XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Slides to $1.35 as Futures Open Interest Collapses to $2.30 Billion

XRP Price Forecast: Ripple Slides to $1.35 as Futures Open Interest Hits January 2025 Lows, ETF Speculation Intensifies, and a Bearish Trendline at $1.41 Holds the Key to March Direction

XRP-USD is bleeding on Friday, down 3.7% over the past 24 hours to $1.3530, making it the worst-performing major cryptocurrency on the day and the only top asset in the red on a seven-day basis at -0.1%. That underperformance is striking given what happened elsewhere this week: Cardano (ADA) gained 7% over seven days, Solana (SOL) added 5.5%, Ethereum (ETH) climbed 4.8%, and BNB advanced 4.3%. Even Bitcoin (BTC), which barely moved, held a 0.6% weekly gain. XRP absorbed the same macro headwinds — scorching January PPI at 0.8% core, a 715-point Dow collapse, failed U.S.-Iran nuclear talks — and gave back its entire weekly rally. The price surged from a Tuesday low of $1.3125 to a Wednesday high of $1.4936, then reversed and is now sitting at $1.35, barely above where the week started. That kind of round-trip in 72 hours, while every other major crypto holds gains, is a signal that deserves serious attention.

The fundamental picture is split down the middle. Ripple is actively expanding its ecosystem with a new builder funding model, cross-border payment corridor integrations, and the FinTech Builder Program targeting institutional-grade products on the XRP Ledger. ETF speculation continues to build as asset managers engage with regulators on spot XRP exchange-traded products. Large wallet accumulation ticked higher during the week. But derivatives data tells a darker story: futures open interest has collapsed to $2.30 billion — the lowest since January 2025, down from a record $10.94 billion when XRP hit its all-time high of $3.66 in July. The retail appetite that drove the parabolic move to $3.66 has evaporated. Until it returns, rallies are short-covering events, not trend reversals.

XRP-USD Weekly Price Action — The $1.31-to-$1.49 Round Trip and What It Reveals

The week's price action was a microcosm of XRP's broader structural problem. Tuesday's low of $1.3125 marked the bottom of a selling cascade that began when Bitcoin failed at $70,000 and equities rolled over on the Nvidia post-earnings selloff. XRP's high-beta nature amplified the move — the token dropped faster and harder than BTC or ETH on the way down. Then came the reversal: by Wednesday, XRP had surged to $1.4936, driven by a combination of short-covering, renewed ETF speculation, and positive sentiment around Ripple's regulatory trajectory. The $1.49 level sits just below this year's descending trendline, which has capped every rally since January.

And that's where the story ended. XRP failed to close above $1.4923 on a daily basis — the February 25th high that also functions as the trendline intersection — and immediately reversed. The descent from $1.49 to $1.35 took less than 48 hours. The Fibonacci retracement of the $1.3125-to-$1.4936 swing shows the 50% level at roughly $1.40 already broken, with the 61.8% retracement at $1.3820 now acting as the immediate battleground. A close below $1.3820 would signal the entire recovery attempt has failed and reopen the path toward $1.3125 and potentially the early February trough at $1.1188.

Futures Open Interest Collapses to $2.30 Billion — The Retail Exodus From XRP

The derivatives market is sending an unambiguous warning. XRP futures open interest dropped to $2.30 billion on Friday from $2.35 billion the prior session, continuing a persistent decline that has taken OI from a record $10.94 billion at the July all-time high to its current level — the lowest reading since January 2025. The decline represents a 79% collapse in open interest from peak to trough.

Falling open interest in a declining price environment signals liquidation and capitulation. Positions are being closed, not opened. The marginal participant in XRP derivatives is exiting, not entering. This is the opposite of what a healthy market structure looks like heading into a potential rally. For the Wednesday spike to $1.49 to have been sustainable, it needed to be accompanied by rising OI — new money entering the market and establishing fresh long positions. Instead, OI continued to shrink, confirming the rally was driven by short-covering (existing shorts closing) rather than genuine new demand. Short-covering rallies are inherently limited in duration and magnitude because they consume their own fuel: once the shorts are covered, there's nobody left to buy.

The contrast with the July peak is instructive. At $10.94 billion in OI and a price of $3.66, the market was saturated with leveraged long exposure, making it fragile to the downside. At $2.30 billion and $1.35, the market has been largely deleveraged — which reduces the risk of a cascading liquidation event but also removes the amplification mechanism that produces parabolic rallies. XRP needs a fundamental catalyst significant enough to attract billions in new capital before it can mount a sustained recovery. Incremental regulatory optimism and ecosystem announcements don't move that needle.

Ripple's 2026 Builder Funding Model — Ecosystem Expansion Without Price Impact

Ripple announced a shift in its builder funding strategy for 2026, moving toward a distributed model where independent organizations, venture partners, regional hubs, and community-led initiatives provide support to developers at scale. The FinTech Builder Program targets startups building institutional-grade financial products on the XRP Ledger across stablecoin payments, credit infrastructure, tokenization, and regulated financial services. Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin integration and continued expansion into cross-border payment corridors with financial institutions in emerging markets add incremental utility to the XRPL ecosystem.

These are legitimate developments that strengthen XRP's long-term fundamental case. The problem is that ecosystem announcements have never been reliable price catalysts for XRP. The token's price has historically been driven by three factors: Bitcoin's direction, regulatory developments (particularly the SEC case), and speculative retail flows. Ecosystem growth operates on a multi-year timeline that doesn't translate into short-term buying pressure. The builder funding restructure is a positive signal for the XRPL's future — but it's not going to push XRP from $1.35 to $2.00.

ETF Speculation Intensifies — The One Catalyst That Could Change Everything for XRP

The most potent near-term catalyst remains the possibility of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund. Reports of continued engagement between asset managers and U.S. regulators, alongside fresh filings and amendments, have reinforced the narrative that XRP could eventually follow Bitcoin and Ethereum into the ETF ecosystem. No definitive approval has been announced, but the perception of progress has been enough to attract capital during bullish windows — as evidenced by the inflow sessions earlier this week that were the strongest in weeks for XRP-linked investment products.

A spot XRP ETF would be transformative. It would open a direct, regulated channel for institutional capital that currently cannot access XRP through traditional brokerage accounts. Bitcoin's spot ETF launch in early 2024 triggered tens of billions in cumulative inflows and was the primary driver of BTC's move from $40,000 to $70,000+. An XRP ETF wouldn't generate flows of that magnitude immediately, but even a fraction of the Bitcoin ETF inflow — say $2-5 billion in the first quarter — would have an outsized impact on a token with XRP's market cap and liquidity profile.

The risk is timing. ETF approvals are regulatory decisions with unpredictable timelines. The market has been pricing in ETF optimism for months, and each week without a definitive announcement erodes the speculative premium. If the approval comes, XRP re-rates violently higher. If it doesn't come — or worse, gets formally rejected — the token has significant downside from levels that already partially reflect ETF expectations.

XRP Technical Analysis — Bearish Below $1.4923, Bullish Only Above the Descending Trendline

The technical structure is bearish on every meaningful timeframe. On the daily chart, XRP trades well below the 50-day EMA at $1.62, the 100-day EMA at $1.83, and the 200-day EMA at $2.06. All three moving averages are sloping lower, confirming the broader downtrend remains firmly in control. The RSI at 40 sits below the neutral 50 line, indicating oversold conditions within a downtrend — not a buy signal, but a measure of persistent selling pressure. The MACD holds above its signal line with green histogram bars, but those bars are contracting, suggesting what little bullish momentum existed from the mid-week bounce is already fading.

On the hourly chart, a bearish trendline has formed with resistance at $1.410. The price is trading just above the 100-hourly SMA near $1.40. The Fibonacci structure from the $1.3125 low to the $1.4936 high places the 61.8% retracement at $1.3820 — the critical near-term support. A break below $1.3820 exposes $1.3430, then $1.3250, then $1.3120 (the weekly low).

Key Levels for March Positioning

Resistance: $1.40 (hourly SMA and psychological) → $1.410 (bearish trendline) → $1.420 → $1.450 → $1.4923 (February 25th high and descending yearly trendline) → $1.50 (psychological) → $1.5082-$1.5406 (late January low and Feb 6 high cluster) → $1.520 → $1.550 → $1.62 (50-day EMA) → $1.6698 (February 15 high) → $1.6778 (February 1 high) → $1.83 (100-day EMA) → $2.06 (200-day EMA).

Support: $1.3820 (61.8% Fib retracement) → $1.3477-$1.3430 (mid-February to weekly lows) → $1.3250 → $1.3125 (this week's low and critical pivot) → $1.1188 (early February trough).

The medium-term outlook stays bearish as long as XRP trades below the February 15th high of $1.6698. The short-term outlook flips bullish only above $1.4923 on a daily closing basis — a move that would break both the February 25th rejection level and the descending yearly trendline. Until that breakout occurs, every rally is a selling opportunity within a confirmed downtrend.

The Broader Crypto Context — XRP Lags While Altcoins Rally

XRP's underperformance relative to the altcoin complex is impossible to ignore. In a week where Cardano gained 7%, Solana 5.5%, and Ethereum 4.8%, XRP posted a -0.1% return. This divergence breaks the historical pattern where XRP lags during early-phase recoveries and then outperforms once confidence spreads — instead, confidence spread across every other major alt, and XRP still couldn't hold gains.

Bitcoin at $65,534 (-1.34%) continues to trade rangebound between $65,000 and $70,000. Ethereum at $1,928 (-2.53%) struggles with its own bearish divergence issues. Solana at $81.65 (-3.52%) pulled back alongside the broader market. BNB holds $610.66 (-0.50%). Cardano at $0.2778 (-2.06%) gave back some of its 7% weekly gain. The CoinDesk 20 Index registered broad losses. The market-wide de-risking is driven by macro factors — hot PPI data, failed Iran negotiations, Nvidia's post-earnings unwind — rather than crypto-specific catalysts. But within that de-risking, XRP is absorbing more selling pressure than its peers, which signals either weaker hands in the holder base or a market that doesn't believe the near-term fundamental story.

Asian equity markets are on track for their best February since 1998, with South Korean tech names up roughly 20% as capital rotates into AI infrastructure plays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is set to outperform the S&P 500 for a third consecutive month. That rotation away from U.S. assets creates a mixed environment for crypto: it weakens the dollar (potentially supportive) but also draws risk capital away from speculative assets like XRP (negative). The net effect has been suppressive for XRP specifically, even as broader crypto holds relatively firm.

Large Wallet Accumulation vs. Retail Exit — The Two Faces of XRP Demand

On-chain data presents a split picture. Large wallet accumulation increased during the mid-week rally, with whales adding exposure during the bullish reversal rather than distributing into strength. Exchange balances didn't spike, meaning the rally wasn't met with heavy profit-taking from long-term holders. This suggests that smart money views the $1.31-$1.35 zone as accumulation territory.

But retail tells the opposite story. The collapse in futures OI from $10.94 billion to $2.30 billion is almost entirely a retail phenomenon — institutional and large-scale participants typically use spot accumulation, not perpetual futures. The retail traders who drove XRP from $0.50 to $3.66 are gone. They're not coming back on ecosystem announcements or incremental ETF speculation. They come back on FOMO — and FOMO requires a price that's already moving higher with visible momentum. XRP needs to get above $1.50 and hold it for more than 24 hours before the retail bid returns. Until then, the buy-side is limited to patient accumulators and short-term speculators.

The Verdict — XRP Is a Hold Below $1.50, a Buy Only on Confirmed Breakout Above the Trendline

XRP at $1.35 sits in a no-man's land between genuine structural value and a deteriorating market structure. The long-term case — ETF potential, XRPL ecosystem growth, cross-border payment utility, Ripple's regulatory progress — is intact and arguably stronger than at any point in the token's history. The short-term case is terrible: declining futures OI at 13-month lows, a failed rally from $1.31 to $1.49 that round-tripped in 48 hours, bearish divergence across daily momentum indicators, price below all major moving averages, and underperformance relative to every peer in the top 10.

Hold existing XRP positions if the cost basis is below $1.30. There's no reason to sell into a 63% drawdown from the $3.66 all-time high at a level where whales are accumulating and the ETF catalyst could materialize at any point. But adding fresh capital at $1.35 carries poor risk-reward within the current downtrend.

Buy on a confirmed daily close above $1.4923 — the level that would break the descending yearly trendline, trigger short-covering, and signal the first higher high on the daily chart since the downtrend began. Above $1.50, target $1.54, then $1.62 (50-day EMA), then $1.67. The cup-and-handle structure in the broader crypto market and the ETF narrative provide the potential fuel for a move of that magnitude.

Sell on a break below $1.3125. That level is the weekly low and the floor of the current range. Losing it would confirm that the $1.31-$1.49 bounce was nothing more than a dead cat, and the path to the early February trough at $1.1188 opens — a further 17% decline from current levels. Stop-loss discipline below $1.31 is non-negotiable for any position initiated above $1.30.

The honest assessment: XRP needs a binary catalyst — an ETF approval, a definitive regulatory milestone, or a Bitcoin breakout above $70,000 that drags the entire market higher — to escape this range. Without it, the token drifts lower as OI continues to contract and retail attention migrates elsewhere. Patience is the right posture. The setup will come. March's Fed meeting, potential ETF developments, and Bitcoin's own technical resolution will provide the triggers. Buying at $1.35 without those catalysts in hand is premature. Wait for $1.50 or $1.31 — one of those levels will break first, and the trade presents itself clearly on either side.

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