SEC’s ETF Review Fuels XRP Revival at $2.29—Is This the Beginning of the Breakout?
Ripple’s native token, XRP-USD, is holding ground at $2.29, marking a shallow decline of 0.47% daily and 3.72% weekly, but technical analysts aren’t calling this a breakdown. Instead, they see the current low volatility as a consolidation phase before an explosive move. Volume is down 1.01% to $2.1 billion, yet rather than panic, traders are positioning for a breakout.
The SEC’s formal review of WisdomTree’s spot XRP ETF has reawakened the bulls. Polymarket data places approval odds at 84% by year-end 2025. That’s not mere speculation—this represents a concrete step toward institutional adoption of XRP, a key shift from the legal headwinds that plagued the token for years.
Legal Clarity Returns: Ripple’s Fight with the SEC Nears Resolution
Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC is approaching a climax, and the tide appears to favor Ripple. A 2023 court ruling already established that XRP is not inherently a security, giving Ripple a legal edge. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, has urged Congress to step in with new crypto guidelines, suggesting that this regulatory limbo shouldn’t be dictated by litigation alone.
The lawsuit’s nearing conclusion has pushed XRP back onto major exchanges, triggering a 59% six-month rally, and helping it reclaim a top-five spot by market cap—now at $134.5 billion. The boost in confidence is translating directly into price activity.
Chart Signals Align: From $2.17 Support to $3.87 Target
Technically, XRP is tracing a bullish falling wedge, with support at $2.17 and resistance lining up at $2.42, $2.80, $3.00, and the January peak of $3.40. Beyond that, a final wave could stretch to $3.87 if momentum confirms.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lifted from 31 to 47, and currently reads 50—still neutral but sloping upward. The MACD, though negative, shows flattening red histogram bars, indicating that bearish momentum is fading fast. If XRP breaks $2.42, the next upside levels could be $2.952, $3.3967, and finally $3.8767, offering over 100% upside from the current range.
Macro Catalysts: ETF Optimism, Real-World Adoption, and Dubai’s $16B Bet
While the ETF saga grabs headlines, real-world adoption may be the true price engine. In a high-impact move, Dubai’s government has partnered with fintech firm Prypco Mint to tokenize real estate using the XRP Ledger. Their goal? $16 billion in real estate tokenized by 2033. This development isn’t speculative—it’s a working use case being built on XRP today.
Meanwhile, Emily Clarke from Digital Asset Management says the SEC’s tone is softening, suggesting approval pathways are emerging not just for XRP but for crypto ETFs broadly. Even without immediate approval, the progress itself is institutional validation.
Can XRP Reach $27—or Even $50? A Look at the Market Cap Math
Crypto analyst EGRAG sees something bigger than $3.87. His long-term chart identifies a W-shaped market cap formation—a historically reliable pattern for XRP that points toward a breakout cycle. If XRP follows historical behavior, his models predict price targets based on market cap expansion ranging between:
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$270 billion → traditional Fibonacci model
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$450 billion → +242% growth
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$978 billion → mid-tier logarithmic model
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$1.5 trillion → full-scale logarithmic expansion
Given the circulating supply of 58.68 billion XRP, that puts the projected token price between $27 and $50 in a full bull cycle. This forecast assumes favorable regulation and institutional participation, but it’s backed by hard math—not empty hype.
XRP vs. Solana: Who Wins the $100,000 Altcoin Allocation?
XRP and Solana (SOL) are in direct competition for both retail and institutional attention. Legendary trader Peter Brandt recently sparked a debate by asking which token traders would pick for a $100,000 allocation. While Solana is favored by short-term speculators and meme coin traders, XRP stands out for utility, cross-border remittance capability, and lower correlation to Bitcoin (0.49 vs. Solana’s 0.94).
Those looking for long-term asymmetric upside are leaning toward XRP. It’s less volatile, better integrated into traditional finance, and now re-listed on major exchanges with the SEC legal risk dramatically reduced.
Verdict: Is XRP a Buy, Hold, or Sell at $2.29?
With a strong technical setup, a softening regulatory climate, a real-world utility expansion, and bullish long-term projections, XRP-USD at $2.29 is a BUY.
This is not a meme coin surge—it’s the combination of legal clarity, ETF legitimacy, macro adoption, and chart confirmation. The next levels to watch are $2.42, $3.00, $3.87, and ultimately $5.01.
If the $1.5 trillion market cap thesis holds, $50 XRP is mathematically plausible—not fantasy.
