XRP Price Forecast: Can XRP-USD Price $1.64 Hold Before a Run Toward $2.50–$3.00?

XRP-USD Price Structure and Context

XRP-USD Trading Range and Correlation With Macro Risk-Off

XRP-USD is trading around $1.89–$1.92, down roughly 1.8–2.0% on the day and more than 40% below the July high near $3.20. Price has spent the last month trapped between local support around $1.90 and resistance at $2.20–$2.30, after repeatedly failing to hold the $2.00 level as support. This correction is happening while Bitcoin whipsaws between $87,000 and $90,000, AI-heavy equities like Nvidia, Broadcom and Oracle drop 3–6%, and the Nasdaq trades lower. Crypto is trading as a high-beta extension of a broader risk-off move, not in isolation.

XRP-USD Spot ETF Engine and Structural Inflows

Spot XRP ETFs have accumulated over $1.01 billion in net inflows in roughly their first 30 days, bringing combined ETF assets to about $1.16 billion. A first-mover “Canary” XRP ETF holds around $330 million, the 21Shares XRP ETF has already reached ~$231 million in less than a week, Grayscale and Bitwise vehicles each control over $200 million, and Franklin Templeton manages about $180 million. Despite this, ETF exposure represents only 0.98% of XRP’s total market capitalization, versus 5%+ ETF penetration for Bitcoin and Ethereum, leaving substantial headroom for further institutional accumulation. These flows are supported by fundamental catalysts: a US OCC bank license linked to the Ripple stack, expansion of the RLUSD stablecoin, and a Citadel-backed ~$40 billion valuation for a Ripple-related entity, all of which hard-wire XRP deeper into regulated financial infrastructure.

Pattern Map for XRP-USD: Double Bottom, Inverted H&S and Momentum Divergence

On the 12-hour chart, XRP-USD is sitting just above the key $1.8140 region, which has already produced a double-bottom reaction and defines the floor of the current corrective structure. Around that base, price action has carved an inverted head-and-shoulders formation: left shoulder near $1.90–$2.00, head around $1.81–$1.82, and a developing right shoulder slightly above $1.90. The neckline is a descending trendline connecting swing highs since October 28, so the breakout trigger is a decisive close above that line with volume. At the same time, MACD has turned higher while price made marginal new lows, producing a bullish momentum divergence that typically marks late-stage exhaustion in a down leg. Against that constructive micro-structure, a November death cross on the daily chart still defines the move as a downtrend until $2.20–$2.30 is reclaimed and the short-term average turns back up over the longer one.

Wave Structure and Key Levels for XRP-USD

From a wave perspective, XRP-USD looks like it is moving through the last phase of a corrective sequence rather than starting a fresh structural bear leg. Current trading around $1.89–$1.92 fits as subwave 3 to the downside, with a first potential support near $1.73 and a primary downside magnet at $1.64, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance. There is a deeper “golden pocket” risk band around $1.54, but the higher-probability scenario treats $1.64 as the terminal low for this structure, with $1.73 acting more as an interim reaction zone. The move is tightly linked to BTC: the preferred path has Bitcoin flushing toward $79,000 while XRP-USD tags the $1.64 region, with a more extreme tail risk involving BTC testing $64,000 and XRP probing down into the $1.54–$1.61 corridor. From the expected $1.64 base, the upside leg projects into the $2.41–$3.00 band, with some models allowing a sharp squeeze into that range shortly after the low is printed, assuming macro tape doesn’t deteriorate further.

Macro and Policy Pressure on XRP-USD

The micro-bullish structure is forming against a macro environment that is openly hostile to high-beta risk. The US Senate Banking Committee has pushed work on a long-awaited crypto market structure bill into early 2026, after failing to deliver a bipartisan deal before year-end, leaving unresolved questions around financial stability, market integrity, and conduct standards for key venues. The 2026 calendar is already congested with funding fights and midterm elections, which can push crypto legislation even further back. On the charts, BTC carries a daily death cross and is targeting the $74,000 area as a 2025 low, ETH-USD trades around $2,850–$2,950 with downside projections to $2,200 and potentially $1,400, and XRP-USD is pinned below its $2.20–$2.30 resistance zone under its own death cross. The net result is a structurally constructive XRP-USD story—ETF flows, licensing, stablecoin growth—being expressed inside a short-term macro regime that punishes every failed breakout and rewards selling strength.

Downside Risk Zones and Invalidations for XRP-USD

From here, the downside hierarchy is clear for XRP-USD. Immediate local support sits around $1.92–$1.90; losing that band signals that the market is not done with the corrective leg. The next structural pivot is $1.8140, the double-bottom floor and base of the inverted head-and-shoulders. A sustained break there—confirmed by daily closes and follow-through—would invalidate the clean bullish reversal structure. Below that, $1.73 offers a softer demand pocket, but it is not strong enough to be treated as the primary end-of-wave low. The $1.64 area is the core downside target and the key line the bullish camp expects to defend, with $1.61 (April low) as a closely aligned reinforcement level. A deeper overshoot into $1.54 falls into capitulation risk rather than base case. Finally, $1.25, the origin of the October flash crash and a 2024 reference low, only comes into play if macro conditions collapse more sharply than currently priced. From today’s $1.90 region, a move to $1.64 implies around –13–14% downside, while a flush to $1.25 would imply about –34%, defining the volatility band any position must be sized to survive.

Upside Roadmap and Objectives for XRP-USD

On the upside, XRP-USD needs to clear a sequence of levels to confirm that the corrective phase is over. First, it must decisively regain and hold $2.00 as support; the last failure at this line triggered the current slide. Next, bulls must break and sustain above $2.20–$2.30, which caps the month-long consolidation and coincides with the 50-day moving average. A strong close through that zone on robust volume would neutralize the death-cross narrative and tell the market that ETF demand and structural flows are finally absorbing macro selling pressure. From there, the next technical objective lies in the $2.41–$2.50 region, where multiple measured moves and extensions converge. At current prices, a move to $2.50 represents roughly +32% upside. The higher band around $3.00, near the July peak region, implies about +58–60% appreciation from $1.90. ETF penetration is the wild card: with $1.16 billion in XRP ETFs equal to only 0.98% of market cap, simply moving toward Bitcoin/Ethereum’s 5%+ ETF ratio would mechanically require several additional billions of dollars in demand over time, supporting these upside targets.

XRP-USD Stance: High-Volatility Buy With a $1.64 Risk Line

Taking all factors together—ETF flows, regulatory positioning, momentum structure, pattern map and macro backdrop—XRP-USD screens as a high-volatility Buy, not a safe Hold and not a Sell. Price around $1.89–$1.92 is already more than 40% below the July area near $3.20, spot ETFs have driven $1.01B+ of inflows in a month on a still-small 0.98% ownership ratio, and structural catalysts (OCC bank license, RLUSD, $40B institutional valuation) all push in the same direction: deeper integration of XRP into regulated finance. The current wave structure points to a primary downside target at $1.64 with support stacking at $1.8140, $1.73 and $1.61, against upside bands at $2.20–$2.30, $2.50 and $3.00. That leaves you with a base-case –13–14% drawdown to $1.64, a tail-risk –34% wash to $1.25, and plausible upside of +32–60% toward $2.50–$3.00 if the reversal completes and ETF demand continues to build. For investors who can tolerate sharp swings and treat $1.64 (backstopped by $1.54–$1.61) as the risk boundary, XRP-USD justifies a bullish, conviction-level positioning rather than a neutral stance.

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