XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD at $1.87: ETF Hunger and Vanishing Supply Put a $2.10 Breakout Back on the Table

XRP-USD at $1.87: compressed price, structural squeeze building under the surface

ETF demand for XRP quietly rewrites the order book

XRP sits around $1.87 with a market cap near $113.2 billion and roughly 60.57 billion coins circulating out of a 100 billion maximum supply, while daily volume hovers around $1.06 billion. That price level may look uninspiring after a spike toward $3.50–$3.65 earlier in 2025, but the demand profile behind XRP-USD is very different from the last cycle.
Spot XRP ETFs launched only recently and have already attracted more than $1 billion of assets, with total ETF AUM around $1.3 billion. Estimates point to roughly 750 million XRP absorbed by six spot funds since November, a structural buyer pool that did not exist during the previous 580% rally in late 2024 and early 2025.
Those products matter because they convert intermittent retail speculation into steady institutional flows. Every creation unit that goes into an ETF removes more XRP from the liquid float and parks it in long-term vehicles that are far less likely to dump on short-term volatility. If those inflows persist into 2026 at anything close to current cadence, the underlying demand curve for XRP-USD shifts higher even if headline price looks quiet now.

Shrinking exchange balances tighten the free float of XRP

On-chain data backs that structural story. Early 2025 saw about 4 billion XRP sitting on centralized exchanges. That number has trended relentlessly lower and is now near 1.5 billion, the lowest in more than a year.
This matters more than the day-to-day candles. When exchange balances fall while price drifts sideways, it means coins are being pulled off trading venues into cold storage, custody, and ETF structures rather than recycled into every minor bounce. The combination of ~750 million XRP locked into spot ETFs and the broader drawdown from 4 billion to 1.5 billion on exchanges effectively strips a big chunk of immediately sellable supply out of the market.
The net effect is simple: when demand finally accelerates, XRP-USD will be trying to reprice against a thinner order book than the one that capped previous rallies. That is why a flat tape at $1.87 with shrinking exchange balances is much more bullish than a flat tape at the same price with 4 billion tokens sitting on exchanges.

Price structure: descending channels, $1.80–$1.87 support and $2.05–$2.50 resistance for XRP-USD

Technically, XRP is still working through a corrective phase. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has been locked inside a descending channel since the $2.11 peak earlier this month. Each bounce has produced a lower high, but the slope of that channel has started to flatten, a sign that sellers are losing marginal control.
Short-term structure is defined by a tight cluster of levels. The 50-period EMA on the 4-hour sits near $1.88 and the 100-period EMA around $1.92. Price is pinned just underneath both, with the moving averages flattening. That configuration is the classic compression setup: no clear trend, but energy building for a directional break.
Immediate support has formed in the $1.85–$1.87 band, with buyers repeatedly stepping in as XRP-USD probes that zone. Lose that area, and the next technical shelves come in near $1.77 and then around $1.65, close to the lower boundary of the broader channel.
On the higher time frame, the daily chart still shows XRP capped by a larger descending structure that began after the prior blow-off. The overhead problem is clear: former support in the $2.40–$2.50 range has flipped into resistance and now aligns with key moving averages. Until XRP-USD can reclaim that zone and break out of the descending channel, any rallies are structurally corrective, not confirmed trend reversals.

Momentum and volatility: exhaustion signs without a confirmed reversal in XRP-USD

Momentum indicators support the idea that sellers are running out of room but have not yet been fully overrun. On the 4-hour chart, RSI has stabilized in the low 50s, a neutral zone that sits well away from oversold territory and shows neither panic nor euphoria. There is no clear bearish divergence, which lowers immediate breakdown risk, but the indicator also isn’t flashing a clean bullish impulse yet.
On the weekly time frame, stochastic RSI has pushed into extreme oversold territory after the retreat from mid-2025 highs near $3.50. That kind of signal typically appears late in a down-leg, when forced sellers have already acted and marginal supply is thin. Combined with the long consolidation around $1.90–$2.00, it argues that the next major move is more likely to be up than down, even if the path is noisy.
Volatility itself has compressed. Candles have shrunk into spinning tops and doji formations, with tight ranges clustering around the $1.85–$1.90 zone. Flattening EMAs and narrowing price swings usually precede an expansion in either direction, which aligns with the structural picture of a market that is close to a decision point rather than safely trending.

Regulatory clarity and Ripple’s payments strategy underpin the XRP macro case

The legal overhang that dogged XRP for years has effectively been cleared in 2025, providing the regulatory certainty institutions needed to move size. That clarity is the precondition for everything happening now: spot ETF approvals, treasury-style accumulation vehicles, and renewed interest from financial firms that previously sat on the sidelines.
On the utility side, Ripple has spent 2025 deepening its role in cross-border payments and institutional infrastructure. The launch of Ripple Prime and a series of partnerships in Asia and Latin America embed XRP into real transaction flows rather than leaving it as a purely speculative token. Those deals are about using XRP as a liquidity and settlement asset for corridors where traditional banking rails are slow or fragile.
Add emerging use-cases like crypto payroll and financial inclusion in inflation-hit economies, and the long-term argument is straightforward: if Ripple keeps integrating XRP into actual payment systems, every on-chain token becomes a claim on a network with growing economic throughput instead of just a chip on a casino table. That does not guarantee price appreciation, but it builds a fundamental floor under the narrative.

Institutional structures: XRP ETFs, treasury buyers and the Evernorth effect

Beyond ETFs, a second institutional layer is forming in the shape of XRP treasury companies. These vehicles raise capital specifically to accumulate XRP, mirroring the playbook that converted Bitcoin into a corporate “treasury asset” in prior cycles.
The standout case is Evernorth Holdings, a $1 billion public company backed by Ripple that now holds roughly 473 million XRP, valued near $900 million at recent prices. In a best-case scenario for bulls, Evernorth evolves into XRP’s version of an aggressive anchor buyer: stepping in on sharp dips, absorbing supply during panic, and reinforcing confidence that large pools of capital are committed at lower levels.
Layer that on top of the six spot ETFs that have already soaked up around 750 million tokens, and the picture is clear. A growing share of the float is controlled by entities with multi-year horizons rather than day-traders. That concentration cuts both ways—liquidity can thin out during shocks—but it heavily tilts the medium-term balance of power away from weak-hand selling.

Big upside narratives for XRP-USD: the $8–$10 debate and what would need to happen

The aggressive scenario being discussed in the market is XRP-USD running from roughly $2 toward the $8–$10 region within the next couple of years. The roadmap behind that view is layered rather than magical.
First, ETF demand alone could rationally push price back into the $3–$4 band. In mid-2025 XRP printed highs around $3.50, and in July it touched about $3.65 on a 52-week basis without the benefit of a fully built-out ETF complex or the current supply squeeze on exchanges. A sustained, multi-quarter run of net inflows into ETFs and treasuries would make a retest of that zone entirely plausible.
Second, if treasury companies continue to scale—Evernorth being the template—persistent deep-pocket bids can drag XRP-USD into the $5 region over time, especially if those buyers are vocal about their strategy. Every large disclosed purchase reduces uncertainty and emboldens other allocators.
The final leg of the ultra-bullish narrative is a Ripple IPO. With private valuations around $40 billion, a successful listing that pushes toward or beyond a $100 billion market cap would almost certainly ignite speculative flows into XRP, given the tight branding link between the token and the company. Large banks and funds anchoring an IPO book would effectively validate the thesis that Ripple’s infrastructure—and by association XRP—has durable economic value.
Some banks have already floated paths with XRP near $8 by end-2026, $10 by 2027, and $12.50 by 2028. Pulling $10 forward into 2026 would require almost everything to go right: uninterrupted ETF inflows, more treasury adopters, strong macro liquidity, and a high-profile IPO. That is a tail scenario, not a base case, but the path is at least numerically coherent rather than pure fantasy.

Bearish overlay: why XRP-USD still looks corrective below $2.40–$2.50

The structural bear case is simple and cannot be ignored. XRP remains trapped within descending channels on both lower and higher time frames, below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages and below the prior support band at $2.40–$2.50.
Repeated failures to reclaim that zone reinforce it as a supply wall. Every rally that stalls there confirms that longer-term holders are still using strength to reduce risk. As long as XRP-USD trades under those dynamic and horizontal resistances, the dominant structure is a corrective downtrend punctuated by sharp counter-trend bounces, not a clean new bull leg.
On the downside, the key levels are clear. A break of the $1.85–$1.80 floor opens $1.77 as an obvious next target, with $1.65 sitting near the lower channel line. Lose $1.65 on a closing basis and the market will start to talk about a full unwind of the last major rally. In that scenario, ETF and treasury demand would be tested against an avalanche of capitulation supply.
There is also behavioral risk. XRP has a history of overpromising and underdelivering, and the community’s hype cycles are notorious. If ETFs plateau, Ripple’s business momentum slows, or the IPO narrative fizzles, the market will discount the grand $8–$10 stories fast. A token that has not convincingly broken above $4 in its history does not earn a double-digit valuation path by rhetoric alone.

Risk-reward map: how the current XRP setup stacks for aggressive capital

From a pure risk-reward standpoint, the current zone around $1.80–$1.90 is important because it marries structural compression with visible support.
Upside milestones are layered as follows:
$1.92 — reclaiming the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour and flipping short-term momentum
$2.05–$2.10 — taking out the top of the recent descending channel and validating a near-term breakout
$2.40–$2.50 — regaining the prior higher-time-frame support band and signaling that the corrective structure is breaking
$3.00–$3.50 — retesting the 2025 highs, where profit-taking will be heavy
Above that, targets in the $5–$8 zone move from fantasy to discussion only if fundamentals and flows align as outlined earlier.
On the downside, $1.80 and then $1.65 are the lines that matter. A disciplined speculative framework would treat any sustained break below $1.65 as a structural invalidation for the medium-term bull thesis. Below that, you are no longer buying compression with a supply squeeze; you are buying into a market that has failed to hold multiple key demand zones.

Verdict on XRP-USD: speculative Buy, structurally bullish with clear downside lines

Putting the pieces together—ETF absorption above $1 billion, exchange balances sliding from roughly 4 billion to about 1.5 billion XRP, treasury-style accumulation led by a 473-million-coin holder, regulatory clarity, and Ripple’s growing payments footprint—supports a structurally bullish view on XRP-USD over a 12–24 month horizon.
Technicals do not yet confirm a new bull trend, but they show exhaustion rather than fresh downside energy: weekly momentum oversold, 4-hour EMAs flattening, and price holding firm above the $1.80 demand band while compression tightens.
On that basis, XRP is best classified as a speculative Buy with a bullish bias, not a conservative hold. The call hinges on three conditions:
Price must hold above roughly $1.65 on a closing basis.
Spot ETF and treasury demand must at least remain stable, ideally expanding through 2026.
Ripple must continue to convert legal clarity into real payment volume and institutional partnerships.
If those conditions stand, a return toward the $3–$4 zone looks reasonable, and a move into the $5–$8 bracket becomes possible if macro liquidity and a Ripple listing tailwind align. If price loses $1.65 and ETF flows stall, the thesis flips quickly from constructive to broken, and the label shifts from Buy to Avoid until a new base is built.

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