XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR: Can $1B Inflows Lift XRP-USD From $1.93 Back Toward $3.66?

XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR: Flows Are Screaming Accumulation While Price Still Trades Like a Crash

XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR: Price Snapshot After a 45% Drawdown

 XRP-USD is trading around $1.90–$1.93 after dropping roughly 45% from the $3.66 peak in July 2025. That drawdown came after an October liquidation that wiped out about $610 million in XRP long positions and $90 million in shorts, part of a broader $1 trillion drawdown across the crypto market. Around 37% of XRP’s circulating supply now sits at an unrealized loss, with many buyers trapped above $3.00 and providing heavy overhead supply on every bounce. Against this backdrop, the two main XRP ETFs are trading near the lower part of their ranges while soaking up spot supply. XRPI (NASDAQ: XRPI), shown on-screen as “XRP ETF,” trades near $11.19, up 2.24% on the day from a previous close of $10.94, within a one-year range of $10.86–$23.53 on average volume of 563,000 shares. XRPR (BATS: XRPR, REX Osprey XRP ETF) trades at about $15.85, up 2.39% from a $15.48 previous close, with a 52-week range of $15.48–$25.99 and average volume of roughly 45,560 shares. Both XRPI and XRPR are effectively leveraged expressions of the same XRP-USD story: deep drawdown already realized, price pinned near range lows, while structural ETF demand continues to build underneath.

XRP-USD Technical Structure: EMAs, Trendlines and Key Levels

Technically, XRP-USD is still in a corrective downtrend. Price near $1.91 trades below the 50-day EMA around $2.19, the 100-day EMA near $2.37, and the 200-day EMA around $2.44, all three sloping downward and pressing from above. This keeps the bias negative until XRP can reclaim these moving averages. The MACD line sits just below zero, with the fast line under the signal line and red histogram bars extending below the mean, signaling weak but persistent downside momentum. RSI around 36.7 confirms pressure but not yet full capitulation. A descending trendline from the $3.09 lower high caps rallies, with first meaningful resistance in the $2.10–$2.11 area. A daily close above roughly $2.11 would signal a shift toward a corrective rebound toward the $2.35–$2.45 cluster around the 100- and 200-day EMAs. On the downside, a rising trendline from $1.45 offers support near $1.86. A decisive break below $1.86 exposes April’s low around $1.61 and risks extending the 45% drawdown further before any sustainable recovery attempt.

Derivatives Positioning: Open Interest Collapse After the $3.66 Peak

Futures positioning confirms that speculative leverage has largely been flushed. XRP futures Open Interest currently sits around $3.71 billion, slightly down from $3.72 billion the prior day and dramatically lower than the $10.94 billion OI peak reached on July 22, just after XRP printed the $3.66 high. That two-thirds collapse in OI shows that the excess leverage that fueled the parabolic run above $3.00 has already been unwound through liquidations and forced deleveraging. With much less leveraged fuel in the system, future price action will increasingly depend on spot flows and ETF demand rather than on perpetuals funding squeezes. This shift reduces the risk of another immediate blow-off but also means that rallies will rely on real capital, not synthetic leverage, which makes the ETF inflow data far more important than in prior cycles.

On-Chain Supply and Whale Behavior: 45% Exchange Balance Drop and $400M Profit-Taking

On-chain data supports the idea that XRP supply is tightening even as price trades heavy. Exchange balances have fallen from roughly 3.95 billion XRP to about 2.6 billion XRP over a 60-day window, a reduction of approximately 45% in liquid, exchange-held supply. That is a major structural shift: almost 1.35 billion XRP has moved off exchanges toward custody, long-term wallets, or ETF vaults. At the same time, whales already took significant profits. Around 200 million XRP – worth about $400 million at the time – was sold by large holders in late November 2025, locking in gains from the run that started at much lower levels. That selling coincided with the broader crypto drawdown and helped drag XRP-USD from the $2.50–$3.00 region closer to $2.00. Those realized sales are now behind the market, and the remaining large holders are sitting on older, deeper entries with less immediate pressure to exit at current prices around $1.90–$2.00. The net effect is less hot supply on exchanges and a larger chunk of XRP held by actors with a longer time horizon, which sets the stage for future upside if demand continues to build.

XRP ETF Engine: 21–30 Straight Inflow Days and $1.0–$1.18 Billion in Assets

The structural demand shift is clearest in the XRP ETF data. U.S. spot XRP ETFs, launched in mid-November 2025, have accumulated roughly $975 million to $1.0 billion in net inflows in under four weeks, pushing total net assets to about $1.12–$1.18 billion. These products have posted 21–30 consecutive trading days of net inflows since launch, with no outflow sessions in that stretch. Single-day contributions such as $10.89 million across Canary, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton highlight persistent allocator interest even when XRP-USD trades down 7–13% over the last month and about 36.7% over three months. This flow profile is very different from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, where recent days saw around $357.7 million in BTC ETF outflows and $224.8 million out of ETH ETFs as macro risk sentiment deteriorated. XRP ETFs have not mirrored those redemptions; they behave like slow, deliberate allocation tools instead of short-term trading vehicles. That points to structurally motivated capital rotating into regulated XRP exposure regardless of near-term price volatility.

XRPI and XRPR Pricing: ETF Proxies for a Deeply Corrected XRP-USD

The price of XRPI at $11.19 and XRPR at $15.85 reflects the 45% drawdown seen in XRP-USD and embeds large parts of the downside already. XRPI trades just above its 52-week low of $10.86 and far below the $23.53 high, while XRPR sits close to its $15.48 low and significantly under its $25.99 peak. Both ETFs gained around 2.2–2.4% on the day, with XRPI moving from a previous close of $10.94 and XRPR from $15.48, signaling buyers are starting to lean into weakness at these depressed levels. Liquidity differs: XRPI trades over 563,000 shares on average, making it suitable for mid-sized institutional trades, while XRPR’s roughly 45,560 average volume positions it more as a satellite exposure for specific strategies rather than a primary liquidity hub. Given the current discounts relative to their 52-week highs, a move in XRP-USD from roughly $2.00 back toward the $3.00–$3.66 zone would likely translate into 50–80% upside in XRPI and XRPR from present prices, adjusted for fees and tracking, while additional 10–15% downside in XRP would likely push these ETFs only modestly below their existing lows.

Institutional Access and Vanguard’s 50 Million Clients: Why the Wrapper Matters

The ETF wrapper is expanding the potential demand base far beyond traditional crypto users. Canary Capital’s XRPC led early activity with around $245 million in inflows, and major managers like Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Bitwise followed with their own XRP funds. The pivotal shift is Vanguard’s move to open XRP ETF access across its platform, theoretically touching up to 50 million clients. Vanguard historically avoided direct crypto exposure; its decision to list XRP ETFs on its rails turns XRPI, XRPR, and peers into instruments that retirement planners and conservative advisors can add without custody headaches or compliance ambiguity. That is the structural reason XRP ETFs gathered about $906 million in approximately 14 days, then crossed $1.0 billion in under four weeks, outpacing the early adoption speed of several BTC and ETH products. The wrapper – regulated, custodied, ETF-native – unlocks balance sheets that never used centralized crypto exchanges, and that is precisely the kind of capital that can sustain multi-year flows, not just speculative spikes.

Flows Versus Price: Why XRP Still Trades Heavy Despite 21–30 Days of ETF Buying

The main puzzle is why XRP-USD is still stuck near $1.90–$2.00, down 36.7% over three months, when XRP ETFs have logged 21–30 consecutive sessions of net inflows and nearly $1.0–1.18 billion in new money. First, macro conditions shifted to risk-off: rate expectations, weaker tech earnings momentum, and equity volatility pushed investors out of higher-beta assets. BTC and ETH ETFs showed this clearly with hundreds of millions in daily outflows; XRP, despite separate flows, still trades in the same macro risk bucket and gets hit in the same downdrafts. Second, the market is still working through heavy supply from investors who bought between $2.50 and $3.66 in the summer run. Every push toward $2.15–$2.45 unlocks trapped holders exiting at breakeven or small losses, creating structural resistance and keeping price capped even while ETFs buy. Third, while $1.0–1.18 billion in inflows is very strong for a new product suite, it is still digesting the prior speculative excess – $10.94 billion peak OI, $400 million whale selling, and the huge move from $0.63 in July 2024 to $3.66 in July 2025. Flows and price will not line up instantly; the flows are building a base while the market finishes cleaning up the old leverage.

Scenario Framework 2026: Bull, Base and Bear Paths for XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR

Looking ahead into 2026, the combined data on XRP-USD, XRPI, and XRPR splits into three realistic regimes. In a bullish path, daily ETF inflows hold closer to $40–50 million on strong days, cumulative inflows push well beyond the current $1.0–1.18 billion, and exchange balances fall further from 2.6 billion toward the 2.0–2.2 billion area as more XRP enters custody. XRP-USD holds above $2.00, breaks through $2.11, absorbs the $2.35–$2.45 resistance cluster, and starts trading in the mid-$2s. If macro conditions improve and whales stay largely sidelined on the sell side, XRP can eventually challenge $3.00 and re-approach the $3.66 peak by late 2026. In that scenario, XRPI could move from $11.19 back into the high teens or low $20s, and XRPR from $15.85 toward the low-mid $20s, echoing the underlying recovery. In a base case, ETF flows cool to $15–25 million per day, cumulative inflows continue but slower, and XRP remains range-bound between roughly $1.90 and $2.30. Support at $1.86 holds, resistance at $2.11–$2.30 repeatedly rejects breakouts, and exchange balances stabilize near current levels. XRPI then oscillates mostly between about $11 and $15, and XRPR between roughly $15.5 and $19, serving as a consolidation zone where long-term investors accumulate while short-term traders get chopped. In a bearish case, ETF inflows flatten or reverse, macro risk deteriorates further, and XRP loses the $1.86 support line, sliding toward $1.61 and possibly undershooting that level. Capitulation from holders who bought above $3.00 floods the market with supply just as ETF demand softens, and XRP spends several quarters rebuilding a base. Under that regime, XRPI can break below its $10.86 low, and XRPR can trade meaningfully under $15.50, forcing a full reset of the ETF narrative before a new upcycle.

Risk Profile: Concentration, Regulation and ETF Structure

Several risks sit directly on the XRP ETF story. Concentration risk is the first: Canary’s XRPC already controls a large share of XRP ETF assets (about $245 million early on), so one manager’s flows can swing the net picture rapidly. If that fund’s clients rotate out, the 21–30 day inflow streak can end abruptly. Regulatory risk is the second pillar. Today’s environment benefits from U.S. court decisions and SEC approvals that treat XRP as suitable for spot ETFs; any legal reversal, aggressive enforcement move, or reclassification would immediately hit ETF valuations and secondary-market liquidity, regardless of current AUM. Structural risk is the third. If Steingraber’s 100 million XRP minimum and 1 billion XRP mid-tier estimates become reality across 20+ funds, tens of billions of XRP could end up locked inside regulated products. That scarcity is bullish while inflows are positive, but it also means that forced selling or large redemptions from one or two major funds could overwhelm the thinner exchange books on the way down. Investors in XRPI, XRPR, and XRP-USD must treat these dynamics as core to the thesis, not background noise.

Strategic View: XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR as a Size-Controlled Bullish Bet

With XRP-USD down about 45% from its $3.66 high to around $1.90–$2.00, futures Open Interest cut from roughly $10.94 billion to $3.71 billion, exchange balances reduced from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion XRP, and U.S. spot XRP ETFs accumulating around $1.0–1.18 billion in 21–30 consecutive days of net inflows, the market has taken significant damage but is now backed by a growing institutional base. Technically, XRP-USD is still below key EMAs at $2.19, $2.37, and $2.44 and carries downside risk toward $1.61 if $1.86 fails, so this is not a low-volatility setup. But structurally, the combination of shrinking float, consistent ETF demand, and expanding access through platforms like Vanguard tilts the medium-term balance toward recovery rather than collapse, provided macro conditions don’t deteriorate dramatically. Under these conditions, XRPI at $11.19 and XRPR at $15.85 line up as speculative Buy vehicles for exposure to an XRP-USD recovery, with the clear caveat that position size must respect the volatility and the possibility of another leg down into the $1.60s before any eventual run back toward the $3.00–$3.66 band.

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