XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR: aggressive 2026 start with double-digit gains
Ripple’s ETF wrapper trade is reopening 2026 at full speed. XRPI on Nasdaq closed around $13.45, up 17.12% on the day, with a range between $12.27–$13.62 and a 52-week span of $10.44–$23.53. XRPR on BATS finished near $19.18, gaining 17.24%, after trading between $17.42–$19.18 against a 52-week band of $14.79–$25.99. Underneath both products sits XRP-USD, trading roughly around $2.10–$2.30, up about 18% in the first trading days of 2026 and extending a weekly gain of roughly 15–16%. Price is grinding above the $2.05–$2.12 zone that acted as resistance only days ago and now functions as short-term support. Market cap has pushed to roughly $121.7 billion, with trading volume during the latest breakout running 47.6% above the 7-day average and individual exchange sessions (for example on Upbit) showing liquidity scores around 678 versus 591 for Bitcoin and single-venue turnover near $207 million, about 17% of that platform’s total activity.
Flow picture: XRP ETFs pulling money while Bitcoin and Ethereum bleed
December 2025 drew a clear line between flows into XRP ETFs and outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum products. XRP ETFs absorbed roughly $483 million in December alone, while Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.09 billion in redemptions and Ethereum vehicles lost another $564 million. Over roughly the first fifty days since launch, cumulative XRP ETF inflows reached about $1.3 billion, the fastest adoption curve seen for any altcoin ETF, with 30–40 consecutive trading days of positive or flat flows before the first zero-inflow session. By early January 2026, total net inflows across U.S. spot XRP ETFs are tracking in the $1.18–$1.30 billion band, with total ETF assets around $1.3–$1.4 billion. That flow pattern is important: Bitcoin’s December ETF outflows were driven by profit-taking and tax positioning, while XRP saw continuous allocations even though spot price dropped about 15% in December from roughly $2.22 to $1.77. Institutions were clearly building positions into weakness rather than exiting with retail. For XRPI and XRPR, that means a persistent primary-market buyer sitting underneath the tape while underlying XRP-USD was selling off, which is exactly the behavior you want if you own the ETFs into 2026.
Mandate-driven XRP demand: why the inflows kept coming through a 15% drawdown
The structure of these flows matters more than the headline totals. The XRP ETF inflows in December and early January came in steady daily clips, not in a handful of outsized sessions. That tells you it is mandate-driven allocation, not fast money chasing candles. New mandates tied to the post-settlement status of XRP, plus the November ETF launch window, forced institutions to build core positions irrespective of short-term volatility. While XRP-USD slid from $2.22 to $1.77 in December and then rebounded above $2.10–$2.20 in early January, funds continued to report net buying. Bitcoin ETF flows, in contrast, were lumpy and calendar-driven: several straight days of redemptions around Christmas totaling $825 million inside that $1.09 billion monthly bleed, consistent with year-end rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting rather than a structural exit. For XRPI and XRPR this means the shareholder base is being built by slower, rules-based allocators who care about regulatory clearance and portfolio roles, not intraday charts. That kind of capital tends to hold through volatility and add on dips, which tightens the long-only base of both ETFs.
Penetration into XRP supply: ETFs now hold a material slice of the float
Multiple data points converge on the same conclusion: XRP ETFs are no longer a cosmetic wrapper; they are a real sink for circulating supply. Current estimates put total XRP ETF assets around $1.3–$1.4 billion, with those products now holding roughly 1.1–1.2% of XRP’s market cap and about 6–7% of circulating supply once cumulative accumulation is netted against exchange balances. On centralized venues, XRP balances have dropped to their lowest level since 2018, even as ETF assets climbed and on-chain activity pushed back toward ~1 million transactions per day. For holders of XRPI and XRPR, this matters because these ETFs create a one-way pipe: new inflows translate into underlying XRP being pulled off the open market and locked in custodial accounts. As balances on exchanges shrink and ETF plus custody holdings rise, every incremental buyer at the ETF level competes for a thinner float. If flows extend beyond the current $1.3 billion toward scenarios discussed in institutional research – for example $5 billion cumulative—XRP’s free float will tighten significantly more than Bitcoin’s, where ETF penetration is a much smaller share of total value and supply.
Regulation and infrastructure: why allocators are comfortable owning XRPI and XRPR
The regulatory and infrastructure backdrop is the main reason these flows exist at all. The August 2025 settlement with U.S. regulators moved XRP from “compliance headache” to “investable” inside large institutions’ frameworks. That ruling unlocked mandates that previously could not touch XRP or any instrument referencing it, including ETFs like XRPI and XRPR. On top of that, Ripple’s licensing push has strengthened the real-world payments narrative that institutions prefer. The firm’s stablecoin RLUSD secured approvals from Abu Dhabi’s FSRA and Dubai’s DFSA, while an expanded MPI license in Singapore deepened reach across APAC and MENA corridors. Combined, those moves position XRP within regulated payment and treasury channels rather than just speculative trading. For an ETF buyer, this gives you a dual story: you are holding XRPI/XRPR inside a fully regulated U.S. fund structure, tracking a token increasingly embedded in licensed payment networks in the Middle East and Asia. That contrasts with Bitcoin ETFs, where the narrative remains almost entirely macro-hedge and store-of-value, and with Ethereum ETFs, where heavy outflows in November–December (around $2 billion over two months, $564 million in December alone) show less conviction at this stage of the cycle.
Spot price action: XRP-USD reclaiming $2.10–$2.20 with rising volume
The underlying XRP-USD chart has shifted from defense to controlled offense. After falling about 15% in December to around $1.77, XRP has rebounded above the $2.05–$2.12 band. Spot trading in the latest session printed an intraday range around $2.06–$2.15, with a decisive push through the $2.10–$2.12 ceiling and intraday highs near $2.16 on some venues. Volume during that breakout ran ~48% above the prior 7-day average, confirming real participation rather than a thin squeeze. Market capitalization climbed to roughly $121.7 billion alongside that move. On the technical side, XRP cleared the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $2.08 and the pivot zone near $2.07, with momentum oscillators supporting the move: RSI(14) near 62–65, a rising structure; a shorter-term RSI(7) near 78–79, flashing overbought but consistent with a strong impulse; and a positive MACD histogram with the fast line above the signal line. Price is now consolidating above the prior resistance, trading roughly $2.13–$2.15, with the old cap acting as intraday support. For XRPI and XRPR, this spot behavior explains the sharp one-day jumps to $13.45 and $19.18 respectively: the ETFs are levered to both XRP’s price and the marginal buyer coming through the fund route.
Trend structure: falling wedge, Wyckoff reaccumulation and upside bands
From a higher-timeframe perspective, XRP has done the work needed for a continuation leg. The daily chart shows a multi-month falling wedge that formed as a corrective channel after highs around $3.66. Price printed sequential lower highs and lows inside a narrowing structure until early January 2026, when XRP finally broke through the wedge’s upper boundary near $2.05–$2.10. That breakout, coupled with improving RSI and MACD, is textbook bullish. Projection from that pattern puts an initial technical target in the $2.60–$2.70 area over the coming weeks—roughly 25% above the $2.10–$2.15 zone. The broader behavior fits a classic Wyckoff reaccumulation scheme rather than a topping distribution. The base near $1.20 in late 2024, the long mid-range congestion below $1.90–$2.00 through most of 2025, and the brief dip below $1.70 late in the year (a “spring” that shook out weak hands) all point to large players quietly absorbing supply. The current challenge of the $2.10–$2.15 “creek” resistance looks like a Jump Across The Creek phase; a sustained close well above that zone and then above the $2.22–$2.34 moving-average cluster (100-day EMA near $2.22, 200-day EMA around $2.34) would confirm transition into the markup phase. Targets from the full structure cluster in the $2.80–$3.20 band first, with more aggressive institutional projections outlining scenarios up to $7–$8 into 2026 if ETF flows and macro conditions align. For XRPI, a move in XRP from about $2.13 to $3.50 (+~65%) would imply indicative ETF levels stepping from $13.45 toward roughly $22 assuming tracking error and fees remain modest; XRPR would scale proportionally from $19.18 toward the low $30s under the same assumptions.
Derivatives and positioning: futures open interest and funding behavior
The derivatives layer confirms that speculative and hedging capital is slowly re-engaging with XRP-USD rather than fading the rally. Futures open interest has climbed from about $3.3 billion to $3.8 billion over a few sessions, after sitting closer to $3.6 billion only a day earlier. That increase in OI alongside rising price typically signals new longs entering the market rather than shorts getting blown out and closing positions. Funding metrics, while not spelled out tick-by-tick in your data, are clearly elevated enough to draw analyst attention and confirm that both retail and levered players are leaning into the long side. Importantly, this derivatives activity is building on top of ETF flows, not replacing them. That gives the XRPI/XRPR complex a healthier backdrop: long-term capital is locking in exposure via ETFs and spot, while futures provide liquidity and optionality without dominating the structure. If futures OI continues to grow toward and beyond the $4–5 billion range while spot volume and ETF inflows remain positive, upside tails for XRP strengthen and the odds of a violent downside liquidation cascade shrink, because structural buyers are already sitting in the base.
Spot liquidity, exchange balances and the squeeze potential
The most under-appreciated piece of the XRP story heading into 2026 is the supply profile. Exchange data shows that XRP balances on centralized platforms are at their lowest levels since 2018, even as intraday volumes spike—like the 47.6% jump versus 7-day average during the recent breakout through $2.10–$2.12. Simultaneously, ETF products have been absorbing supply at a steady tens of millions of dollars per week, with individual days like the recent $13.59 million inflow into U.S. XRP ETFs and cumulative December inflows of $483 million. This is complemented by on-chain behavioral data: long-term holders sold into the December weakness around $1.70–$1.80, yet aggregate XRP held on exchanges has kept trending lower as those coins moved into custody, ETF structures or cold storage rather than back onto order books. For XRPI and XRPR, this environment sets up a classic structural squeeze profile. Any acceleration in ETF allocations—say flows stepping from $43 million per week to $100+ million per week—would be hitting a market where the number of freely tradable coins is shrinking. Historically, combinations of falling exchange balances, rising ETF assets and growing derivatives open interest have preceded sharp, trend-aligned expansions in volatility.
Relative positioning versus Bitcoin and Ethereum: why institutions needed an XRP slot
The divergence in December and early January flows says a lot about how institutions are thinking at the product level. Bitcoin ETFs still anchor the store-of-value and macro-hedge sleeve, but they just came through a period of $1.09 billion in redemptions, mostly tied to year-end rotations and profit or tax management. Ethereum ETFs bled roughly $564 million in December on top of heavy November outflows, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about ETH’s role relative to rollup ecosystems and alternate L1s. XRP ETFs, in contrast, sat at the intersection of three things institutions care about: fresh regulatory clarity in the U.S., a new ETF wrapper that needed to be filled in strategic portfolios, and a narrative anchored in cross-border payments, stablecoin rails and banking infrastructure rather than purely monetary theory. XRP is not a direct substitute for Bitcoin in most mandates; it fills a separate “payments and financial plumbing” bucket. That’s why you see $1.3 billion rushing into XRPI/XRPR and peers over fifty days while Bitcoin and Ethereum products fluctuated. For allocators who want diversified crypto exposure, XRP became the obvious third pillar alongside BTC and ETH, not a side bet. If large platforms and distributors—like the move that opened XRP ETFs to tens of millions of retail brokerage clients—continue to expand access, the total addressable pool of capital available to XRPI/XRPR grows again without requiring any change in regulatory status.
Risk frame: what can go wrong for XRPI and XRPR holders
The setup is constructive, but the risk profile is not trivial. First, Bitcoin dominance near the high-50% range still matters: if BTC sharply corrects from the $92,000–$94,000 zone toward prior supports and drags the entire risk complex lower, XRP will not be immune, even with strong ETF flows. Second, XRP’s move from ~$1.70 to above $2.10 in a short window, plus daily spikes in XRPI from around $11–$12 to $13.45 and XRPR from the mid-teens to $19.18, leaves both ETFs vulnerable to a sentiment shake-out back toward support—roughly $2.00–$2.05 on XRP-USD, high $11s–low $12s on XRPI and the $17–$18 band on XRPR. Third, while regulatory clarity dramatically improved after the 2025 settlement, the sector still faces headline risk from future enforcement actions, political cycles and evolving global rules. Any renewed uncertainty around how banks, brokers or payment companies can use XRP would hit the narrative that supports institutional allocations. Finally, ETF fatigue is a real risk: if flows simply stall and sit flat around $1.3–$1.4 billion while price grinds sideways, the structural squeeze story weakens and XRPI/XRPR start to trade more like high-beta proxies on a range-bound XRP, rather than unique accumulation vehicles.
Investment stance on XRPI and XRPR: high-conviction Buy with volatility caveats
Putting all of this together – XRPI at $13.45, XRPR at $19.18, XRP-USD near $2.10–$2.30, roughly $1.3 billion in ETF inflows in fifty days, December’s $483 million of net buying while Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.09 billion, Ethereum ETFs saw $564 million out, exchange balances at multi-year lows, futures open interest climbing toward $3.8 billion, a clean wedge breakout through $2.05–$2.10, and medium-term technical targets clustered in the $2.60–$3.20 band with structural scenarios pointing higher – the risk-reward skew on the XRP ETF complex is clearly tilted to the upside. On the data you provided, my stance is Buy on both XRPI and XRPR, with the understanding that drawdowns back toward the $2.00 XRP-USD zone and corresponding pullbacks in the ETFs are highly likely along the path. The structural flows argue that dips toward prior support should be viewed as add zones, not exit points, as long as three conditions hold: weekly XRP ETF flows remain positive or at least flat; spot XRP continues to defend the $2.00–$2.05 band on closing bases; and exchange balances remain depressed rather than refilling. Under those conditions, a move in XRP-USD toward the $3.00–$3.50 range in 2026, with ETF prices roughly 50–70% above current levels, is a realistic bullish base case rather than an extreme outlier.
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