XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR: $11.06, $15.82 and the Fight to Hold $1.90 on XRP-USD

XRP ETFs XRPI & XRPR: price snapshot and drawdown

XRPI on Nasdaq trades around $11.06, down 2.86% on the session from a previous close at $11.38. The intraday range sits between $10.94–$11.14, against a 52-week corridor of $10.44–$23.53, with average daily volume near 541.96K shares. That places XRPI more than 50% below its yearly high, giving new capital entry closer to the bottom of the range than the top, but locking late-2025 buyers into deep drawdowns.

XRPR, the REX Osprey XRP ETF on BATS, trades near $15.82, down 2.94% versus a previous close at $16.30. Today’s trading band is roughly $15.69–$15.89, inside a 52-week range of $14.79–$25.99. That implies a drawdown of about 39–40% from the peak. Average daily volume is only about 12.70K shares, far below XRPI, which elevates execution risk and bid–ask slippage for size.

Both tickers are now tracking XRP-USD around $1.92, after repeated failures to hold above $2.00. XRPI and XRPR are therefore pricing an asset that has already spiked about 25% earlier in 2026 but is now stuck in consolidation instead of trending to new highs.

XRPI price, ranges and trading characteristics

For XRPI, the key numbers are the $10.94–$11.14 intraday range, the $10.44–$23.53 annual band, and average volume above 540K shares. Liquidity is sufficient for institutional tickets, and the current quote at $11.06 means investors are buying at only about 47% of the 52-week top. That discount reflects the unresolved correction in XRP-USD and offers potential upside torque if spot breaks out, but it also encodes the market’s skepticism after a failed attempt to sustain levels above $2 on the underlying.

XRPR price behaviour and liquidity constraints

XRPR’s structure is less liquid and more fragile intraday. At $15.82, against a 52-week high of $25.99, the ETF trades at roughly 61% of its peak. However, with just 12.70K shares changing hands on an average day, spreads can widen quickly when volatility rises. For investors, XRPI is the more practical execution vehicle; XRPR is a narrower, higher-friction route to the same XRP exposure, where entering or exiting size into weakness can move the tape.

XRP-USD spot context behind XRPI and XRPR moves

The core driver behind both ETFs is XRP-USD, now orbiting $1.90–$2.00. Earlier in the year, XRP pushed above $2 but could not convert that push into a sustained trend. Price then fell back toward $1.95, where it has been consolidating. That failed breakout followed by sideways action is exactly what you see in XRPI at $11.06 and XRPR at $15.82: both funds mirror a market that has seen strong interest but is still digesting speculative excess.

XRP-USD technical map: $1.90 support to $2.30 resistance

Technically, $1.90 in XRP-USD is a short-term pivot. Bulls have defended that level several times; below it, the next reference is Monday’s low near $1.85. On the upside, the structure is tiered. The first hurdle is the $2.00 psychological line. Above that, the 50-day EMA around $2.05, the 100-day EMA near $2.18, and the 200-day EMA close to $2.30 stack as resistance.

The MACD is still below its signal line on the daily chart, with a negative histogram, confirming that short-term momentum remains bearish. The RSI near 44 signals that selling pressure is easing but not yet reversed. A sustained move of RSI above 50 would be the first clear sign that the corrective phase is ending. Until that happens, XRPI and XRPR remain aligned with an asset trading closer to support than resistance but still inside a corrective channel.

On-chain holder behaviour: LTH-NUPL and accumulation signals

On-chain, the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) ratio for XRP has reset to around 0.39, a zone that historically tracks accumulation and local floors. Because LTH-NUPL considers coins held for at least 155 days, it filters out noise from short-term traders and focuses on conviction capital.

A rising LTH-NUPL from these levels usually indicates that long-term holders are adding on dips and allowing unrealized profits to rebuild rather than capitulating. That pattern supports the view that beneath XRPI’s and XRPR’s drawdowns, there is patient money that still believes XRP-USD has not yet completed its multi-year upside story.

Derivatives positioning: open interest reset and volatility

The derivatives layer adds nuance. XRP futures open interest has dropped from about $4.55 billion at the start of January to around $3.35–$3.38 billion. That is a meaningful reduction in leveraged exposure and implies that speculative traders have closed positions and de-risked. In parallel, selected venues show total open interest notional near $566 million, slightly above a rolling $529 million average, with realized volatility at highs not seen since November.

This combination – lower aggregated open interest than early January, but elevated realized volatility – points to a market where the most aggressive leverage has already been flushed out, yet price swings remain large. For XRPI and XRPR holders, that structure means the risk of cascading liquidations has eased, but daily price gaps can still be sharp.

Evolution of the XRP ETF ecosystem and issuer landscape

The XRP ETF story began with derivatives-based funds in early 2025. Providers like Teucrium and VolatilityShares launched futures and 2x leveraged products, later joined by ProShares and REX-Shares. These vehicles built the first regulated footprint for XRP exposure.

The first spot product was REX-Osprey’s XRPR in September 2025, using a 1940 Act structure in the U.S. Once generic spot listing standards were introduced, a second wave of 1933 Act spot ETFs followed: Canary XRPC, Bitwise XRP, Grayscale GXRP, Franklin XRPZ, and 21Shares TOXR.

Canary’s XRPC leads with about $374 million in assets, while the others cluster around $250 million+ each. Fees are mostly in the 30 bps range; XRPZ is temporarily cheaper at 19 bps due to waivers. XRPI and XRPR sit inside this cluster, offering another set of tickers for the same underlying exposure and competing on liquidity, branding and fee structure.

Flow dynamics: strong inflows, sharp outflows and what they imply

Flows into XRP ETFs have been powerful but unstable. On the positive side, XRP-linked products recently recorded roughly $69.5 million of net weekly inflows, even while many other crypto ETFs saw mixed or negative flows. On a specific day, XRP ETFs added around $7 million, with Bitwise bringing in over $5 million and Franklin’s XRPZ about $1 million.

Cumulatively, spot XRP ETFs have attracted around $1.23 billion in inflows, with net assets approximating $1.39 billion. XRP ETFs also quickly amassed more than $700 million after launch, signaling strong early demand. At another milestone, the complex passed $1 billion in fresh money, which is substantial for a non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum asset.

However, the flow pattern is not one-way. The first major outflow day came on January 7, with about $40.80 million leaving XRP funds. A second and larger event hit around January 20, with net outflows of approximately $53.32 million. That move was driven by Grayscale’s GXRP, which saw over $55.39 million redeemed, partially offset by $2.07 million of inflows into Franklin’s XRPZ.

XRPI and XRPR trade in the same ecosystem. Even when their own shares are not redeemed aggressively, big redemptions at a single issuer can pressure the XRP spot price and transmit losses across all spot funds. The flow picture therefore confirms a market where institutional capital is engaged, but ready to exit quickly when macro or sentiment turn.

Institutional versus retail participation around XRP exposure

The split between institutional and retail behavior is clear. XRP ETFs have drawn structural money from professional investors, as shown by the $1.23 billion in cumulative inflows and the $1.39 billion in net assets. Allocations are being made via regulated wrappers, custodial platforms and multi-asset portfolios.

Retail behaviour is much more risk-off. The crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping into extreme fear, together with the fall in futures open interest from $4.55 billion to around $3.35–$3.38 billion, reveals waning speculative enthusiasm. Many short-term traders have stepped aside after the failed attempt to hold above $2.

For XRPI and XRPR, this mix means that flows are dominated by institutions using ETFs as portfolio tools, while retail is less active. That often produces more stable positioning than pure retail mania, but it also implies that if institutional conviction deteriorates, selling pressure can be fast and sizey, as demonstrated by the large Grayscale outflow.

XRPL use cases: payments, tokenization and stablecoins

The fundamental thesis behind XRP-USD, and thereby XRPI and XRPR, is anchored in the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as a real-world infrastructure layer. XRPL is optimized for payments. It can process about 1,500 transactions per second, compared to roughly 3 TPS on Bitcoin, with settlement in about 3–5 seconds versus 500 seconds on Bitcoin. Fees are low, making high-frequency cross-border transfers and micro-payments viable.

XRPL is also central to the tokenization and stablecoin narrative. The ledger supports issued tokens that can represent fund units, private equity stakes and other assets. Franklin Templeton is issuing tokenized money market fund units on XRPL, integrating a mainstream cash product with XRP infrastructure.

On the ETF side, Amplify’s STBQ (Stablecoin Technology ETF) and TKNQ (Tokenization Technology ETF) both hold XRP ETFs as part of their exposure to the broader stablecoin and tokenization value chain. That puts XRPI/XRPR’s peer products directly into “picks and shovels” vehicles that are designed to capture secular growth in on-chain finance.

Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin has grown to about $1.4 billion in value, reinforced by the U.S. Genius Act which formalized the rules for issuing dollar-pegged tokens. The combination of regulatory frameworks and on-chain scale moves XRP away from a pure speculative asset and towards a financial plumbing role, which is critical to any long-term bull case for XRPI and XRPR.

Regulatory reset: SEC settlement, Genius Act and Clarity Act risk

For years, the main bear argument against XRP was regulatory uncertainty. That overhang eased when the SEC ended its lawsuit against Ripple in August 2025, with Ripple agreeing to a $50 million settlement and no admission of wrongdoing, and the SEC dropping its appeal. The market now values XRP as an asset with clearer legal status than during the litigation period.

On the legislative side, the Genius Act defined which entities can issue dollar-pegged stablecoins and under what conditions, triggering new interest from banks and fintech companies. That is supportive for XRPL’s role, RLUSD’s growth and the credibility of tokenized USD on the network.

The open risk is the Clarity Act. The current draft would classify all cryptocurrencies as securities by default, under SEC control, unless they can prove sufficient decentralization to fall under the CFTC. Coinbase withdrew its support for this draft, arguing it might be worse than the current regime, and the bill’s momentum has stalled. Ripple’s leadership supports progress toward a version that provides workable clarity, emphasizing that “clarity beats chaos”.

A favorable version of the Clarity Act would solidify the framework for XRP and its ETFs. An unfavourable one, or a regulatory reversal, would raise compliance costs and could dampen ETF demand. For XRPI and XRPR, this remains a central policy variable that investors must monitor.

XRP versus Bitcoin and Ethereum: role and market cap gap

Despite strong narratives and growing ETF adoption, XRP is still much smaller than Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market cap is above $1.7 trillion, while XRP sits near $115 billion and ranks as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. That size gap is why most professionals treat XRP as a satellite allocation rather than a core holding.

Against Ethereum, institutional forecasts for XRP are ambitious. One major bank projects XRP at $5.50 in 2025, $8.00 in 2026, $10.40 in 2027, and $12.50 by 2028 – roughly a 500% increase from around $1.92. The same roadmap suggests XRP could overtake Ethereum by 2028 as the second-largest non-stablecoin asset, while Bitcoin pushes toward roughly $500,000 and Avalanche (AVAX) potentially reaches $250 by 2029.

These scenarios assume:

Regulatory clarity continues to improve, not deteriorate.
Spot XRP ETF usage and inflows expand materially, potentially in the $4–8 billion range over the first full year after U.S. approval.
XRPL’s roles in cross-border payments, tokenization and stablecoins become central in institutional workflows.

For XRPI and XRPR, those numbers quantify the embedded upside optionality: if XRP-USD trades anywhere near $8–$12.50 by the end of the decade, the NAV of both ETFs would move accordingly, less fees and tracking drift.

Medium-term XRP-USD scenarios and implications for XRPI and XRPR

Six-month modelling for XRP-USD points to modest appreciation rather than a vertical breakout. Average scenario paths cluster between $2.00–$2.40 through mid-2026, with optimistic cases probing $2.75 if momentum improves later in the period. The stronger gains are skewed toward late Q2 and early Q3, assuming steady ETF flows, incremental regulatory clarity and consistent XRPL usage growth.

These forecasts are sensitive to market structure. They extrapolate from past behaviour and do not fully account for sudden liquidity events, regulatory surprises or macro shocks. Given XRP’s history of sharp spikes and drops around key levels, any smooth model likely understates tail risk.

Translating that into ETF levels, a six-month XRP range of $1.90–$2.75 puts XRPI roughly in a zone from just above $10 to the mid-teens, and XRPR somewhere between the mid-teens and low-20s, assuming normal tracking and no structural fund events. That is a wide band, but it reflects the volatility profile investors must accept.

Key risk factors for XRPI and XRPR investors

The first risk is simple price risk. A daily close in XRP-USD below $1.90 would bring $1.85 back into play and could trigger a deeper test of lower supports. XRPI at $11.06 and XRPR at $15.82 would then reprice lower in lockstep. With the underlying still below the 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, the market has not yet confirmed a new uptrend.

The second risk is flow risk. The outflows of $40.80 million on January 7 and $53.32 million on January 20 illustrate how quickly institutional money can exit. A series of similar episodes would compress liquidity, weigh on spot XRP-USD and pressure XRPI/XRPR quotes.

The third risk is liquidity and structure. XRPR’s average volume of 12.70K shares makes it vulnerable to spread widening and slippage during turbulent sessions. Any structural decision by an issuer to merge, close or repurpose a smaller fund would force investors to move or cash out, independent of their XRP thesis.

The fourth risk is regulatory reversal. A strict Clarity Act or equivalent framework that tightens oversight or restricts crypto activity could reduce ETF demand, increase operational costs or force structural changes in products like XRPI and XRPR.

Finally, there is ecosystem and value-capture risk. XRP’s low-fee architecture and smaller developer base versus some competitors could limit how much of the tokenization and payment stack’s value accrues to XRP itself, even if transaction counts grow strongly. If other platforms capture more value despite similar or lower usage, the investment case for XRP-USD, and thus XRPI/XRPR, weakens.

Final positioning view: XRPI and XRPR as speculative Buy or Hold

Considering price, flows, on-chain data, derivatives, fundamentals and policy, the current balance for XRPI and XRPR is as follows.

XRP-USD is holding the $1.90 support area but remains under all key medium-term EMAs and below the $2.00 psychological barrier. On-chain metrics such as LTH-NUPL at 0.39 point to accumulation by long-term holders. Futures open interest has reset from about $4.55B to $3.35–$3.38B, indicating the most aggressive leverage has been washed out.

ETF flows show real adoption: more than $700M raised shortly after launch, cumulative spot inflows around $1.23B, net assets near $1.39B, and several weeks where XRP ETFs outperformed broader crypto products in terms of flows. Regulatory risk has eased after the $50M SEC settlement, RLUSD has grown to roughly $1.4B, and key legislation like the Genius Act supports on-chain USD growth.

At the same time, retail sentiment is weak, the crypto complex is in extreme fear, and large outflow days demonstrate that institutional patience is not unlimited. Technicals still classify XRP-USD as corrective rather than trending.

On that basis, the stance for both XRPI and XRPR is:

XRPI / XRPR – Speculative Buy (high risk, satellite position)

For investors able to tolerate high volatility and potential drawdowns of 40–50%, current levels – XRPI at $11.06 versus a $23.53 high, and XRPR at $15.82 versus $25.99 – offer exposure at the lower half of the 52-week ranges, with structural ETF and XRPL fundamentals supporting a multi-year upside case that includes scenarios up to $8–$12.50 per XRP later in the decade.

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