Uber Smashes Q1 Estimates with 20 % Revenue Growth as Shares Rally to $48
Mobility trips jump 22 % to 1.8 billion and Eats bookings surge to $12.7 billion in Q1 – is UBER poised to climb past the $50 mark? | That's TradingNEWS
NYSE:UBER Blows Past Q1 Forecasts, Sparking Bullish Frenzy
Uber Technologies, Inc. delivered a first-quarter performance that redefined expectations, posting $10.3 billion in revenue—a 20 percent year-over-year surge that outstripped the $9.8 billion consensus by a wide margin. Adjusted EBITDA rocketed to $1.1 billion, eclipsing forecasts by roughly half a billion dollars and underscoring the company’s sharpened cost controls and operating leverage. Investors rewarded the stock with a 12 percent intraday rally, sending NYSE:UBER to its highest level since late 2023 as traders digested the depth of Uber’s outperformance across every division.
Mobility Demand Accelerates While Delivery Profits Soar
Ridesharing trips climbed to 1.8 billion this quarter, reflecting a 22 percent jump as urban commuters returned en masse and off-peak usage rebounded. Gross bookings in Mobility reached $18.5 billion, comfortably exceeding the $17.2 billion Street estimate, and the consolidated take-rate expanded to 20.3 percent on higher dynamic pricing and improved driver utilization. On the Delivery side, Uber Eats generated $12.7 billion in gross bookings—a 28 percent increase—fuelled by new city roll-outs and high-value restaurant partnerships. Even in inflation-sensitive markets order frequency dipped only marginally, yet a 150 basis-point expansion in Delivery contribution margin to 22.5 percent illustrated how sharper commission rates and tighter cost management offset any modest softness in basket size.
Waymo Alliance Supercharges Autonomous Vehicle Growth
Uber’s exclusive tie-up with Waymo continued to validate its platform advantage, delivering AV-enabled rides for nearly one in five trips in Phoenix. This quarter, Waymo trip volume through the Uber app rose by 42 percent versus the prior quarter, underlining the value of seamless integration versus stand-alone robo-taxi offerings. As Waymo expands into San Francisco and Los Angeles later this year, Uber stands to capture even greater share of autonomous miles while shedding human-driver expenses over time. Executives project that AV utilization could lift overall platform efficiency by 10 percent and support margin expansion of 200 basis points in the second half.
Insider Activity Mirrors Executive Conviction
Recent SEC filings at TradingNews show that senior leaders retained over 90 percent of their vested equity in April, opting to exercise only modest option grants. Board member Garrett Camp increased his stake by acquiring 50,000 shares at an average cost of $42.10 just ahead of the earnings release—a move that presaged the subsequent pop above $48. Director and investor confidence in Uber’s strategic roadmap and near-term catalysts remains undimmed, even as peers in the tech-enabled services space face slower momentum.
Raised Guidance Reflects Unstoppable Momentum
Management boosted full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $6.5–6.8 billion from the prior $6.2–6.5 billion outlook, pointing to sustained double-digit gross booking growth and continued expense discipline. Capex is still slated at $4.2 billion, but free cash flow conversion is now expected to climb to 20 percent of revenue as working capital turns and platform efficiencies scale. The sharpened trajectory underscores Uber’s ability to reinvest in product innovation while fortifying margins—an advantage few high-growth peers can match.
Valuation Disconnect Creates 55 Percent Upside Potential
At a forward P/E of 24x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x, NYSE:UBER trades at a steep discount to comparable tech-enabled marketplaces. A sum-of-the-parts analysis applying a 15x EBITDA multiple to Mobility and 10x to Delivery suggests a fair value exceeding $75 per share—55 percent above today’s $48 price. Even stripping out AV-driven margin tailwinds, core profitability alone supports a $65 target, implying 35 percent probable upside as the market re-rates Uber for durable cash flow generation.
Technical Indicators Signal Room to Run
Post-earnings price action saw Uber reclaim its 200-day moving average at $45.20 on volumes 60 percent above average, confirming renewed buyer conviction. With RSI at 64—below overbought territory—a clean break above $50 would likely propel the stock toward $60, where the next confluence of resistance aligns with its 52-week high. Momentum gauges and on-chain options flows both point to further accumulation, setting the stage for a sustained rally.
Analyst Verdict: Accumulate on Dips, Aim for $75 and Beyond
The combination of an outsized earnings beat, lifted guidance, deepening AV partnership moat, and persistent valuation anomaly makes NYSE:UBER a standout buy. Insider purchases and robust technical developments reinforce the bullish case. My strategy: add to positions on retracements below $46, employ a protective stop at $42, and scale out in the $75–80 zone as Uber’s execution narrative and growth runway command a premium in the market. Continuous quarterly surprises and autonomous vehicle leverage could drive the next leg of this compelling multi-year story.
