XRP ETF Flows – XRPI And XRPR Shadow $2.05 XRP-USD As 803.78M Tokens Lock In

XRP, XRPI, XRPR – ETF demand builds while price stalls around $2.05

Spot XRP-USD: 15% pullback, double-bottom at $2.04 and a crowded $2.00 support zone

XRP-USD has already done a full round trip in January. The token hit a year-to-date high near $2.41 on January 6 and then slid roughly 15% to about $2.05–$2.06, cutting market cap back to around $125 billion. Price has broken below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of that January leg higher and is now sitting just above a structural floor.
The four-hour chart shows a clean double-bottom around $2.03–$2.04 with a neckline near $2.188. That pattern usually signals a bullish reversal if price can close decisively above the neckline. Right now XRP-USD is stuck between that neckline and the local support. Short-term momentum is negative: price is trading under both the 50-EMA and 100-EMA and the Supertrend has flipped bearish, while the hourly chart has printed a death cross with the 50-hour MA dropping below the 200-hour MA.
The key line is clear: as long as XRP-USD holds above roughly $2.03, the double-bottom structure remains valid. A daily close under that level opens room down to the deeper 78.6% Fib retracement around $1.91, which is the next meaningful downside target. That is the technical risk the market is currently pricing.

XRPI and XRPR: XRP ETFs trading at $11.99 and $17.08 while 803.78M XRP is locked away

On the listed products, XRPI ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) last closed at $11.99, up $0.10 (0.84%) on the day, with after-hours trading ticking lower to $11.94 (-0.42%). The intraday range was $11.70–$12.04, versus a 52-week range of $10.44–$23.53, and average volume sits around 527.57K shares. At roughly $12, XRPI trades just above the lower end of its 12-month band despite spot XRP-USD holding above $2.00, which tells you how deep the previous drawdown was.
The XRPR ETF (BATS:XRPR) is priced higher per share and runs with lower turnover. It closed at $17.08, up $0.20 (1.18%), after trading in a $16.65–$17.08 range on the day. The 52-week band is $14.79–$25.99, with average volume of only 13.89K shares. Earlier data showed XRPR crossing $100 million in assets, and now it is one of the core issuers inside the broader XRP ETF complex.
Across issuers, on-chain and holdings data show about 803.78 million XRP now locked into ETF products and structured vehicles from managers such as Canary, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares and REX-Osprey, plus index exposure via multi-asset crypto funds. That block alone represents a large illiquid chunk of supply being taken off the open market and parked into long-horizon institutional wrappers.

ETF flow math: $56M weekly inflows, $1.52B in XRP ETF assets, only 1.2% of market cap so far

Flows are not theoretical; they are posting in real dollars. Spot XRP ETFs added about $56 million in net inflows last week, up from $38 million the previous week, a 47% acceleration in new money. Year-to-date, cumulative inflows are around $108 million, and total ETF assets have climbed to roughly $1.52 billion, equivalent to about 1.2% of XRP-USD market capitalization.
A 1.2% penetration rate is not impressive compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, where ETF and ETP products already represent roughly 6.5% and 5.4% of their respective market caps. The key point is structural: if XRP simply converges toward the ETF penetration of the two larger assets, funds would have to absorb several multiples of the current 803.78 million XRP balance. That is precisely why institutional desks are treating these flows as the start of a supply-compression story rather than the end of it.

Price structure for XRP-USD: $2.03 support, $2.19 neckline, $2.26 and $2.56 as upside gates

Short-term, $2.03–$2.05 is the battlefield. That is where the double-bottom has formed and where buyers have twice absorbed selling pressure following the drop from $2.41. Every test of that zone matters because a decisive break would invalidate the reversal setup and let momentum traders press toward the $1.91 Fib extension.
On the way up, there are several levels that matter. First is the $2.188–$2.19 neckline of the double-bottom. A strong move through that area on volume would signal that the bottoming attempt is working. Next overhead is the prior resistance region around $2.26, identified in previous pattern work as a cap for earlier rebounds. Above that sits the heavier $2.56 level, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and therefore carries far more weight for medium-term trend followers.
Practically, the market is setting up a binary sequence: hold $2.03 and a push toward $2.19–$2.26, then potentially $2.56, or lose $2.03 and accept a reset closer to $1.91. ETF inflows and regulatory headlines will determine which side wins that fight.

Regulation and licensing: UK, Luxembourg, U.S. banking charter and MiCA turn XRP into regulated payment plumbing

Fundamentals under the XRP story are not static. Ripple has layered a series of regulatory milestones that matter directly for ETF sponsors and banks. In the last stretch it secured licenses in the United Kingdom and Luxembourg, giving it explicit permission to run regulated digital-asset payment services in two key European hubs.
Those approvals sit on top of a banking charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which moves Ripple from “crypto startup” territory into the perimeter of supervised financial institutions in its home market. On the EU side, Ripple is also pursuing a CASP license under the MiCA regime, which is the European Union’s unified framework for crypto service providers.
For XRP ETFs like XRPI and XRPR, this matters for two reasons. First, compliance officers at large asset managers can justify exposure when the underlying network’s main operator has bank-grade supervision and EU-level authorizations. Second, payment companies and banks looking at XRP as a settlement rail in Europe now see a clearer regulatory path, which supports the narrative of XRP as real infrastructure rather than a pure trading chip.

Institutional scenarios: from 1.2% ETF penetration today to $4–$8B inflows and $8–$12.50 XRP targets

Street projections on XRP have converged around the ETF channel as the main upside driver. One large bank desk has floated a forward scenario where spot XRP ETFs reach between $4–$8 billion of assets in their first full year once approvals and distribution mature. With XRP-USD trading near $2.06, that scale of demand would represent a multiple of current ETF holdings and several percentage points of circulating supply.
On the price side, one institutional strategist has put a $12.50 target for XRP by 2028, framing it as a function of regulatory clarity, ETF adoption and positioning as a cross-border settlement asset. Another modeling framework argues that if XRP captures about 8% market share in a $5.7 trillion total crypto market, a move toward roughly $8 in the 2026 cycle is mathematically consistent with prior bull-market capital rotations.
The critical angle is relative value. At about $2.05–$2.06, XRP-USD trades at a fraction of the per-unit prices of Bitcoin or Ethereum, yet the ETF penetration into its market cap is only 1.2%, versus mid-single-digits for the larger names. If ETF inflows actually reach the $4–$8 billion range and the on-chain role of XRP in payments continues to expand, a repricing higher is a rational, not a speculative, outcome. That is the thesis feeding into whale positioning and ETF accumulation.

**Flows, stablecoins and DeFi: RLUSD, FXRP and wXRP reshape how demand hits XRP

The flows into XRP are no longer limited to spot exchanges. On the on-chain side, the Flare FXRP system has already built up more than $150 million in DeFi total value locked, representing holders who are wrapping XRP and putting it to work in yield strategies rather than parking it idle on centralized venues. That is effectively another liquidity sink reducing readily tradable supply.
A separate corporate player, Evernorth, has accumulated millions of XRP and is moving into the public markets through a SPAC process, with a business model built around generating regulated yield via validator operations and DeFi strategies on the XRP Ledger. That structure adds a listed proxy for long-only exposure and aligns corporate capital with the health of the XRP ecosystem.
At the same time, Ripple is rolling out its RLUSD stablecoin, which introduces a genuine internal competitor. If payment partners prefer tapping a Ripple-issued stable asset rather than XRP-USD itself, some transactional demand could migrate to RLUSD while XRP becomes more of a staking, collateral or “bridge” asset. The market is already discounting part of that risk: analysts have flagged the possibility that Ripple focuses more growth on RLUSD rails, using XRP primarily as a back-end liquidity instrument rather than the main client-facing token.
Despite that, network usage metrics show that XRP Ledger transaction volumes and address activity have increased while price has stayed in a relatively tight $2.05–$2.17 band. Historically, stretches where utility rises and price lags have preceded large repricings once the overhang from long-term holder selling clears. That pattern is exactly what ETF sponsors are betting on: let funds quietly absorb float while retail investors remain cautious.

Market structure: 803.78M ETF balance, zero-outflow streak and South Korean volume show who is really buying

The 803.78 million XRP now locked inside ETF and structured products is not just a nice round number; it interacts directly with how the market trades day to day. Persistent reports of no net outflow days across the ETF complex mean that issuers are either neutral or net buyers on most sessions. As long as that net-buy profile holds, any sustained selloff in XRP-USD has to be met with either reduced ETF creations or outright secondary-market selling, neither of which is visible yet.
Regionally, XRP has shown its ability to dominate retail turnover. In 2025 it was the most-traded crypto asset in South Korea, a market where retail participation is highly leveraged and sensitive to narrative shifts. Combining that with slow, grinding institutional accumulation via XRPI, XRPR and other products, the ownership profile is starting to bifurcate: funds and corporates steadily increase their share while shorter-term traders oscillate between fear and FOMO around the $2.00 handle.
That mix is important. When nearly a billion units are held by vehicles that do not trade intraday, the marginal price is set by a thinner float. If retail flows swing back toward XRP, price can move faster than in a world where all supply is freely circulating.

Risk map: where XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD can break and what would invalidate the bullish ETF story

For XRP-USD, the immediate technical risk is a clean break below roughly $2.03 with follow-through volume. That would kill the double-bottom and put $1.91 in play, which would likely drag XRPI back toward the low $11 region and XRPR into the mid-$15 area, assuming roughly stable discounts or premiums to net asset value. Such a move would not automatically destroy the ETF thesis, but it would delay it, as fund buyers would probably scale in more slowly after a failed pattern.
The larger risk is structural: if Ripple’s own ecosystem pivots too aggressively to RLUSD and other stablecoin rails, leaving XRP as a purely legacy bridge asset, the long-term multiple embedded in those $8–$12.50 targets becomes questionable. Another risk is regulatory: any reversal on banking or European permissions, or fresh enforcement pressure in the U.S., would cool the willingness of large issuers to keep adding XRP to their ETF shelves.
On the ETF side, very low turnover in XRPR (only around 13.89K shares per day) makes it more vulnerable to liquidity gaps during stress than XRPI with its 527K+ average volume. Investors using XRPR as their main vehicle are effectively accepting higher slippage in exchange for its structure and issuer. From a market-microstructure standpoint, XRPI currently looks like the cleaner institutional proxy for XRP-USD.

Verdict on XRP, XRPI and XRPR – stance: bullish / Buy with high volatility and clear invalidation levels

Taking the data together, the picture is not neutral. XRP-USD trades around $2.05–$2.06 with a visible double-bottom at $2.03–$2.04, weekly ETF inflows of $56 million, cumulative ETF assets of about $1.52 billion, and roughly 803.78 million XRP already ring-fenced inside XRPI, XRPR and their peers. Regulatory momentum in the UK, Luxembourg, the U.S. and under MiCA is positive, and institutional houses are openly modeling paths to $8 in 2026 and $12.50 by 2028 under reasonable ETF-penetration and market-share assumptions.
Against that, you have clear risks: the $2.03 technical floor, competition from Ripple’s own RLUSD stablecoin, long-term holder distribution and the possibility that macro risk-off squeezes crypto across the board. Those are not trivial, but they are defined.
On balance, the combination of rising regulated ETF ownership, real payment-system adoption, DeFi integration and still-modest ETF penetration versus Bitcoin and Ethereum supports a bullish / Buy stance on XRP-USD, with XRPI as the primary ETF expression and XRPR as a higher-beta, lower-liquidity alternative. The bullish view is valid as long as XRP-USD defends roughly $2.03 on closing basis and the ETF complex continues to post net inflows rather than sustained redemptions.

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