toward the high-teens from the mid-teens points to a market preparing for wider intraday ranges rather than a collapse in confidence. The more-than-1% drop in the RUT on a day when the SPX and DJIA fell less than 0.5% highlights how higher borrowing costs still bear down on levered, domestic-focused companies. Inside the COMP, the spread between winners like VRT, NET and TSLA, and laggards such as CRM, NOW and HOOD, widened further. For the SPX, the push-and-pull between defensives, software, AI infrastructure, healthcare and financials kept the index pinned just below record territory, with sector rotation doing more work than index direction. The DJIA remains very close to the 50,000 level even after today’s pullback, underlining how a more cyclical, cash-flow-heavy mix can outperform in a higher-for-longer rate world.

Policy backdrop, wage trends and the Fed’s trade-off into mid-year

The macro signals confronting the Fed are mixed but manageable. Payroll growth of 130,000 and a 4.3% jobless rate give policymakers confidence that the labor market is not cracking, while better participation and improving hiring intentions among smaller firms suggest healing after a weak 2025. At the same time, wage growth slowing to about 3.4% year-on-year and flat December retail sales confirm that policy is restrictive and working through the system. The trade-off is straightforward. Moving too early risks reigniting inflation and forcing a harsher tightening campaign later. Moving too late risks rolling a fragile consumer and a still-recovering job market into a sharper downturn. With futures now pricing the first cut closer to mid-year and a shallow easing path, the hurdle for earlier action is high. Data will need to show either clear slippage in jobs or more convincing progress toward the inflation target to change the current, cautious stance.

Tactical stance across SPX, COMP and DJIA: buy, sell or hold

Across the major indices, the setup argues for a hold with a constructive tilt rather than an outright sell stance. The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones (DJIA) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) all sit close to record levels, supported by a labor market that is softening but not breaking and an AI capex cycle that is feeding directly into earnings for infrastructure, industrial and select tech names. Valuations are demanding, so a straight melt-up is unlikely while the 10-year yield trades near 4.2%, but today’s action looks more like consolidation and rotation than a definitive top. Within sectors, the clearer relative view is overweight AI infrastructure and quality cyclicals, underweight high-multiple software and speculative fintech. Names such as VRT, CAT, ETN, grid and power beneficiaries, and profitable autos and industrials have both earnings support and structural tailwinds. High-multiple software tracked by IGV, along with CRM and NOW, remains vulnerable until the market can see how AI affects their long-term margin structure. Platforms like HOOD and recent AI-linked listings such as ALAB warrant caution while volatility stays contained and guidance fails to clear a high bar. For hedging, elevated but still supported levels in gold and silver justify a measured long bias, given lingering inflation risk, geopolitical uncertainty and a patient Fed. BTC-USD trading back below recent highs and alongside a firmer DXY argues for a neutral stance there until the policy path and liquidity backdrop turn more clearly supportive. Overall, pullbacks driven by yield spikes toward 4.25% on the 10-year look more like selective entry opportunities into the stronger parts of SPX, COMP and DJIA than reasons to abandon risk, as long as labor data and earnings hold near current tracks.

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