XRP Price Forecast: Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces Make-or-Break Moment Below $2.15

XRP-USD Faces Pressure Below $2.00 Despite Interoperability Momentum

Technical Breakdown Suggests Bearish Momentum May Intensify

Ripple (XRP-USD) continues its descent after failing to clear resistance at $2.23, marking its third consecutive day of losses and trading at around $2.08 on Friday. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows red histogram bars below the zero line, confirming a strong bearish bias. XRP has slipped below its 50-period EMA at $2.13, 100-period EMA at $2.15, and 200-period EMA at $2.18, suggesting sustained selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also trends toward oversold territory, putting downside targets of $2.00, $1.90, and $1.80 in sharp focus.

Symmetrical Triangle Structure Points to Volatility Explosion

XRP is currently compressed within a symmetrical triangle between $2.00 and $2.40, forming over the past 334 days. Historical data shows that such formations typically resolve between 75–95% of their lifespan. Analysts project a likely breakout between early July and mid-September, with August cited as the “sweet spot.” A break above $2.40 could initiate a powerful rally targeting Fibonacci extensions at $8.00, $14.00, and potentially $27.00, echoing XRP’s parabolic rise from $0.02 to $3.84 during the 2017 cycle.

Wormhole Partnership Expands Ripple’s Multi-Chain Interoperability

Ripple’s integration with Wormhole, supporting over 35 blockchains and 200 dApps, links the XRPL mainnet and the EVM sidechain to leading DeFi ecosystems. This alliance enables native XRP, IOUs, and other XRPL-issued assets to move seamlessly between chains, utilizing Wormhole’s smart contract messaging tools. CTO David Schwartz emphasized this as a critical step for mass adoption, ensuring native issuance control while enabling cross-chain liquidity and interoperability.

Regulatory Overhangs Persist Amid SEC-Led Legal Gridlock

Ripple's long-standing case with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to stir market reactions. Judge Analisa Torres recently denied a joint Ripple-SEC request to dissolve the permanent injunction. Legal expert Fred Rispoli forecasts a likely $50 million settlement with mutual withdrawal of appeals, maintaining the precedent that XRP is not a security. Until formal resolution, legal noise remains a key catalyst for short-term price reactions.

Key Support and Resistance Levels in Play

After rebounding from $1.91, XRP’s immediate resistance sits at $2.22 (100-day SMA) and $2.40 (200-day SMA). Analysts highlight $2.25 and $2.69 as the next retracement checkpoints. On the downside, $2.05 and $1.92 are near-term supports, with safety zones near $1.79 and $1.61. Breaking below $2.00 may activate deeper corrections unless bulls reclaim $2.20 with conviction.

Utility Expansion and Real-World Asset Integration

Beyond legal hurdles, Ripple is aggressively scaling XRPL’s functionality. At the APEX 2025 summit, updates including TokenEscrow, Batch Transactions, and five new stablecoins were introduced. The firm is also building tokenized real-world asset capabilities. These enhancements target growing institutional interest, especially with partners like Bank of America reportedly joining Ripple’s network.

Market Sentiment Reflects Long-Term Bullishness Despite Short-Term Pain

XRP community voices remain optimistic. Analysts like DustyBC argue XRP is undervalued below $2, while others liken the current chart to its 2017 surge setup. Analyst Mikybull Crypto sees a path to $14 if momentum mirrors the previous bull cycle. Volume patterns indicate buyer strength; sellers haven’t formed new lows despite volatility, and compressed price action may precede a major breakout.

Ambitious Price Projections Emerge from AI Forecast Models

Advanced AI models suggest wildly divergent timelines for XRP's ambitious targets.

• ChatGPT projects $200 XRP by 2029–2031 at 100% CAGR, or by 2027 at 150% CAGR.

• Google Gemini foresees $200 as early as 2026–2028 if ETF launches and full adoption materialize.

• Grok AI ties the $200–$400 range to XRP replacing SWIFT in global settlements, possibly between 2032–2040.

• Changelly and Telegaon project $222–$408 by 2040–2050, assuming Ripple captures global remittance share.

Despite the optimism, all models acknowledge that XRP would need to gain nearly 10,000%–20,000% to reach triple digits. The current market cap and lack of full institutional adoption mean that while such targets aren’t impossible, they demand transformational changes in the global financial infrastructure.

Verdict: XRP-USD is a Speculative Hold with High Beta Breakout Potential

While Ripple’s technical outlook remains bearish below $2.15, structural improvements, cross-chain integrations, and long-term legal clarity position XRP-USD as a high-beta play on institutional crypto adoption. The price must break $2.40 for sustained upside. Short-term downside risk remains high, but long-term tailwinds offer asymmetric reward. Hold unless a clear breakout or breakdown confirms new directional momentum.

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